Marc Lawrence Sports Handicapping News

College Hoops Midweek Preview

The gloves came off and with it no less than three Top 10 ranked teams hit the deck in a wild and wooly weekend on the college basketball front over the weekend.  As a result we have a new No.1 team and new face reemerging inside this week’s Top 10 poll.

What can we expect as an after effect of Saturday’s titanic battle between Memphis and Tennessee?  You’ll be surprised what we’ve uncovered.  Let’s take a look at what we learned over the weekend, who’s up next, and what to expect, inside this sneak peek edition of games this week…

No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers – defeated Memphis, 66-62

What we learned: Bruce Pearl and the Volunteers go together like bacon and eggs.  In his two-plus seasons with Tennessee the Vols are 71-21 overall, including 43-2 SU & 25-9-2 ATS in Knoxville and 14-9 SU & 17-6 ATS as an underdog.  His team-first concept is working as they lead the nation in Assists Per Game (18.9) and are sixth in the land in Offensive Rebounds Per Game (15.1). Being ranked higher than Pat Summitt’s Lady Vols finds them at the top of the mountain in Tennessee.

Up next: a dangerous visit to Vanderbilt Tuesday night could prove perilous to their lofty new status. The Volunteers beat the Commodores, 80-69, earlier this season and have a showdown with Kentucky on Sunday.  Andy’s 17-0 mark at home this season, and Tennessee’s 0-5 SU & ATS road record in games before facing the Wildcats against opponents off a win, doesn’t bode well for the bullseye now residing on the backs of Pearl’s pupils.

No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels – defeated Wake Forest, 89-73

What we learned: You can sense Roy Williams knows what time of the year it is.  Since Valentine’s day his troops are 3-0 SU and ATS.  That perception, however, is flawed.  According to our database, in his college head coaching career, Williams’ teams are 71-16 SU and 40-44-3 ATS during the regular season from Game 25 out, including 7-17-2 ATS as a road favorite against wining teams. They will be put to the test this weekend.

Up next: a visit to pesky Boston College on Saturday, a team the Heels hammered by 22 points earlier this season.  The one stat that jumps off the page is the Eagles’ 14-6-1 ATS mark as a dog when playing with double-digit same season loss revenge.  Check back for mode fodder when we re-visit this game in our weekend edition of the Cheat Sheet…

No. 3 Memphis Tigers – lost Tennessee, 66-62

What we learned: Top ranked, undefeated teams have a shelf life.  They are often times consumed by hungry opponents in difficult situations.  For the Tigers, the mold on their undefeated cake began appearing after they started they season 18-0.  That was confirmed by the fact they took a 2-5-1 ATS mark in their previous eight games into the frying pan with Tennessee.  The truth of the matter is Memphis now stands a better chance of winning the March Madness tournament than they would have had they entered the event undefeated.

Up next: a home game against Tulsa on Wednesday and a visit to Southern Mississippi on Saturday, teams they trounced earlier this year.  Remember this: teams off their first loss of the season, after starting 20-0 or better, are 0-5 ATS when favored by more than thirteen points in their next contest.  Couple that with the fact the home team in the Tulsa series is 0-5 ATS and suddenly there’s a good chance you’ll be fighting food poisoning should you elect to bite off a piece of the Tigers this week.

No. 4 UCLA Bruins – defeated Oregon, 75-65

What we learned: In games laced with undesirable situations (read: talented, underachieving opposition with their backs to the wall in ‘must-win’ situations) it is defense that steps up and stands tall.  The Bruins are surrendering a mere 56 PPG at home this season; 70 PPG away.  Coupled with being the No. 3 team in the nation in Rebound Margin (+10.2), they bring a lot to the table when it comes to deciding on the top four seeds in this year’s March Madness tournament.

Up next: road tests in the desert at Arizona State Thursday and Arizona Sunday will go a long way in determining whether or not UCLA is a legitimate national champion contender.  They pummeled the Sun Devils by 31 points and powered their way past the Wildcats by 22 in home wins earlier this season.  Still, even though the Bruins are 7-1 ATS on the road this season (5-0 when playing with three or more days of rest), our initial inclination is that they will not go unscathed (ATS) in the land of cactus.

No. 5 Texas Longhorns – defeated Oklahoma 62-45

What we learned: Rick Barnes has learned the hard way that you don’t win games simply by outscoring your opponent.  You win games by out defending your opponent.  In Saturday’s 17-point romp past the Sooners, Texas held Oklahoma to 14-of-53 (26%) from the field.  And just like that, the look Kansas now has is over their shoulder, peering at a fast-charging Longhorn.

Up next: after Monday’s visit to Kansas State, Texas plays its final road game of the campaign at Texas Tech on Saturday.  FYI: The Red Raiders are 4-23 SU and ATS in its last 27 games against Texas, including 0-10-1 in Lubbock.

No. 6 Duke Blue Devils – defeated St. John’s, 86--56

What we learned: After a couple of missteps, Coach K realized the importance of crushing a cripple.  Saturday’s win will hopefully serve as a confidence boost for a team badly in need of instant energy.  In the process the Blue Devils improved their prowess at home this season, now 10-2-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor Arena.

Up next: another victim sporting a handicap placard visits Wednesday when Georgia Tech brings a 0-4 SU and ATS losing streak into Durham before Duke travels to NC State on Saturday. While the Devils have dominated the Yellow Jackets in this series (25-3 SU and 20-6-1 ATS when Duke is off a win), it should be noted Tech has cashed in 8 of its last 9 tries as double-digit dogs, including 3-0 this season.

No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks – lost Oklahoma State, 61-60

What we learned: Like a doctor uses x-rays to look inside a patient, we use recent ATS results to see how a team feels.  Kansas has the flu and will need a strong antibiotic should they wish to return to health in time for the post season.  Following Saturday’s stunning loss to the Cowboys, the Jayhawks are riding a 0-6-1 ATS ledger in its last seven games.  Bill Self was last seen at a doc-in-the box following Saturday’s disaster in Stillwater.

