NFL play selections continue to ROCK and ROLL for the King! Last Sunday, we came out firing with our 5***** NFL Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR. I spent over 20 hours researching the play..... and the outcome was very favorable to us. In fact, I was so burnt out after handicapping Championship Weekend that I had to take a full 7 days off after that. Since returning, KING CREOLE SPORTS has gone a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in the NBA.... and 1-0 ATS in College Hoops. Maybe I should take a 1-week 'hiatus' a little more often! Thanks to all who joined us for the BEST BET winner. You can see from our write-up that we spent a s**tload of time handicapping the play. Here's the 1200-word writeup if you missed it (Yes, HARD work does INDEED pay off):
6:30pm ET / NFC Championship / NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
5**** BEST BET Playoff GAME of the YEAR on: OVER THE TOTAL
It's important that you can get an OU line of LESS than 40 points
in this game. It opened at 43.5 points and has been going down all week
based on the current inclement weather forecast for Sunday night in
Green Bay. BLAH-BLAH-BLAH.... For some reason, 'SQUARE' players still
think that cold weather and snow AUTOMATICALLY equals an 'UNDER'.
Nothing could be further from the truth. I think last Saturday's
results in Green Bay finally DISPROVE that logic for most of the
gamblers than can't seem to think 'outside the box'. The 42-20 Packer
win over Seattle (we were also on the OVER in that game) on Saturday
was a winner by over 3 touchdowns. And one can arguably make the case
that bad weather usually results in more turnovers than usual.... a
shorter field to traverse AFTER those turnovers.... and QUICK POINTS
are usually the result. Just ask Seattle, who went up 14-0 4 MINUTES
into the game based on 2 quick Green Bay turnovers. The game actually
went OVER the total before they even got to halftime! So in conclusion,
with an over-adjustment of the OU line by oddsmakers... and the
subsequent torrent of Under wagers by squares.... one can make the case
that the value in bad weather games is actually on the OVER.
As I am an avid follower of "key numbers" in regards to NFL Over /
Under lines, I once again state that your line in this game must be
39.5 or less points. There is a chance that this game finishes with
EXACTLY 40 or 41 combined points by both teams. So your OU line must be
one in which you will cash a WINNER on the "OVER" if that final score
scenario (40-41 points) actually occurs. If that means BUYING it down
to 39.5 points or less, I would seriously consider it. There are MANY
possible (and popular) final scores that could very easily finish on
one of these two numbers (40-41)..... particularly based on the current
pointspread. With Green Bay favored by 7 points in the game, here are
some potential final scores that are likely to occur: 24-17 and 23-17.
Now let's take a look at a few more outcomes that fall right on 40 or
41 that could indeed occur: 21-20, 27-13, 27-14, 28-13, 31-10, 33-7,
and 34-7.
Most people who purchase our plays already know that we primarily
handicap from a "SYSTEM Standpoint". That is, we plug-in numerous
scenarios and situations based on game line, OU line, previous result
for both teams, previous points scored (and allowed) for both teams,
the current site (and previous sites), the divisions involved, and
current ATS and OU 'streaks' for both teams. With that said, we
confidently submit a ton of OU Systems in regards to this game.
First off, here are some OU Systems for the NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES:
NFL Championship games gave gone 9-2 O/U overall 'across the board' since the 2002 season.
NFL Championship teams off a SU win of 14 < points (GBAY) have gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in the last 6 years.
NFL Championship teams playing in their third STRAIGHT road game (NYG) are a PERFECT 2-0 O/U in the last 10 years.
NFL Championship favorites of -14 < points are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U since 1999 after scoring 28+ points (GBAY).
NFL Championship games in which the NFC NORTH Division team is the 'host' (GBAY) are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U in the last 10 years.
NFL Championship games in which the NFC EAST Division team is the 'visitor' (NYG) are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U in the last 10 years.
NFL Championship home teams who average 4.3 or
more yards-per-rush on the season (GBAY) are 6-1 O/U since 1995.
NFL Championship home teams who ALSO played at home in each of their last 2 games (GBAY) are 5-1-1 O/U since 1995.
NFL Championship games in which the OU line is 37 to 40.5 points have gone 6-1-1 O/U dating all the way back to 1981.
Now, let's take a look at some key OU Systems that pertain to ALL NFL Playoff games:
NFL PLAYOFF favorites after a game in which they rushed for 200+ yards (GBAY) are 9-3 O/U... and 5-1 O/U in the last 4 years.
Since 1999, NFL PLAYOFF home teams off a PLAYOFF win in which they
rushed for 150+ yards (GBAY) are 5-1-1 o/U.... and 3-0-1 O/U after
rushing for 200+ yards (GBAY).
NFL PLAYOFF teams who allowed 17 < points in each of their last
two games (NYG) are 16-5 O/U.... and 4-1 O/U in the Conference
Championship round.
NFL PLAYOFF games in which an NFC NORTH teams is the host against a non-division opponent have gone 7-1 O/U since 2002.
NFL PLAYOFF underdogs of 7 > points off a SU win with 90 or less RUSHING yards (NYG) are 5-1 O/U since 2001.
NFL PLAYOFF home teams are 4-0-1 O/U since 2001 after scoring 40 or MORE points (GBAY).
Here's a couple of Playoff Systems that really have me licking my
chops. The Systems are based on teams playing of a DOG win (or multiple
dog wins like the NY Giants): NFL PLAYOFF teams are 18-4 O/U if they
won each of their last two games as an Underdog (NYG). And UNDERDOGS in
this role (like the Giants) are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U since 2000. Also, NFL
PLAYOFF road teams playing off BB
PLAYOFF DOG wins (NYG) are 5-1 O/U.
Now let's take a look at current OU streaks. The Packers are in the
same boat as the Jacksonville Jaguars were last week. And that's a
Playoff team off a SHITLOAD of 'OVERS' in a row.
NFL PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff 'OVER' (GBAY).... and 3 or more
'OVERS' before that (4-0 O/U last 4 or higher) are 8-2 O/U (GBAY)....
and a PERFECT 3-0 O/U as Playoff FAVORITES.
NFL PLAYOFF teams off 5 or more 'OVERS' in a row (GBAY) are 8-1 O/U.
NFL PLAYOFF teams off 6 or more 'OVERS' in a row (GBAY) are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U.
You might be concerned that the Giants have actually gone 'UNDER
the Total' in both of their Playoff games in the last two weeks. I know
I was concerned. But the database tells us not to worry. Here's your OU
'clincher': NFL PLAYOFF teams who are off back-to-back Playoff 'UNDERS'
have gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U since the 1993 season (NYG)!
Don't let the cold weather at Lambeau Field throw you off. In our
final query of the extensive and exhaustive Playoff GAME of the YEAR
write-up and analysis, I checked previous Packer Playoff results.
GREEN BAY is 15-8 O/U in ALL Playoff games since 1981.... 5-1 O/U
vs the NFC East Division.... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the NFL
Championship or Super Bowl.
Good luck to all this week. Despite the fact that we are advising
an OU line of 39.5 or less points, our OU 'models' suggest a final
score of 28-24. So this is indeed a 5* BEST BET regardless of the OU
line at kickoff. The smart player WILL shop for the best line though...
