Handicappers’ Notebook

A Weekend Preview of the Top Ranked Teams in Action…

Join me once for a sneak preview of the big games on tap this weekend on the College Hoops card. How do teams do after seeing their perfect season go up in flames?  Which teams, other than undefeated Memphis, are No.1 seed caliber for the upcoming Big dance?  Let’s take a look…

No.1 – Memphis - home vs UTEP
Once again the Tigers lived up to their billing, beating back the 2nd best team in the CUSA with a convincing 12-point road win at Houston Wednesday evening.  They are now 8-0 ATS this year against foes off a double-digit win, 7-0 ATS against an opponent of back-to-back wins and 5-0-1 ATS in conference play.  The Miners might feel good about its 13-6 record this year but a closer look shows they are 13-0 against sub .575 opposition and 0-6 versus competition with a win percentage greater than .575.  The only question here is whether John Calipari’s thoroughbreds will need blinkers in order to stay fully focused.

No. 2 – Kansas - away vs Colorado
Dreams of a perfect season are over in Lawrence.  The focus now for the Jayhawks will be to secure a No.1 seed in the Big Dance.  To do so they’ll likely need to win the Big 12 tourney while not stumbling too badly along the way.  They take on the perfect patsy in the bounce-back game Saturday in Colorado, a team they defeated 36 of the last 37 meetings, while going 26-11 ATS in those games.  Oh yeah, Kansas has responded rather well in games after tasting defeat for the first time in the season as evidenced by a 13-2 SU & 7-3 ATS mark, including a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS in conference play.

No. 3 – Duke - home vs Miami Fla
The 18-1 Blue Devils solidified its No. 3 ranking with a 20-point walkover win against NC State Wednesday while the 15-5 Hurricanes are looking to put the wind back in their sails after starting the season with 12 straight wins.  If you like double-digit dogs in dandy situations then Miami might be your best friend this weekend.  They are 17-6 ATS taking doubles as a conference road dog and 7-1 ATS against an opponent off a win this season.  On the flip side Duke has a big showdown up next with Tobacco Road rival North Carolina.  While they are 5-0 ATS in ACC play this year, the Devils are just 3-15 ATS in games before taking on the tar Heels.  Yech.

No. 4 – North Carolina – away vs Florida State
Like the Blue Devils above, UNC enters off a 20-plus point win with the next stop against you-know-who next week.  For what it’s worth, the Tar Heels are just 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS in games prior to Duke.  Yes, they’ve dominated the Seminoles in this series, winning 26 of the last 31 meetings but inside those numbers is a sticky 2-8 ATS log when FSU is off back-to-back defeats.  While the Sems are riding a 0-7 ATS losing skein they are, surprisingly, 3-0 SU & ATS this season against .950 or better opponents.  This could be another bad spot for Roy’s boys.

No. 5 – UCLA - home vs Arizona
Winners of 12 of their last 13 games, the Bruins are flashing signs of a No.1 seed in the NCAA tourney.  Like Kansas, they too will likely need to capture its conference tourney. But before they practice their dance moves they’ll need to take of business at hand today.  Granted, they defeated the Wildcats five games in row but in the Wildcats they are facing a ferocious dog, one that is 50-18 ATS when taking points when its win percentage is less than .720. (Zona is 36-32 SU in those games).  There’s no question Arizona is taking to substitute coach Kevin O’Neill’s schemes.  They enter this fracas on a six-game ATS win streak.

No. 6  - Georgetown – home vs Seton Hall
If the NCAA tourney were to start this weekend the Hoyas would surely be a No.1 seed.  They owe it all to a stifling defense, one that ranks best in the nation in the most important of all categories – Defensive Field Goal percentage (35.2%).  Georgetown returns home off a pair of road wins and covers to take on a suddenly hot Seton Hall squad that has won each of its last five games.  With the Hoyas fat-and-sassy it’s worth noting they are 1-5 ATS in games off a SU & ATS win this season and 0-3 ATS when laying double digits in this series.

No. 7 – Michigan State – away vs Penn State
Don’t look now but Tom Izzo’s Spartans are taking form.  In their last six game MSU has allowed an average less than 57 PPG and look to be the team to beat in the Big 10 race.  Michigan State has dominated Penn State in this series, going 19-2 SU & 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Meanwhile, after starting 2-0 in conference play this season, the Nittany Lions have lost their roar as they enter on a six-game losing skein.  Can’t like their putrid 5-32 ATS mark in games in which they fail to score 60 points.

No. 8 – Tennessee – away vs Mississippi State
It’s the feeling here that the Vols will likely be one of the first higher seeded teams to bow out of the Big Dance.  The bottom line is they play little to no defense.  That’s confirmed by their No. 173 ranking in Defensive Field Goal percentage.  They also refuse to crash the boards with any intensity as they rank No. 171 in the nation in Rebound Margin. The fact of the matter is those numbers pale in comparison to Mississippi State’s rankings - No.2 in Defensive Field Goad percentage and No.12 in Rebound Margin.  No surprise should MSU bounce back off Wednesday’s disappointing effort at Arkansas.

No. 9 – Washington State – at West Virginia
After a 15-0 start to the season, the Cougars appear to have hit a wall. They host 17-3 Stanford in a big battle in the PAC 10 at 18-3 on the year, but just 3-3 in their last six games.  Can they bounce back from Thursday’s home loss as double-digit favs against California?  They’ve responded with aplomb in games off an upset loss under Tony Bennett, going 3-0 SU & ATS.  The problem here, however, is the Cardinal has dominated WSU in this series, winning 21 of the last 24 meetings.

No. 10 –Texas - home vs Baylor
The knee-jerk would be to back Texas at home of Wednesday night’s trouncing at A&M.  The problem, though, is this is the game Baylor has had circled ever since they were taken out three times last year by the Longhorns, including a season ending loss in the Big 12 tourney.  With five starters back for the Bears you know this game is Priority One on their wish list this season.  Combine that with Texas’