Up next: a road game at Iowa State on Wednesday before returning home to host Kansas State in a monster revenge game Saturday should signal a sense of urgency for KU.  They rubbed out ISU, 83-59, earlier this year but were leveled by nine points at KSU, a loss that ended their 20-0 start to the season.  Good news for Jayhawks’ fans: Kansas is 6-0 ATS with three or more days of rest when playing off a straight-up double-digit loss.  Bad news: they are 7-14 ATS against the Cyclones, including 0-5 off a double-digit defeat.

No. 8 Stanford Cardinal – defeated California, 79-69

What we learned: A dangerous hurdle was avoided when the Cardinal got past arch-rival California this past Sunday in a methodical 79-69 victory.  They have been extremely stingy at home on the Farm, allowing just 55 PPG this season.  Too bad the PAC 10 or NCAA tourneys aren’t at Maples Pavilion.

Up next: an invasion of the Washingtons (Huskies on Thursday; Cougars on Saturday) completes their home slate (14-1) for the season.  Stanford owns wins and covers against both foes this season, leaving one to wonder whether a ‘grand slam’ is in order. Washington is 10-5 ATS the last fifteen tries here as a dog.

No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers – defeated Ohio State, 58-53

What we learned: Big 10 basketball can be ugly, especially when a pair of defensive stalwarts lock horns.  But ugly can win whenever motive and incentive are present.  Hence, the Badgers were able to avenge a loss to the Buckeyes from last year’s Big 10 championship game in the greatest of ways – on OSU’s homecourt.

Up next: only game on tap for the Badgers this week on Thursday and, unfortunately, the shoe is one the other foot.  Wisky hosts Michigan State, this time with the Spartans looking to avenge a loss in last year’s conference tourney.  It will ark the fourth straight revenge game for Sparty who happens to be 6-2 SU and ATS when seeking revenge from a tournament loss.  Color MSU a dangerous dog.

No. 10 Georgetown Hoyas – defeated Cincinnati, 73-53

What we learned: When push comes to shove the best way to play yourself back into the Top 10 polls is by applying a stifling defense.  The Hoyas have one and they spread it on.  As a result they are back in the talk for top seeds in the NCAA tournament.  They are also tied atop the Big East standings with Louisville, with Notre Dame and Connecticut breathing down their necks.

Up next: G-Town hosts St. John’s Wednesday before taking to the road at Marquette on Saturday.  While the Hoyas are 4-0 SU and ATS the last four meetings against the Red Storm (won 74-42 this year) they are just 2-6 ATS in games off a SU and ATS win this season.  No interest here.

Handicappers’ Notebook - A Weekend Review of the Top 10 Teams…

Handicappers’ Notebook
A Weekend Review of the Top 10 Teams…
By Marc Lawrence

With two of the nation’s Top 10 contingent suffering losses last weekend, it’s time to turn our attention to the games ahead. In addition, let’s find out what we learned from last week’s results, and what is on tap for games this week…

No. 1 Memphis Tigers - Weekend Result: Memphis 79, UAB 78
What we wrote: Biding their time from now until next week’s big showdown with Tennessee, the Tigers are taking on a look similar to the New England Patriots of the NFL.  After ripping off nine consecutive wins and covers, Memphis is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games.  Are they beginning to leak oil, ala the Pats, or are they simply bored with life in the mediocre CUSA?  What we do know is they will be on the road at UAB this Saturday and at Tulane and next Wednesday, prior to the ‘game of the year’ with the Vols next weekend.  While Memphis has dominated the Blazers of late (12-4 SU & ATS), the feeling here they are in need of a quick oil change.

WHAT WE LEARNED: You can chisel this in cement: if the Tigers plan on entering, and winning, this year’s NCAA Tournament to are going to need to begin making free throws with greater accuracy.  Maybe it’s being tight playing under the pressure at this stage of the season, but rest assured the next 12-for-22 performance from the stripe will be their last as an undefeated team.  Rallying from a 77-70 deficit with 1:30 remaining, Memphis escaped a major catastrophe when they outscored UAB 9-1 down the stretch.  Robert Varden and Chris Douglas-Roberts combined for all but 20 of their points.

UP NEXT: It’s on to Tulane this Wednesday before Saturday’s monster showdown with Tennessee.  Good thing the Tigers own the Green Wave (20-3 SU & 17-5-1 ATS), otherwise they’d possibly be a one-loss squad entering the weekend. 

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils – Weekend Result: Wake Forest 86, Duke 73
What we wrote: As impressive as the Devils have been of late, potential bad news looms on the horizon for Coach K’s crew.  With visits scheduled at Wake Forest on Saturday, and at Miami on Wednesday, Duke will need to avoid a plague that has enveloped this team this entire decade.  Namely, they seem to hit a wall during the regular season after Game 20.  That’s confirmed by their 32-41 ATS mark since 2000, including 27-41 ATS when not playing off a double-digit loss from Game 21 out.  Worse, they are 9-24 ATS in the road at this stage of the season off a win or loss of less than ten points.  They’ve owned both foes of late, going 20-3 SU & 18-5 ATS against the Demons (although just 6-4 ATS at Winston-Salem) and 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS against the Canes.  Let’s see if the ‘blackjack curse’ continues.

WHAT WE LEARNED: It’s strange what one basket in another game can mean to other teams in the college basketball world.  Had Memphis not scored with 10 seconds remaining at UAB Saturday night, Duke would have been in the catbird’s seat to become the No. 1 team in the land with a win at Wake Forest on Sunday.  The Tigers converted and as a result the Blue Devils came up flat. Don’t’ expect this team to say down too long, however, as they are 10-2 SU & ATS in their last twelve conference games when playing off a double-digit loss.

UP NEXT: A visit to South Beach to take on Miami this Wednesday before returning home to host Big East invader St. John’s on Saturday. The Hurricanes look to be the perfect fodder as Duke is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in this series since Miami entered the ACC in 2005.   

No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks - Weekend Result: Kansas 69, Colorado 45
What we wrote: Only one game is on tap for the Jayhawks this week as they return home off Monday’s disappointing loss at Texas to host Colorado this Saturday.  And according to our database you do not want to be wearing a Buffaloes’ jersey this weekend.  Not only does Kansas own Colorado in this series (37-1 SU & 27-12 ATS), KU coach Bill Self has been like money in the bank in games off a loss in his college head coaching career, going 69-19 SU & 45-27-2 ATS during his tenure with Tulsa, Illinois and Kansas.  Inside those numbers is a super-tough 30-3 SU & 24-8-1 ATS log when playing at home off a defeat.  The perfect patsy meets the brazened bully.

