Marc Lawrence Sports Handicapping News

Puttin' On The Stats - Week 2

Last Week in College Football…

Each week on this blog I'll share with you valuable ITS (INSIDE THE STATS) information on both the College and NFL cards.  Our primary quest is to ferret out the teams who won a game last week but were outgained in the victory.

Here are the INSIDE OUT Stat teams from teams who won the game but lost the yardage last week.  100-plus yard differentials in bold.   Beginning in October we'll begin to dissect these stats as the season moves on.

Alabama        172-318
Georgia Tech    235-262
Iowa State        374-410
Nebraska        316-353
Northwestern    328-472
Notre Dame    342-345
Rice            430-523
Texas        404-412
Texas A&M    236-370
Texas Tech    421-488
SMU            431-465
Vanderbilt        223-325
Wake Forest    348-360
W Michigan    384-439

Back next week with more stats…

Back next week with more stats…

Last Week in College Football…

Each week on this blog I'll share with you valuable ITS (INSIDE THE STATS) information on both the College and NFL cards.  Our primary quest is to ferret out the teams who won a game last week but were outgained in the victory.

Here are the INSIDE OUT Stat teams from teams who won the game but lost the yardage last week.  100-plus yard differentials in bold.   Beginning in October we'll begin to dissect these stats as the season moves on.

Alabama        172-318
Georgia Tech    235-262
Iowa State        374-410
Nebraska        316-353
Northwestern    328-472
Notre Dame    342-345
Rice            430-523
Texas        404-412
Texas A&M    236-370
Texas Tech    421-488
SMU            431-465
Vanderbilt        223-325
Wake Forest    348-360
W Michigan    384-439

Back next week with more stats…

Back next week with more stats…

Take The Knee!

Some coaches have a kill-mentality.  Others are simply interested in winning games and moving on. 

Urban Meyer's M.O. has been to pile on the points and beat the spread, especially at home.  He's now 51-31-1 against the spread in all games, including 28-12-1 at home.  At Bowling Green his average home win margin was 22.4 PPG.  At Utah it was 27.7 PPG.  And at Florida it's now 28.1 PPG.  He really chews up and spits out non-conference teams, going 28-3 straight-up and 24-4 against the spread, including 19-0 straight-up and 15-1 against the spread at home. Thanks to a meaningless, last minute score Miami became another of those victims last night. 

FAU’s Howard Schnellenberger figures he needs every impressive win his upstart program can muster.  How else can you explain not taking a knee with an 8-point lead and the ball at your own 21-yard line in the final 40 seconds of the game? Instead, eschewing the risk of a fumble, he opts to run the ball and is rewarded with a 79-yard score to win by 15 points (as a 14-point favorite).

On the flip side, Michigan's Rich Rodriguez had a similar opportunity to punch in a late score when the Wolverines took over the ball with less than a minute remaining at their own 10-yard line.  Rather than running up the score, Rodriguez opted to take a knee, twice.

It’s funny but sometimes our handicapping efforts simply comes down to taking a knee to the nuts, if you know what I mean…

Last Week In College Football

Last Week in College Football…

With the 2008 college football season now underway, let’s take a look at teams who won games INSIDE OUT (won the game but lost the stats) last week.

As the season progresses we will present a weekly statistical tally of how teams are doing ITS (In The Stats).  For now here are the INSIDE OUT Stat teams from the opening week of the season who won the game but lost the yardage.  100-plus yards in bold:

Arkansas State            303-300
Bowling Green            254-393
Louisiana Tech          269-348
Mississippi                  438-453
Stanford                       301-490
Ucla                              288-366
West Virginia            354-399
Wyoming                    271-287

Back next week with more stats…

New Coaches Struggle In Debuts

As outlined in the current edition of the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter (Issue 2), new college football coaches struggle against the spread in their first game.

That is confirmed by the fact that, heading into the 2008 season, they were a collective 77-105-6 ATS since 1990.

The best role in which to fade these new mentors is when they are favored in the debuts. Chart the new coaches this year and watch your starting bankroll fatten up just in time for the season ahead...

Let The Man Play...

Just my personal opinion but how many players in the NFL would turn their head on a Hall of Fame quarterback that wants to play for their team?  Especially one that knows the system like the back of his hand.

Aaron Rodgers may be the Packers' QB of the future but the time is now for Brett Favre.  Let the man play - and may the best man win!

Gimme A Break

GIMME A BREAK...

The 2008 football season isn't here yet and already I'm being flooded with propaganda from at least a dozen handicappers proclaiming to be No. 1.  What a joke.

For openers, if the capper is not monitored and documented you can rest assured the claims are false.  If you're going tow swin with the sharks you'd better check the waters before you dive in.  In other words, verifiy with legitimate monitors (Sports Monitor in Oklahoma and Sports Watch in Texas) the actual records of those doing the boasting.

The bottom line is you must  feel comfortable in knowing the people you're investing in are legitimate handicappers doing their work and not some hard-sell boiler-room operation looks to scam you for every dollar they can.

In this business it's Caveat Emptor - more so than most others - Let The Buyer Beware!

PLAYBOOK GOES GREEN!

I hope you have been enjoying the ‘off-season’ and are as excited as we are in anticipation of the 2008 football season just ahead.

