BIG EAST TOURNEY PREVIEW

With the College Conference Tourneys now underway, let's take a sneak peek at the BIG EAST TOURNAMENT.  Note: this excerpt is from this week's PLAYBOOK Basketball Newsletter, which features in-depth writeups and analysis on all 17 Conference Tourneys.  You can download copy from the PLAYBOOK Store.  Enjoy...

BIG EAST CONFERENCE
March 12 - 15 (All games at Madison Square Garden • New York City, NY)

PLAYBOOK PROJECTED FINAL FOUR
GEORGETOWN – LOUISVILLE – CONNECTICUT – NOTRE DAME

The way we see it: The common denominator of the top three teams in this tourney is the fact that they all reside in the Top 10 in Defensive Field Goal Percentage. GEORGETOWN is the nation’s leading stop unit (36.2%).  The Hoyas are 16-1 SU in lid lifters and not all that much thereafter.  However, should they puppy-up we’ll be on them like white-on-rice. LOUISVILLE is the No. 3 team in the land is DFG% at 37.9.  Their conference tourney history is weak (see below) but, heading into Saturday’s fray at G-Town, they were 9-4 SU and ATS away from home this season.  Like the Hoyas, the Cardinals should prove dangerous if they find themselves taking points.  CONNECTICUT is a proven post-season commodity (49-16 SU since 1996) but only mediocre in this extravaganza.  He Huskies rank No. 8 in DFG% at 38.5 and should be considered in any underdog role.  NOTRE DAME doesn’t bring the defensive intensity that the three aforementioned clubs do, but they clean the glass with proficiency, ranking No. 20 in Rebound Margin at +5.9 net RPG.  The problem is they don’t have much history to speak of in this tourney (4-12 SU and ATS) and they were 0-3 SU and ATS against .850 or better opposition this season.

THE SLEEPER: MARQUETTE
Golden Eagles bring five returning starters to the Garden, making them extremely dangerous in any matchup.  After going just 1-10-1 ATS in it their previous twelve conference tourney games, they have cashed two of their last three the past two seasons in this event.  Don’t discount their chances this year.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON MARQUETTE versus Louisville.  As outline above the Eagles bring a lot to the table, including an 8-3 ATS mark in games away from home this season.  They’ll take on the Cardinals with double revenge from losses this year knowing Louisville is just 5-11 ATS the last 16 games in this tourney.  The points are a bonus in this matchup.