WHAT WE LEARNED: Once a dominator, always a dominator. Or so it seems when it comes to Jayhawk basketball and Big 12 patsies.  The fact of the matter, though, is – 24-point win aside - they have not covered a number in any of their last seven games (0-6-1 ATS) and now take off to the road at sites against a pair of foes that have given them fits of late. 

UP NEXT: First stop will be this Saturday at Oklahoma State where the Cowboys are 6-5 SU & 6-3-2 against Kansas.  From there it’s on to Iowa State, where KU is 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS in Ames the last nine visits. They can stamp themselves as the team to beat the Big 12 Conference (read: No.1 seed) should they return unscathed.

No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers - Weekend Result: Tennessee 74, Georgia 71
What we wrote: Despite defensive deficiencies the Vols continue their winning ways.  Wednesday’s win-and-cover over Arkansas increased UT’s record against winning opposition to 13-1 SU & 9-5 ATS this season.  Inside those numbers they sand a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS as a visitor against the same.  This Saturday they travel to Georgia to take on the 12-10 Bulldogs, a team they defeated, 85-69, earlier this year in Knoxville.  Even though Tennessee is 17-4 ATS in this series, including 9-0 ATS when playing off back-to-back victories, we’re not crazy about laying significant points on a court that has seen the Dawgs win 24 of its last 29 games.

WHAT WE LEARNED: It’s tough, very tough, laying more than a handful of points on strong foreign courts.  Despite not scoring in the final 3:50 of the game, the Vols hung on for a three-point win at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens Saturday, where Georgia is 24-6 in its last thirty contests. 

UP NEXT: Tennessee hosts Auburn Wednesday evening before Saturday’s heavyweight brawl with Memphis.  One might say the Vols have held the cards at home against the Tigers (7-2 ATS last nine games).  We say it’s a card game we’re not interested in, especially considering Auburn’s 8-2 ATS log a s a dog of more than 15 points against opponents off back-to-back wins. Pass on this deal.

No. 5 North Carolina Tar Heels - Weekend Result: North Carolina 92, Virginia Tech 54
What we wrote: After a scintillating start to the season (15-0 SU & 12-1 ATS), the Tar Heels have leveled off since entering conference play (9-2 SU & 5-5 ATS).  The will take the court at the Dean Smith Dome with double incentive from a pair of losses suffered last year against Virginia Tech.  Hopefully head coach Roy Williams will be able to parlay that motive along with his masterful career record at home against opponents off a loss (102-4 SU & 52-33 ATS).  FYI: when Williams is at home with revenge against a foe off a loss he is 9-3 to the number.  And this from our trusty database – the Hokies are 0-8 ATS in straight-up losses against an opponent playing with double-revenge from the previous season. No Gobbler for us this weekend.

WHAT WE LEARNED: When focused, Carolina is a very dangerous team. Or, better worded, when the Tar Heels play defense they become a feared opponent for any team.  On Saturday they improved to 19-0 SU & 15-2 ATS in games this season in which they hold an opponent under the 80-point scoring barrier.  Conversely, they are 6-2 SU & 3-4 ATS when they’ve surrendered 80 or more.  Then again, it’s more likely a personality trait of head coach Roy Williams.  Since 1990 at Kansas, and currently with Carolina, his teams are 439-60 SU & 261-166-7 ATS when allowing less than 80 points and just 63-56 SU & 32-80-1 ATS when coughing up 80-plus points.

UP NEXT: A dangerous visit looms at rival NC State this Wednesday before return home Sunday to host Wake Forest.  If going into revenge from a 93-62 waxing earlier this season isn’t difficult enough, the Heels must contend with the Wolfpack’s 8-5 ATS mark as a series host, including 4-0 when State is off a loss of more than three points.

No. 6 UCLA Bruins – Weekend Result: UCLA 56, USC 46
What we wrote: The Bruins travel cross town Sunday to take on city rival USC in a rematch from earlier this season in a game that saw the Trojans shock UCLA, 72-63, as double-digit dogs.  The good news for the Bruins is they are 6-1 ATS away from home this year, the only loss a 71-61 defeat at Washington last Saturday.  Better news is their sterling record on the road (31-16-1 ATS) and in games with conference revenge (18-7 ATS) under head coach Ben Howland.  Don’t like the fact, though, they are just 13-31-1 ATS laying points under Howland in games in which they fail to score 70 points. Given USC’s defensive pedigree, and their propensity for covering games under head coach Tim Floyd (49-29-2 ATS, including 25-11-1 ATS as a dog), we’ll play contrarians and look the Trojans way once again.

WHAT WE LEARNED:  When push comes to shove, the Bruins are an excellent defensive bunch.  The same defensive prowess is what will likely label them as Final Four contenders once the Big Dance tips.  It also makes them a risky proposition laying big lumber in non-important games.

UP NEXT: Bruins return home to host the Oregon’s this week (the Beavers on Thursday, the Ducks on Saturday), teams they swept and covered a month ago.  Be careful when OSU invades, however, as UCLA is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 17 points against the Beavers and 2-6 ATS at home off a same season revenge win this decade.

No. 7 Stanford Cardinal – Weekend Result: Stanford 67, Arizona 66
What we wrote: We’ll see whether or not the Cardinal is NCAA Tournament tough this Saturday when they travel to Tucson to meet Arizona at the McKale Center.  On the heels of a 4-point overtime loss at Arizona State Thursday night, a game in which Stanford led by 14 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining, Stanford saw its seven-game win streak snapped against a team they had defeated in 18 of the previous 20 meetings.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats must overcome a recent jinx that has seen the home team drop the money five straight times in this series.  We will learn a lot about both teams after the sand settles in the desert Saturday afternoon.

WHAT WE LEARNED: The Cardinal showed what being the No. 2 rebounding team in the nation means when they edged Arizona, 67-66, at the McKale Center Saturday.  Lead by future NBA Twin Towers Brook and Robin Lopez (identical twins), Stanford outrebounded the Wildcats, 35-25, enroute to a hard-fought win that keeps them a half-game behind UCLA in the PAC 10 standings. 

