NCAA Tournament - East Bracket Preview

NCAA Tournament
EAST Bracket Preview

For 65 Division 1-A teams the road to San Antonio starts somewhere in a city near you.  The three-week trek in front promises to be filled with accidents (read: upsets) aplenty.

To help guide you through the exciting journey ahead, here is our take on the sixteen teams based in the East Bracket.  Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to buckle up and start your brackets.

North Carolina (1) vs. Play-In Winner (16)
We all know the story by now that a No. 16 seed has never beat a top seed in this event.   Did you know, however, that No. 1 seeds win an average 3.36 games per event in this tourney since 1985.   It’s hard to fade the top scoring margin, and best rebounding team in the land, especially with one team (Coppin State) that was 0-4 against fellow tourney teams this season by an average loss of 36.5 pgg, while the other (Mount St. Mary’s) was 1-3 against the same.  Still, with the Tar Heels just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 20 points in the tourney, it’s probably best to observe the top seed for a while.

Indiana (8) vs. Arkansas (9)
Past results from this particular conference pairing has been favorable for the Big 10, as they are 11-5 SU and ATS against the SEC in the Big Dance since 1999.  Indiana, though, has not adapted under interim coach Dan Dakich, as they are just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS since he took over from Kelvin Sampson a month ago. Red-faced Arkansas dropped a tailor-made championship against Georgia but five returning starters should help them advance out of the first round. And for what it’s worth, should the Razorbacks manage to defeat Indiana, No. 9 seeds are a pathetic 3-47 straight-up in Round Two since 1985 when taking on a higher seeded opponent. Gulp.

Notre Dame (5) vs. George Mason (12)
This is slot of the dreaded No. 12 over the No. 5 seed theory (last year was only the 2nd time since 1988 that a 12 failed to beat a 5). Notre Dame went 24-7 this year, however, the Irish were only 7-7 away from South Bend this season.  The Irish were bounced in the first round of this tourney in rather embarrassing fashion by Winthrop last season.  They’ll need to bring their ‘A” game against the Pirates, a Cinderella team in this event two years ago.  The Mason Jar is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the Big Dance this decade. 

Washington State  (4) vs. Winthrop (13)
Make no mistake, the Eagles of Winthrop can play.  They knocked off Notre Dame in the first round of this tournament last year and beat top-seeded UNC Ashville by 18-points in the Big South title game to earn this bid.  A win at Miami Florida this season further confirms that notion.  Wazzu brings solid credentials of its own, too.  A guard–oriented unit, Tony Bennett’s troops turned back tourney rivals Oregon and USC two times each while also handing Gonzaga its only home loss of the season this year. Still, asking a low scoring team (67 ppg) to win a game of this magnitude by double-digits is not our cup of tea. Take it or leave it.

Oklahoma (6) vs. St. Joseph’s (11)
Oklahoma did well to gain a No. 6 seed after finishing up 10-8 SU and 6-12 ATS in conference play this season.  The Sooners are just 3-9 ATS in NCAA openers, including 1-6 SU and ATS when facing a .612 or greater opponent.  They were also only 5-9 ATS against fellow tournament teams this season.  St. Joe’s utilized a 3-1 SU and ATS record in the A-10 tourney to gain a big into the Big Dance. Phil Martelli’s troops were 9-2 ATS outside the conference this season and are 9-2 SU in NCAA openers.  Before flying off with the Hawks, though, you need to know No. 6 seeds are 14-1- SU and 13-1-1 ATS vs .636 or less opposition.

Louisville (3) vs. Boise State (14)
Lucky No. 3 seed for the Cardinals as 18 of the last 21 NCAA champs have been No. 1, 2 or 3 seeded teams.  Louisville held their owns against other tourney teams this season, going 9-5 SU and ATS.  Also have to admire Rick Pitino’s 32-10 record in this tourney.  Behind the nation’s 7th best field goal defense, the Cards look to be a live sleeper.  Boise State was a ‘double champion’ (won regular and conference tourney titles), making them a consideration play in Game One.  The Broncos were 14-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS away from home this season and suffered only three losses by more than 12 points. Interestingly, they are the 4th best shooting team in the land (50.2%).

Butler (7) vs. South Alabama (10)
The Bulldogs performed extremely well outside the Horizon Conference this season as their 11-1 SU and 9-2 ATS record attests. They have also rewarded their backers in the first game of this tournament, going 4-10 ATS. The scales mean a lot in this paring as No. 7 seeds are 22-10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of .680 or greater. However, can’t look past the Jaguars 5-0 ATS mark this season against other tournament teams.  Unfortunately, they are an NCAA tourney virgin at 0-2 SU and ATS.

Tennessee (2) vs. American (15)
The Vols lead the pack for a lap after handing Memphis their only defeat of the season a month ago. They are the 2nd best team in this tourney in steals (9.5) and offensive rebounds (14.8) per game.  They are also the 4th best tourney team in assists per game (18.1), so they do have credentials. Meanwhile the Patriots are another ‘double champion’ and enter the tournament with 11 wins in their last 12 games. American allowed less than 66 ppg along the way. Lest we forget, Tennessee was 21-1 SU and 12-4-2 ATS this season in games in which they scored 80-plus points and 8-3 SU and 2-9 ATS in games in which they didn’t.

Be sure to download a copy of the 2008 PLAYBOOK NCAA Tournament Guide Newsletter.  It's a must-read if you're serious about winning throughout March Madness!