Handicappers’ Notebook - A Weekend Review of the Top 10 Teams…

Handicappers’ Notebook
A Weekend Review of the Top 10 Teams…
By Marc Lawrence

With two of the nation’s Top 10 contingent suffering losses last weekend, it’s time to turn our attention to the games ahead. In addition, let’s find out what we learned from last week’s results, and what is on tap for games this week…

No. 1 Memphis Tigers - Weekend Result: Memphis 79, UAB 78
What we wrote: Biding their time from now until next week’s big showdown with Tennessee, the Tigers are taking on a look similar to the New England Patriots of the NFL.  After ripping off nine consecutive wins and covers, Memphis is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games.  Are they beginning to leak oil, ala the Pats, or are they simply bored with life in the mediocre CUSA?  What we do know is they will be on the road at UAB this Saturday and at Tulane and next Wednesday, prior to the ‘game of the year’ with the Vols next weekend.  While Memphis has dominated the Blazers of late (12-4 SU & ATS), the feeling here they are in need of a quick oil change.

WHAT WE LEARNED: You can chisel this in cement: if the Tigers plan on entering, and winning, this year’s NCAA Tournament to are going to need to begin making free throws with greater accuracy.  Maybe it’s being tight playing under the pressure at this stage of the season, but rest assured the next 12-for-22 performance from the stripe will be their last as an undefeated team.  Rallying from a 77-70 deficit with 1:30 remaining, Memphis escaped a major catastrophe when they outscored UAB 9-1 down the stretch.  Robert Varden and Chris Douglas-Roberts combined for all but 20 of their points.

UP NEXT: It’s on to Tulane this Wednesday before Saturday’s monster showdown with Tennessee.  Good thing the Tigers own the Green Wave (20-3 SU & 17-5-1 ATS), otherwise they’d possibly be a one-loss squad entering the weekend. 

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils – Weekend Result: Wake Forest 86, Duke 73
What we wrote: As impressive as the Devils have been of late, potential bad news looms on the horizon for Coach K’s crew.  With visits scheduled at Wake Forest on Saturday, and at Miami on Wednesday, Duke will need to avoid a plague that has enveloped this team this entire decade.  Namely, they seem to hit a wall during the regular season after Game 20.  That’s confirmed by their 32-41 ATS mark since 2000, including 27-41 ATS when not playing off a double-digit loss from Game 21 out.  Worse, they are 9-24 ATS in the road at this stage of the season off a win or loss of less than ten points.  They’ve owned both foes of late, going 20-3 SU & 18-5 ATS against the Demons (although just 6-4 ATS at Winston-Salem) and 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS against the Canes.  Let’s see if the ‘blackjack curse’ continues.

WHAT WE LEARNED: It’s strange what one basket in another game can mean to other teams in the college basketball world.  Had Memphis not scored with 10 seconds remaining at UAB Saturday night, Duke would have been in the catbird’s seat to become the No. 1 team in the land with a win at Wake Forest on Sunday.  The Tigers converted and as a result the Blue Devils came up flat. Don’t’ expect this team to say down too long, however, as they are 10-2 SU & ATS in their last twelve conference games when playing off a double-digit loss.

UP NEXT: A visit to South Beach to take on Miami this Wednesday before returning home to host Big East invader St. John’s on Saturday. The Hurricanes look to be the perfect fodder as Duke is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in this series since Miami entered the ACC in 2005.   

No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks - Weekend Result: Kansas 69, Colorado 45
What we wrote: Only one game is on tap for the Jayhawks this week as they return home off Monday’s disappointing loss at Texas to host Colorado this Saturday.  And according to our database you do not want to be wearing a Buffaloes’ jersey this weekend.  Not only does Kansas own Colorado in this series (37-1 SU & 27-12 ATS), KU coach Bill Self has been like money in the bank in games off a loss in his college head coaching career, going 69-19 SU & 45-27-2 ATS during his tenure with Tulsa, Illinois and Kansas.  Inside those numbers is a super-tough 30-3 SU & 24-8-1 ATS log when playing at home off a defeat.  The perfect patsy meets the brazened bully.

WHAT WE LEARNED: Once a dominator, always a dominator. Or so it seems when it comes to Jayhawk basketball and Big 12 patsies.  The fact of the matter, though, is – 24-point win aside - they have not covered a number in any of their last seven games (0-6-1 ATS) and now take off to the road at sites against a pair of foes that have given them fits of late. 

UP NEXT: First stop will be this Saturday at Oklahoma State where the Cowboys are 6-5 SU & 6-3-2 against Kansas.  From there it’s on to Iowa State, where KU is 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS in Ames the last nine visits. They can stamp themselves as the team to beat the Big 12 Conference (read: No.1 seed) should they return unscathed.