UP NEXT: Stanford returns home for a three-game set, beginning this Sunday against California before the Washington’s invade in two weeks.  While The Tree stands tall at 13-4 SU & ATS this decade against the Bears, the fact remains that PAC 10 home favorites off a straight-up upset win over Arizona are just 2-13 ATS since 2000.  More on this game in our next report.

No. 8 Georgetown Hoyas – Weekend Result: Syracuse 77, Georgetown 70
What we wrote: A matchup of two teams both struggling at the moment - one apparent, the other not. While G-Town enters off its 20th win of the season, they are riding an 0-4 ATS losing skein into this contest.  Syracuse lost in surprising fashion at South Florida Wednesday night, their second straight defeat, as they now find themselves ‘on the bubble’ at 16-9 this season.  The intrigue n this game is that it pairs one team that shoots straight in Syracuse (No. 7 in the land in Offensive Field Goal Percentage) against another that defends the shot better than anyone else in Georgetown (No. 1 in Defensive Field Goal Percentage).  We’ll bank on the Orange’s 3-0 SU & ATS mark at home of late in games off a pair of losses to come out on top.

WHAT WE LEARNED:  The Hoyas appear to be hitting a wall (0-5 ATS in its last five games), not a good omen at this stage of the season for a team that had visions of a No. 1 seed in the March Madness tournament just ahead. They are most likely going to have to win out to once again entertain those visions.

UP NEXT: G-Town must rebound quickly when they visit Providence Monday night before returning home on 2/27 to host St. John’s.  The good news for the Hoyas is they are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games off a straight-up favorite loss.  The bad news - and there is always bad news for teams that are not hitting on all cylinders – is the fact that Georgetown is just 4-4 SU  & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games against the Friars.  Interestingly, they are also 9-1 SU but only 2-6 ATS this season in games against opponents that are off a loss.

No. 9 Michigan State Spartans – Weekend Result: Indiana 80, Michigan State 61
What we wrote: Uh oh.  It appears Indiana head coach Kelvin Sampson is back on the same hot seat that saw him melt away and lose his job at Oklahoma.  Not good news for the Hoosiers, especially at this critical juncture of the season.  Coaching violation investigation aside, both teams meet Saturday in Bloomington, each off a loss in their last game.  The question at hand is if Indiana can put the distractions aside for the moment while finding a way to put a halt to its 1-7 ATS run in games off a loss (0-3 this season), or whether the home team dominance in this series (9-1 ATS last ten games) will prevail?  Tough call.

WHAT WE LEARNED: More times often that not, it’s not a good situation for teams to take on opponents that have a rally cry.  The Spartans were certainly in the wrong place at the wrong time Saturday night when the Hoosiers 'won one for the gipper’ in a resounding victory.  It’s now time for MSU to stand up and be counted.  FYI:  they are 18-6 ATS at home in games off back-to-back defeats.

UP NEXT: Tom Izzo’s troops limp home to host Penn State (Wednesday) and Iowa (Saturday) this week, before taking on Wisconsin and Indiana in two weeks.  Ironically, they will be playing with revenge in ALL FOUR games. For openers, they are 18-3 SU & 16-6 ATS against the Nittany Lions.  Look out Big 10, the Spartans are coming.

No. 10 Butler Bulldogs – Weekend Result: Butler 51, Cleveland State 46
What we wrote: The newest member of the Top 10 teams in the land, Butler, finds itself at home with a cushy two-game lead in the Horizon Conference this Saturday when they battle upstart Cleveland State at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The firs time these two teams met at the Convocation Center in Cleveland the Vikings prevailed, 56-52.  With CSU a half-game back of Wright State for 2nd place in the conference standings, and the 2nd place finisher in the Horizon awarded a valuable ‘bye’ in the first round of the conference tourney (they host a 2nd round matchup, with the winner advancing to the finals thereafter), this game becomes doubly important for the Vikings.  The Bulldogs’ dismal 5-10-1 ATS mark in games with same season revenge when playing off a SU & ATS win finds us grabbing the points.

WHAT WE LEARNED:  following last Saturday’s revenge win over Cleveland State, the Bulldogs need one more win, with three games remaining, to wrap up honors in the Horizon League.  It’s called easy street for the Butler, a well-coached team with grit that figures to make some noise once the March Madness tournament begins. 

UP NEXT: Just one game on tap this week, Wednesday night at Illinois-Chicago.  Yes, the Bulldogs have fared well against the Flames of late (5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS last six games), but it’s best to careful here.  This is UIC’s Last Home Game where they’ve won 14 of their last 15 games while going 10-2-1 ATS.

Editor’s Note: Marc has been on fire on the hardwood, winning 7 of his last 9 guaranteed College releases, and 8 straight NBA guaranteed best bets on this site.  Catch his next COLLEGE WEEKEND PREVIEW this Friday.

Handicappers Notebook - Weekend Review

Handicappers Notebook - Weekend Review
By Marc Lawrence

Like American Idol, auditions for the start of the 2008 March Madness Tournament are taking place as the contestants in this year’s Dance Contest begin putting the final touches on their acts.  Let’s take a look at how the better teams performed this past weekend, and what sort of moves we can expect this week…

No. 1: Memphis Tigers
What we wrote: The Tigers host Central Florida with Memphis doing all they can to stay focused form now until the Big Dance begins.  UCF snapped a three-game losing skein with a 14-point win-and-cover Wednesday night against Marshall and dresses up as a dog in conference play for only the 2nd time this season (1-0 ATS).  Check the status of F Robert Dozier (10.4 PPG / 7.3 RPG) before making a play on this game. Dozier was suspended before the SMU game for disciplinary reasons. The ‘Awesome Angle of the Week’ from our basketball newsletter this week tells us that 19-0 or better double-digit favorites are just 7-18 ATS when facing a .500 or better conference foe. It’s UCF or bust at the FedEx Forum Saturday night.