This important announcement -   PLAYBOOK GOES GREEN!

Beginning this year, the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter is GOING GREEN.  We will no longer be printing the weekly newsletter.  Instead, it will be available online only, the same as the PLAYBOOK Basketball Newsletter.  What this means for you is:

• Faster Delivery – the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter will be available for download or internet delivery every Tuesday after 1:00 PM ET throughout the season.
• Better Analysis and More Accurate Results – having an extra day to study the line moves and deeply examine the stats, the game writeups and analysis will better reflect every aspect of each game.
• Lower Cost – We are scaling back prices to 1999! See our special ROLLBACK PRICES now in effect below.
• Bigger Bolder Easier To Read – the new online PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter will be published in an 8.5 x 11 full page format with bigger print size, making it easier to than ever read.
• Doing Our Share – By saving on paper we save on trees which helps our ecology.  It makes for a better America, at a time we need to make America better.

PLAYBOOK ROLLS BACK PRICES TO 1999!
To celebrate PLAYBOOK GOING GREEN we are rolling prices back to 1999.  That’s right, we’re going to party like it’s 1999 by making all PLAYBOOK Football Newsletters (the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter and the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT Football Newsletter) available from now until September 1st at savings of $40 by offering prices that were in effect in 1999.

To take advantage of this $40 GOING GREEN ROLLBACK SAVINGS log on to the PLAYBOOK Online Store, or at call our office Toll Free at 1. 800.752.9266 for instant service. 

And as always we'll look forward to sending you a FREE COPY of the 2008 PLAYBOOK Football Handicapper's Yearbook magazine as a FREE BONUS when you subscribe today!

College Football Preview -

The 2008 College Football season will be here before you know it. We are busy at the moment compiling the 2008 PLAYBOOK Football Handicapper Yearbook magazine (on sale at newsstands nationwide July 8th).  Each week from now until the magazine debuts we will share with you a team preview excerpt , extracted directly from the magazine. Enjoy...

FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Team Theme – HOWIE DOING
Give the man his due.  Howie Longname is getting it done, and doing so under adverse conditions. Despite a schedule that found them home only four times last season, the Owls went 8-5 with a bowl win in only their 4th season as a Division 1-A team last year.  Now that’s impressive! Schnellenberger built this program from scratch and awaits a new stadium next year.  Not that he needs a home field. Life on the road has been good for FAU and the Owls will play six of this season's first eight games away from home. The good news is 55 lettermen are back from last year’s squad, including 6’ 5” JR QB Rusty Smith, MVP of the New Orleans Bowl and SBC Player of the Year.  Smith, who has NFL scouts drooling, threw for 3,688 yards and 32 TDs last year. Yeah, they’re doing just fine in Boca these days.
PLAY ON: vs. Louisiana Monroe (10.25) - *KEY if off loss

College Football Teaser Preview -

The 2008 College Football season will be here before you know it. We are busy at the moment compiling the 2008 PLAYBOOK Football Handicapper Yearbook magazine (on sale at newsstands nationwide July 8th).  Each week from now until the magazine debuts we will share with you a team preview excerpt , extracted directly from the magazine. Enjoy...

EAST CAROLINA
Team Theme – A PIRATES BOUNTY 
When is it that a team has the makings of a dynamo, you ask?  Try one that features a roster with more than 50% upper classmen (24 seniors; 29 juniors) that tied or broke 39 individual records the previous season.  Utilizing a 2-headed quarterback system, head coach Skip Holtz wholeheartedly welcomes the return of signal callers Rob Kass and Patrick Pinkney.  Together they put more points and touchdowns on the scoreboard in one season than any other team in ECU history. Losing Chris Johnson, the nation's all-purpose yardage leader last year, certainly hurts as will opening the season in Charlotte against ACC Champ Virginia Tech and following that with a home game against Big East boss West Virginia.  After the dust settles, though, a bounty awaits when Pirates set sail against a winnable slate of opposition. Ships ahoy.
PLAY ON: vs. Virginia Tech (8/30)

College Football Teaser Preview -

The 2008 College Football season will be here before you know it. We are busy at the moment compiling the 2008 PLAYBOOK Football Handicapper Yearbook magazine (on sale at newsstands nationwide July 8th).  Each week from now until the magazine debuts we will share with you a team preview excerpt , extracted directly from the magazine. Enjoy...

DUKE
Team Theme –THE CUT(CLIFF)ING EDGE
The Roof (Phil) collapsed in Durham and a new repairman has been brought in to fix the damage.  His name is David Cutcliffe and his resume as a handyman is extensive.  He mentored Super Bowl ring owners Peyton and Eli Manning at Tennessee and Ole Miss respectively. Amazingly, in his tenure as a head coach with the Rebels, he coached Ole Miss in five bowl games, all of which were wins and pointspread covers!  This year’s Blue Devils lose five starters from last year’s squad, the fewest in the ACC.  JR QB Thaddeus Lewis keys the offense while the defense returns 10 starters from a unit that ranked 24th in the nation in tackles for a loss last season.  A strong start is imperative considering they open with four straight home games. Look for them to nail down an early win or two.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Virginia (9/27)