No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers - Weekend Result: Tennessee 74, Georgia 71
What we wrote: Despite defensive deficiencies the Vols continue their winning ways.  Wednesday’s win-and-cover over Arkansas increased UT’s record against winning opposition to 13-1 SU & 9-5 ATS this season.  Inside those numbers they sand a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS as a visitor against the same.  This Saturday they travel to Georgia to take on the 12-10 Bulldogs, a team they defeated, 85-69, earlier this year in Knoxville.  Even though Tennessee is 17-4 ATS in this series, including 9-0 ATS when playing off back-to-back victories, we’re not crazy about laying significant points on a court that has seen the Dawgs win 24 of its last 29 games.

WHAT WE LEARNED: It’s tough, very tough, laying more than a handful of points on strong foreign courts.  Despite not scoring in the final 3:50 of the game, the Vols hung on for a three-point win at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens Saturday, where Georgia is 24-6 in its last thirty contests. 

UP NEXT: Tennessee hosts Auburn Wednesday evening before Saturday’s heavyweight brawl with Memphis.  One might say the Vols have held the cards at home against the Tigers (7-2 ATS last nine games).  We say it’s a card game we’re not interested in, especially considering Auburn’s 8-2 ATS log a s a dog of more than 15 points against opponents off back-to-back wins. Pass on this deal.

No. 5 North Carolina Tar Heels - Weekend Result: North Carolina 92, Virginia Tech 54
What we wrote: After a scintillating start to the season (15-0 SU & 12-1 ATS), the Tar Heels have leveled off since entering conference play (9-2 SU & 5-5 ATS).  The will take the court at the Dean Smith Dome with double incentive from a pair of losses suffered last year against Virginia Tech.  Hopefully head coach Roy Williams will be able to parlay that motive along with his masterful career record at home against opponents off a loss (102-4 SU & 52-33 ATS).  FYI: when Williams is at home with revenge against a foe off a loss he is 9-3 to the number.  And this from our trusty database – the Hokies are 0-8 ATS in straight-up losses against an opponent playing with double-revenge from the previous season. No Gobbler for us this weekend.

WHAT WE LEARNED: When focused, Carolina is a very dangerous team. Or, better worded, when the Tar Heels play defense they become a feared opponent for any team.  On Saturday they improved to 19-0 SU & 15-2 ATS in games this season in which they hold an opponent under the 80-point scoring barrier.  Conversely, they are 6-2 SU & 3-4 ATS when they’ve surrendered 80 or more.  Then again, it’s more likely a personality trait of head coach Roy Williams.  Since 1990 at Kansas, and currently with Carolina, his teams are 439-60 SU & 261-166-7 ATS when allowing less than 80 points and just 63-56 SU & 32-80-1 ATS when coughing up 80-plus points.

UP NEXT: A dangerous visit looms at rival NC State this Wednesday before return home Sunday to host Wake Forest.  If going into revenge from a 93-62 waxing earlier this season isn’t difficult enough, the Heels must contend with the Wolfpack’s 8-5 ATS mark as a series host, including 4-0 when State is off a loss of more than three points.

No. 6 UCLA Bruins – Weekend Result: UCLA 56, USC 46
What we wrote: The Bruins travel cross town Sunday to take on city rival USC in a rematch from earlier this season in a game that saw the Trojans shock UCLA, 72-63, as double-digit dogs.  The good news for the Bruins is they are 6-1 ATS away from home this year, the only loss a 71-61 defeat at Washington last Saturday.  Better news is their sterling record on the road (31-16-1 ATS) and in games with conference revenge (18-7 ATS) under head coach Ben Howland.  Don’t like the fact, though, they are just 13-31-1 ATS laying points under Howland in games in which they fail to score 70 points. Given USC’s defensive pedigree, and their propensity for covering games under head coach Tim Floyd (49-29-2 ATS, including 25-11-1 ATS as a dog), we’ll play contrarians and look the Trojans way once again.

WHAT WE LEARNED:  When push comes to shove, the Bruins are an excellent defensive bunch.  The same defensive prowess is what will likely label them as Final Four contenders once the Big Dance tips.  It also makes them a risky proposition laying big lumber in non-important games.

UP NEXT: Bruins return home to host the Oregon’s this week (the Beavers on Thursday, the Ducks on Saturday), teams they swept and covered a month ago.  Be careful when OSU invades, however, as UCLA is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 17 points against the Beavers and 2-6 ATS at home off a same season revenge win this decade.

No. 7 Stanford Cardinal – Weekend Result: Stanford 67, Arizona 66
What we wrote: We’ll see whether or not the Cardinal is NCAA Tournament tough this Saturday when they travel to Tucson to meet Arizona at the McKale Center.  On the heels of a 4-point overtime loss at Arizona State Thursday night, a game in which Stanford led by 14 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining, Stanford saw its seven-game win streak snapped against a team they had defeated in 18 of the previous 20 meetings.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats must overcome a recent jinx that has seen the home team drop the money five straight times in this series.  We will learn a lot about both teams after the sand settles in the desert Saturday afternoon.

WHAT WE LEARNED: The Cardinal showed what being the No. 2 rebounding team in the nation means when they edged Arizona, 67-66, at the McKale Center Saturday.  Lead by future NBA Twin Towers Brook and Robin Lopez (identical twins), Stanford outrebounded the Wildcats, 35-25, enroute to a hard-fought win that keeps them a half-game behind UCLA in the PAC 10 standings. 