What we learned: The Tigers are building a strong case to become the first team to finish the regular season unbeaten since the 1990-91 UNLV team. “We're raising the stakes as we go forward,” Calipari said.  The return of F Robert Dozier (one-game suspension for allegedly hitting his girlfriend) helped lead a balanced attack at Memphis next prepares for an invasion of Houston, the No.2 team in the CUSA.  With a 21-point win-and-push against UCF Saturday, the same Awesome Angle quoted above is now 7-18-1 ATS and applies against the Tigers, making the Cougars the play in Wednesday’s matchup of conference felines.

No. 2: Duke Blue Devils
What we wrote: As impressed as you may have been with the Devils convincing win at North Carolina Wednesday evening, keep this thought in mind when they host the slumping Eagles from Boston College.  More often that not, teams tend to celebrate win No. 20 on the season with a lethargic effort the following game.  Yes, we realize Duke is 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in ACC play this year, and also 8-1-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor Arena this season.  And that BC’s stock (0-5 SU & ATS last five games) is dropping faster than Patriot QB Tom Brady at the site of oncoming NYG defensive linemen, but the fact of the matter is the Blue Devils are just 4-7 ATS in games off a SU underdog win and 3-10-1 ATS in games after facing North Carolina. Forewarned is forearmed.

What we learned: An expected letdown took place when the Devils skated past the Eagles in ho-hum fashion with a 90-80 win as 20-point favorites.  BC lead at the half, and by two-points with 10 minutes remaining before Duke finally awoke from it’s slumber.  The Eagles shot 55% from the field while the Devils converted just 44& of their field goal attempts and just 61% of the time from the free throw stripe.  Coach K’s crew returns home Wednesday to host Maryland, a team that ‘s been a thorn in their side of late (3-5 SU & ATS vs Terps) before traveling to Wake Forest on Saturday.  For what it’s worth, Duke has dominated the Demons of late, going 20-3 SU & 18-5 ATS.

No. 3: North Carolina Tar Heels
What we wrote: If Tar Heel head coach Roy Williams could be granted one wish it would be for the return of starting PG Ty Lawson this Sunday when they host upstart Clemson in the Dean Dome.  His leadership, like his sprained ankle, have been sorely missed the pas two games.  Meanwhile, the Tigers invade off their first 30-point conference win since 1999.  It marked the 14th time n 32 games this season that Clemson was able to crack 80 points in a game.  That’s relevant considering the fact that UNC is 10-49 ATS as a favorite in games in which they allow a conference foe 80 or more points, including 1-15 ATS when favored by 11 or more points.  Be careful here.

What we learned: As good a team as the Tar Heels are, the fact of the matter is they, or any other high-profile team, are not going to cover games with a matador defense.  UNC takes on the Virginia’s this week – Tuesday at the Cavaliers in a series that ahs seen the visiting team go 3-9 ATS and Saturday at home against the Hokies, against whom they have double revenge from a pair losses suffered last year against the Techsters.  By the way, Carolina is 1-5 SU & ATS in its last six games against Virginia when they allowed 80-plus points.  In their losses last year against Virginia Tech they allowed 81 and 94 points.

No. 4: UCLA Bruins
What we wrote: Ben Howland’s Bruins will look to make it a clean sweep through Washington when they take on the Huskies at the Bank of America Arena in Seattle Sunday afternoon. As good as UCLA is playing, the feeling here is this could be a tough spot.  Washington’s third straight home loss on Thursday night against USC leveled their record at 10-10 on the season as they are swimming in dangerous water as far as their post-season chances are concerned.  Then again, out data base reminds us that teams in the 4th straight home game, playing off three SU & ATS home losses, are just 6-11 ATS.  To really confuse matters, UCLA is 4-9 ATS as road chalk off a road favorite win and cover, including 2-7 versus a .500 or better opponent.  Your serve.

What we learned: Winning and covering three conference road games in a row is a tough task.  As good as the Bruins are the demands of pulling off a hat trick of this magnitude are difficult.  They return home to host the Oregon’s this week, teams they won and covered against in earlier meetings this season. UCLA is 6-0 SU & ATS in their last six games against the Ducks, and 9-1 ATS in their last ten against the Beavers. FYI: the Bruins are now 83-60-4 ATS in all games under head coach Ben Howland.

No. 5: Kansas Jayhawks
What we wrote: The Jayhawks got back on the win track with a 19-point win over a fragile Missouri squad Monday night.  They’ll host Baylor Saturday night, trying their best to not look ahead to a huge showdown with Texas this Monday night. While peeking ahead to the Longhorns has proven costly in the past (5-9 ATS before Texas, including 2-8 ATS when off a double-digit win), we’re not fully convinced a look ahead is their only potential problem.  It seems Baylor has revenge from last year’s Big 12 tourney knockout loss.  Toss in the fact the Bears are 17-4 this season, with no loss by more than eight points and you can understand our not wishing to knee-jerk with Kansas this weekend.

What we learned: When they need to, the Jayhawks can turn it on.  Despite a lethargic effort in the first half against the battling Bears, Kansas connected for 63% from the floor after the intermission to turn a halftime deficit into a 10-point win.  And they did so despite failing to land a 3-point shot (0-for-9) for the first time in 270 games. Up next is a rematch from last year’s Big 12 title game in which Kansas edged Texas, 88-84.  Good news for the Jayhawks is they are 5-0 ATS in the series against the Longhorns when Kansas owns a win percentage of .890 or better.  Bad news is Texas is 5-0 ATS when revenge against the Jayhawks.  They return home Saturday to host Colorado, a team they’ve devoured in the past, going 37-1 SU & 26-12 ATS.

No. 6: Georgetown Hoyas
What we wrote: G-Town travels to Louisville in the feature game inside the Big East Conference Saturday night.  It’s our contention the Hoyas are a legitimate No. 1 Seed come NCAA Tournament time. They lead the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (35.5%) and rank No. 5 in Offensive Field Goal Percentage (49.8%).  That’s a tough combination to overcome for most teams.  Most team, that is, unless you happen to rank No. 5 in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.4%), as do the Cardinals.  With Louisville (7-3) sitting tow spots back of Georgetown (9-1) in the Conference, this game promises to be a defensive duel to the death.

