The tendency for most sharp players will be to POUND the 'OVERS' in week three of the pre-season, and they have good reason too when you think about it. It's usually a good dress rehearsal week. As a result, you often see very strong performances from the first team offenses in those next-to-last games. But before you blindly bet on EVERY 'Over' this weekend, let's take a look at some of the actual previous results from our Playbook pre-season database. The results tell me that this is not the SLAM DUNK week that you might think it is... in terms of 'Overs'.
Our research covers every week three pre-season game played during this decade. The overall OU results in this week are only 64-55-6 O/U. That's only a blanket 54% OVER percentage in every game. Not quite the dominating numbers that one might think. So we will have to exercise extreme caution this week. Make sure to pick and choose the RIGHT OU situations. Here's the breakdown for each season:
2007: 8-6-1 O/U
2006: 8-7 O/U
2005: 6-10 O/U
2004: 6-8 O/U
2003: 10-5-1 O/U
2002: 8-8 O/U
2001: 8-8 O/U
2000: 10-3-1 O/U
There's were only two significant clear-cut 'OVER' years (2003 and 2000).
Now let's breakdown our decade-long 64-55-6 O/U record a little further:
Home FAVS are 52-39--3 O/U... while Home DOGS are 12-16-3 O/U.
Home off a SU loss: 30-29-2 O/U. Opponent off SU loss: 13-17 O/U. Opponent off SU win: 17-12 O/U.
Home off a SU win: 34-26-4 O/U. Opponent off SU loss: 18-12 O/U. Opponent off SU win: 8-8 O/U.
Home off BACK-to-BACK SU losses: 16-12-2 O/U.
Home off BACK-to-BACK SU wins: 18-11-1 O/U.
Away off BACK-to-BACK SU losses: 13-14-4 O/U.
Away off BACK-to-BACK SU wins: 14-14-2 O/U.
Let's take a look at this week's Over / Under LINE RANGE:
Week Three w/ OU line 35 < points: 14-9 O/U
Week Three w/ OU line 35.5 to 36.5 points: 8-13 O/U
Week Three w/ OU line 37 to 38.5 points: 15-18 O/U
Week Three w/ OU line 39 to 40.5 points: 17-5 O/U
Week Three w/ OU line 41 > points: 10-10 O/U
I'll wrap up this week's blog on a POLITICAL note....
The Democratic Convention starts Monday, August 25th in Denver, Colorado. Let's hope that it will be the "finest hour' for the Democatic party... and they blow the tops off the Rocky Mountains!
Although I am a registered INDEPENDENT, I think you can guess which way I will be voting in the fall..... if you have read any of my previous blogs! I will also point out that in my business (sports gaming), it is much more beneficial for all parties concerned if a democrat wins the presidential election in the fall rather than a republican. It's also important (in regards to sports wagering) that we get more democrats elected in congress (House and Senate) than republicans. Remember how easy it was to go online and create a sports book account when Bill Clinton was in office? The current republican administration has done everything that they can in the last 7 years to make it more DIFFICULT for us to wager online. Just as Senator JOHN KYL.... who happens to be the 'other' senator in the state that John McCain hails from (Arizona). I don't know about you.... but NOBODY tells me what I can and can't do with my discretionary income. Other countries get it right.... why the F**K can't we? They regulate and tax their gambling industries accordingly, and EVERYONE makes out. It's a "WIN / WIN" situation for all!
If you believe that all Americans have the right to do whatever they want in terms of spending their money, then you really only have ONE side to choose in November. Then again, you can always 'drink the kool-aid' and play right into the FEAR card. But remember what happened to all those folks at Jonestown who did indeed DRINK the KOOL-AID!
Comments