UP NEXT: Stanford returns home for a three-game set, beginning this Sunday against California before the Washington’s invade in two weeks.  While The Tree stands tall at 13-4 SU & ATS this decade against the Bears, the fact remains that PAC 10 home favorites off a straight-up upset win over Arizona are just 2-13 ATS since 2000.  More on this game in our next report.

No. 8 Georgetown Hoyas – Weekend Result: Syracuse 77, Georgetown 70
What we wrote: A matchup of two teams both struggling at the moment - one apparent, the other not. While G-Town enters off its 20th win of the season, they are riding an 0-4 ATS losing skein into this contest.  Syracuse lost in surprising fashion at South Florida Wednesday night, their second straight defeat, as they now find themselves ‘on the bubble’ at 16-9 this season.  The intrigue n this game is that it pairs one team that shoots straight in Syracuse (No. 7 in the land in Offensive Field Goal Percentage) against another that defends the shot better than anyone else in Georgetown (No. 1 in Defensive Field Goal Percentage).  We’ll bank on the Orange’s 3-0 SU & ATS mark at home of late in games off a pair of losses to come out on top.

WHAT WE LEARNED:  The Hoyas appear to be hitting a wall (0-5 ATS in its last five games), not a good omen at this stage of the season for a team that had visions of a No. 1 seed in the March Madness tournament just ahead. They are most likely going to have to win out to once again entertain those visions.

UP NEXT: G-Town must rebound quickly when they visit Providence Monday night before returning home on 2/27 to host St. John’s.  The good news for the Hoyas is they are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games off a straight-up favorite loss.  The bad news - and there is always bad news for teams that are not hitting on all cylinders – is the fact that Georgetown is just 4-4 SU  & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games against the Friars.  Interestingly, they are also 9-1 SU but only 2-6 ATS this season in games against opponents that are off a loss.

No. 9 Michigan State Spartans – Weekend Result: Indiana 80, Michigan State 61
What we wrote: Uh oh.  It appears Indiana head coach Kelvin Sampson is back on the same hot seat that saw him melt away and lose his job at Oklahoma.  Not good news for the Hoosiers, especially at this critical juncture of the season.  Coaching violation investigation aside, both teams meet Saturday in Bloomington, each off a loss in their last game.  The question at hand is if Indiana can put the distractions aside for the moment while finding a way to put a halt to its 1-7 ATS run in games off a loss (0-3 this season), or whether the home team dominance in this series (9-1 ATS last ten games) will prevail?  Tough call.

WHAT WE LEARNED: More times often that not, it’s not a good situation for teams to take on opponents that have a rally cry.  The Spartans were certainly in the wrong place at the wrong time Saturday night when the Hoosiers 'won one for the gipper’ in a resounding victory.  It’s now time for MSU to stand up and be counted.  FYI:  they are 18-6 ATS at home in games off back-to-back defeats.

UP NEXT: Tom Izzo’s troops limp home to host Penn State (Wednesday) and Iowa (Saturday) this week, before taking on Wisconsin and Indiana in two weeks.  Ironically, they will be playing with revenge in ALL FOUR games. For openers, they are 18-3 SU & 16-6 ATS against the Nittany Lions.  Look out Big 10, the Spartans are coming.

No. 10 Butler Bulldogs – Weekend Result: Butler 51, Cleveland State 46
What we wrote: The newest member of the Top 10 teams in the land, Butler, finds itself at home with a cushy two-game lead in the Horizon Conference this Saturday when they battle upstart Cleveland State at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The firs time these two teams met at the Convocation Center in Cleveland the Vikings prevailed, 56-52.  With CSU a half-game back of Wright State for 2nd place in the conference standings, and the 2nd place finisher in the Horizon awarded a valuable ‘bye’ in the first round of the conference tourney (they host a 2nd round matchup, with the winner advancing to the finals thereafter), this game becomes doubly important for the Vikings.  The Bulldogs’ dismal 5-10-1 ATS mark in games with same season revenge when playing off a SU & ATS win finds us grabbing the points.

WHAT WE LEARNED:  following last Saturday’s revenge win over Cleveland State, the Bulldogs need one more win, with three games remaining, to wrap up honors in the Horizon League.  It’s called easy street for the Butler, a well-coached team with grit that figures to make some noise once the March Madness tournament begins. 

UP NEXT: Just one game on tap this week, Wednesday night at Illinois-Chicago.  Yes, the Bulldogs have fared well against the Flames of late (5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS last six games), but it’s best to careful here.  This is UIC’s Last Home Game where they’ve won 14 of their last 15 games while going 10-2-1 ATS.

Editor’s Note: Marc has been on fire on the hardwood, winning 7 of his last 9 guaranteed College releases, and 8 straight NBA guaranteed best bets on this site.  Catch his next COLLEGE WEEKEND PREVIEW this Friday.