What we learned: The Big East race is suddenly wide open, and Georgetown’s going to need to win it both the regular and post-season titles if it wishes to garner a coveted No.1 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament. The Hoyas blew an 8-point halftime lead, going scoreless during an 8-minute stretch after the intermission, allowing Louisville back into contention in the Big East Conference.  A 4-for-22 performance from the arc. Meanwhile, Georgetown returns home Monday to host Villanova, a team the knocked out of the Big 12 tournament last year.  The Wildcats are 8-4 SU & ATS in the last twelve meetings in the series, including 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS as dogs during the regular season.  They conclude the week at Syracuse on Saturday, another team that has given them fits of late (2-7 SU & ATS last nine games).  We’ll learn a lot about the Hoyas this week.

No. 7: Tennessee Volunteers
What we wrote: LSU plays host to the Vols this Saturday, a team that continues to salt away all comers despite soft defensive numbers.  How do they do it, you ask?  It seems they are an extremely unselfish squad, one that leads the nation is Assists Per Game (19.8).  Tennessee is a lot the 2nd best tem in the land in Steals Per Game (10.6).  It’s numbers like those that overcome their defensive deficiencies.  While we would normally look to fade the Vols on the road off their 20th win of the season, we won’t do it here.  Not with the Knoxville Cats looking to avenge a tournament loss suffered against the Bengals in last year’s SEC tourney. 

What we learned: Vols escaped from a tough environment Saturday when LSU took the court after their head coach, John Brady, was given the pink slip.  The result was a hard-fought 47-45 win as Tennessee remained a game-and-half ahead of Kentucky in the SEC East Division race. The truth of the matter is the Vols won a game they should not have, shooting just 32% from the field and 27% (4-for-15) from the free throw line.  For what it’s worth, though, teams that win as a double-digit favorite and score less than 50 points in the victory are 9-5-1 ATS if their next game is against a conference foe, including 3-0 SU & ATS as a single-digit favorite.  Let’s see how they perform when they host red-hot Arkansas this Wednesday.

No. 8: Wisconsin Badgers
What we wrote: Don’t blame the Badgers for their dull performance at Iowa earlier this week.  The Hawkeyes are playing much better ball these days, and Wisconsin was likely looking forward this Saturday night showdown in Madison against Purdue.  Along with Indiana, the Badgers and Boilermakers are tied atop the Conference at 9-1, making this game pivotal for the winner.  Have to like Wisky’s 104-6 SU mark in home games under head coach Bo Ryan. Can’t like the fact that Purdue has covered the spread just ONCE in its last 21 losses against avenging teams.

What we learned: The Badgers were burrowed on their revered home court Saturday night, resulting in a stunning 5-point loss to suddenly surging Purdue.  As a result Wisconsin trails the Boilermakers by a half a game in the Big 10 standings.  A quick look at the stat sheet had to have Bo Ryan pulling out his hair as the Badgers canned 30-of-33 shots from the free throw stripe while outrebounding Purdue, 42-21.  They take on a pair of teams they’ve defeated this season, at Indiana on Wednesday, and home versus Minnesota on Saturday.  Wisky is just 5-10-1 ATS in their last sixteen games against a conference opponent playing with same season revenge.  It’s test time for Bo’s boys this week.

No. 9: Stanford Cardinal
What we wrote: Have to be impressed with the Cardinal’s 29-point win Thursday night against Oregon.  It was the Ducks worst conference defeat in three years.  Stanford will look to complete the Oregon pass when they host Pac 10 patsy Oregon State while in quest of the 20th victory of the campaign.  All one needs to do is take a peek at the team Rebound Margin numbers to understand why these two teams are where they are at this stage of the season.  Stanford ranks No. 2 in the nation in this critical category (+11.4 Net RPG), as opposed to Oregon State’s No. 146 standing (+0.7 Net RPG).  Despite the Cardinal’s 20-2 SU & 16-6 ATS mark in this series, not interested in laying this sort of lumber with Sanford off the Oregon rout.

What we learned: The Cardinal performed as expected in a 71-56 win-no-cover performance at home against Oregon State Saturday to pick up their 20th win of the season.  Coupled with UCLA’s upset loss at Washington, Stanford now finds itself tied with the Bruins atop the Pac 10 standings.  They’ll invade the desert in Arizona this week to take on the Sun Devils and Wildcats, a pair of clubs they defeated in Stanford earlier this season.  A season sweep will likely prove will likely prove difficult, despite the Cardinal’s dominance over Arizona State (22-3 SU & 17-7-1 ATS).  The aforementioned win over Arizona earlier this year snapped a six-game series losing skid by Stanford.

No. 10: Michigan State Spartans
What we wrote: Chomping at the bit, Saturday’s home game against Northwestern will be the first game back for Sparty following last Saturday’s stunning loss at Penn State as double-digit road chalk.   Statistically speaking, this game is a mismatch of major proportions with Michigan State the nation’s No. 6 ranked squad in Rebound Margin (+8.7 net RPG) against the Wildcats’ No. 341 (dead last) ranked unit (-13.2 net RPG).  The history book tells us MSU owns Northwestern in this series, going 28-2 SU & 20-10 ATS in the last thirty meetings.  Also note Tom Izzo’s 10-5-1 ATS record in games off a SU favorite loss.  Can only look one way here today. 

What we learned: Beating Northwestern by a margin is like running a marathon uphill.  It doesn’t happen all that often.  Not since head coach Bill Carmody took over the program eight years ago.  In the 234 games they’ve played under Carmody’s command, the Wildcats have lost just twenty of them by 20 or more points. "Like Coach (Izzo) said, a 15-point win against Northwestern is like a 25-point win against any other team. The style they play, the way they slow the game down and run the shot clock, I think we're feeling pretty good about the game,” MSU C Drew Neitzel said after the game. The Spartans travel to Purdue Tuesday night knowing they are 6-0 ATS in this series when the Boilermakers are off an underdog win. They conclude the week at Indiana on Saturday, in a series that has seen the home team go 9-1 ATS the last ten meetings.

Handicappers’ Notebook

Weekend College Hoops Preview
By Marc Lawrence

With the race to San Antonio now in full gear, and the jockeying for the four coveted No.1 Seeds still up for grabs, let’s check in on who, and where, the best teams in the nation will be playing this weekend. After all, this year’s NCAA Tournament will be here before you know it and it’s good to know the condition of the teams upon their arrival to the Alamo… 

No. 1: Memphis Tigers

The Tigers host Central Florida with Memphis doing all they can to stay focused form now until the Big Dance begins.  UCF snapped a three-game losing skein with a 14-point win-and-cover Wednesday night against Marshall and dresses up as a dog in conference play for only the 2nd time this season (1-0 ATS).  Check the status of F Robert Dozier (10.4 PPG / 7.3 RPG) before making a play on this game. Dozier was suspended before the SMU game for disciplinary reasons. The ‘Awesome Angle of the Week’ from our basketball newsletter this week tells us that 19-0 or better double-digit favorites are just 7-18 ATS when facing a .500 or better conference foe. It’s UCF or bust at the FedEx Forum Saturday night.

No. 2: Duke Blue Devils

As impressed as you may have been with the Devils convincing win at North Carolina Wednesday evening, keep this thought in mind when they host the slumping Eagles from Boston College.  More often that not, teams tend to celebrate win No. 20 on the season with a lethargic effort the following game.  Yes, we realize Duke is 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in ACC play this year, and also 8-1-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor Arena this season.  And that BC’s stock (0-5 SU & ATS last five games) is dropping faster than Patriot QB Tom Brady at the site of oncoming NYG defensive linemen, but the fact of the matter is the Blue Devils are just 4-7 ATS in games off a SU underdog win and 3-10-1 ATS in games after facing North Carolina. Forewarned is forearmed.

No. 3: North Carolina Tar Heels

If Tar Heel head coach Roy Williams could be granted one wish it would be for the return of starting PG Ty Lawson this Sunday when they host upstart Clemson in the Dean Dome.  His leadership, like his sprained ankle, have been sorely missed the pas two games.  Meanwhile, the Tigers invade off their first 30-point conference win since 1999.  It marked the 14th time n 32 games this season that Clemson was able to crack 80 points in a game.  That’s relevant considering the fact that UNC is 10-49 ATS as a favorite in games in which they allow a conference foe 80 or more points, including 1-15 ATS when favored by 11 or more points.  Be careful here.

No. 4: UCLA Bruins

Ben Howland’s Bruins will look to make it a clean sweep through Washington when they take on the Huskies at the Bank of America Arena in Seattle Sunday afternoon. As good as UCLA is playing, the feeling here is this could be a tough spot.  Washington’s third straight home loss on Thursday night against USC leveled their record at 10-10 on the season as they are swimming in dangerous water as far as their post-season chances are concerned.  Then again, out data base reminds us that teams in the 4th straight home game, playing off three SU & ATS home losses, are just 6-11 ATS.  To really confuse matters, UCLA is 4-9 ATS as road chalk off a road favorite win and cover, including 2-7 versus a .500 or better opponent.  Your serve.

No. 5: Kansas Jayhawks

The Jayhawks got back on the win track with a 19-point win over a fragile Missouri squad Monday night.  They’ll host Baylor Saturday night, trying their best to not look ahead to a huge showdown with Texas this Monday night. While peeking ahead to the Longhorns has proven costly in the past (5-9 ATS before Texas, including 2-8 ATS when off a double-digit win), we’re not fully convinced a look ahead is their only potential problem.  It seems Baylor has revenge from last year’s Big 12 tourney knockout loss.  Toss in the fact the Bears are 17-4 this season, with no loss by more than eight points and you can understand our not wishing to knee-jerk with Kansas this weekend.

No. 6: Georgetown Hoyas

G-Town travels to Louisville in the feature game inside the Big East Conference Saturday night.  It’s our contention the Hoyas are a legitimate No. 1 Seed come NCAA Tournament time. They lead the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (35.5%) and rank No. 5 in Offensive Field Goal Percentage (49.8%).  That’s a tough combination to overcome for most teams.  Most team, that is, unless you happen to rank No. 5 in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.4%), as do the Cardinals.  With Louisville (7-3) sitting tow spots back of Georgetown (9-1) in the Conference, this game promises to be a defensive duel to the death.

No. 7: Tennessee Volunteers

LSU plays host to the Vols this Saturday, a team that continues to salt away all comers despite soft defensive numbers.  How do they do it, you ask?  It seems they are an extremely unselfish squad, one that leads the nation is Assists Per Game (19.8).  Tennessee is a lot the 2nd best tem in the land in Steals Per Game (10.6).  It’s numbers like those that overcome their defensive deficiencies.  While we would normally look to fade the Vols on the road off their 20th win of the season, we won’t do it here.  Not with the Knoxville Cats looking to avenge a tournament loss suffered against the Bengals in last year’s SEC tourney. 

No. 8: Wisconsin Badgers

Don’t blame the Badgers for their dull performance at Iowa earlier this week.  The Hawkeyes are playing much better ball these days, and Wisconsin was likely looking forward this Saturday night showdown in Madison against Purdue.  Along with Indiana, the Badgers and Boilermakers are tied atop the Conference at 9-1, making this game pivotal for the winner.  Have to like Wisky’s 104-6 SU mark in home games under head coach Bo Ryan. Can’t like the fact that Purdue has covered the spread just ONCE in its last 21 losses against avenging teams.

No. 9:  Stanford Cardinal

Have to be impressed with the Cardinal’s 29-point win Thursday night against Oregon.  It was the Ducks worst conference defeat in three years.  Stanford will look to complete the Oregon pass when they host Pac 10 patsy Oregon State while in quest of the 20th victory of the campaign.  All one needs to do is take a peek at the team Rebound Margin numbers to understand why these two teams are where they are at this stage of the season.  Stanford ranks No. 2 in the nation in this critical category (+11.4 Net RPG), as opposed to Oregon State’s No. 146 standing (+0.7 Net RPG).  Despite the Cardinal’s 20-2 SU & 16-6 ATS mark in this series, not interested in laying this sort of lumber with Sanford off the Oregon rout.

No. 10: Michigan State Spartans

Chomping at the bit, Saturday’s home game against Northwestern will be the first game back for Sparty following last Saturday’s stunning loss at Penn State as double-digit road chalk.   Statistically speaking, this game is a mismatch of major proportions with Michigan State the nation’s No. 6 ranked squad in Rebound Margin (+8.7 net RPG) against the Wildcats’ No. 341 (dead last) ranked unit (-13.2 net RPG).  The history book tells us MSU owns Northwestern in this series, going 28-2 SU & 20-10 ATS in the last thirty meetings.  Also note Tome Izzo’s 10-5-1 ATS record in games off a SU favorite loss.  Can only look one way here today. 

Handicappers’ Notebook

A Weekend Preview of the Top Ranked Teams in Action…

Join me once for a sneak preview of the big games on tap this weekend on the College Hoops card. How do teams do after seeing their perfect season go up in flames?  Which teams, other than undefeated Memphis, are No.1 seed caliber for the upcoming Big dance?  Let’s take a look…

No.1 – Memphis - home vs UTEP
Once again the Tigers lived up to their billing, beating back the 2nd best team in the CUSA with a convincing 12-point road win at Houston Wednesday evening.  They are now 8-0 ATS this year against foes off a double-digit win, 7-0 ATS against an opponent of back-to-back wins and 5-0-1 ATS in conference play.  The Miners might feel good about its 13-6 record this year but a closer look shows they are 13-0 against sub .575 opposition and 0-6 versus competition with a win percentage greater than .575.  The only question here is whether John Calipari’s thoroughbreds will need blinkers in order to stay fully focused.

No. 2 – Kansas - away vs Colorado
Dreams of a perfect season are over in Lawrence.  The focus now for the Jayhawks will be to secure a No.1 seed in the Big Dance.  To do so they’ll likely need to win the Big 12 tourney while not stumbling too badly along the way.  They take on the perfect patsy in the bounce-back game Saturday in Colorado, a team they defeated 36 of the last 37 meetings, while going 26-11 ATS in those games.  Oh yeah, Kansas has responded rather well in games after tasting defeat for the first time in the season as evidenced by a 13-2 SU & 7-3 ATS mark, including a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS in conference play.

No. 3 – Duke - home vs Miami Fla
The 18-1 Blue Devils solidified its No. 3 ranking with a 20-point walkover win against NC State Wednesday while the 15-5 Hurricanes are looking to put the wind back in their sails after starting the season with 12 straight wins.  If you like double-digit dogs in dandy situations then Miami might be your best friend this weekend.  They are 17-6 ATS taking doubles as a conference road dog and 7-1 ATS against an opponent off a win this season.  On the flip side Duke has a big showdown up next with Tobacco Road rival North Carolina.  While they are 5-0 ATS in ACC play this year, the Devils are just 3-15 ATS in games before taking on the tar Heels.  Yech.

No. 4 – North Carolina – away vs Florida State
Like the Blue Devils above, UNC enters off a 20-plus point win with the next stop against you-know-who next week.  For what it’s worth, the Tar Heels are just 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS in games prior to Duke.  Yes, they’ve dominated the Seminoles in this series, winning 26 of the last 31 meetings but inside those numbers is a sticky 2-8 ATS log when FSU is off back-to-back defeats.  While the Sems are riding a 0-7 ATS losing skein they are, surprisingly, 3-0 SU & ATS this season against .950 or better opponents.  This could be another bad spot for Roy’s boys.

No. 5 – UCLA - home vs Arizona
Winners of 12 of their last 13 games, the Bruins are flashing signs of a No.1 seed in the NCAA tourney.  Like Kansas, they too will likely need to capture its conference tourney. But before they practice their dance moves they’ll need to take of business at hand today.  Granted, they defeated the Wildcats five games in row but in the Wildcats they are facing a ferocious dog, one that is 50-18 ATS when taking points when its win percentage is less than .720. (Zona is 36-32 SU in those games).  There’s no question Arizona is taking to substitute coach Kevin O’Neill’s schemes.  They enter this fracas on a six-game ATS win streak.

No. 6  - Georgetown – home vs Seton Hall
If the NCAA tourney were to start this weekend the Hoyas would surely be a No.1 seed.  They owe it all to a stifling defense, one that ranks best in the nation in the most important of all categories – Defensive Field Goal percentage (35.2%).  Georgetown returns home off a pair of road wins and covers to take on a suddenly hot Seton Hall squad that has won each of its last five games.  With the Hoyas fat-and-sassy it’s worth noting they are 1-5 ATS in games off a SU & ATS win this season and 0-3 ATS when laying double digits in this series.

No. 7 – Michigan State – away vs Penn State
Don’t look now but Tom Izzo’s Spartans are taking form.  In their last six game MSU has allowed an average less than 57 PPG and look to be the team to beat in the Big 10 race.  Michigan State has dominated Penn State in this series, going 19-2 SU & 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Meanwhile, after starting 2-0 in conference play this season, the Nittany Lions have lost their roar as they enter on a six-game losing skein.  Can’t like their putrid 5-32 ATS mark in games in which they fail to score 60 points.

No. 8 – Tennessee – away vs Mississippi State
It’s the feeling here that the Vols will likely be one of the first higher seeded teams to bow out of the Big Dance.  The bottom line is they play little to no defense.  That’s confirmed by their No. 173 ranking in Defensive Field Goal percentage.  They also refuse to crash the boards with any intensity as they rank No. 171 in the nation in Rebound Margin. The fact of the matter is those numbers pale in comparison to Mississippi State’s rankings - No.2 in Defensive Field Goad percentage and No.12 in Rebound Margin.  No surprise should MSU bounce back off Wednesday’s disappointing effort at Arkansas.

No. 9 – Washington State – at West Virginia
After a 15-0 start to the season, the Cougars appear to have hit a wall. They host 17-3 Stanford in a big battle in the PAC 10 at 18-3 on the year, but just 3-3 in their last six games.  Can they bounce back from Thursday’s home loss as double-digit favs against California?  They’ve responded with aplomb in games off an upset loss under Tony Bennett, going 3-0 SU & ATS.  The problem here, however, is the Cardinal has dominated WSU in this series, winning 21 of the last 24 meetings.

No. 10 –Texas - home vs Baylor
The knee-jerk would be to back Texas at home of Wednesday night’s trouncing at A&M.  The problem, though, is this is the game Baylor has had circled ever since they were taken out three times last year by the Longhorns, including a season ending loss in the Big 12 tourney.  With five starters back for the Bears you know this game is Priority One on their wish list this season.  Combine that with Texas’