Handicappers Notebook - Weekend Review

Handicappers Notebook - Weekend Review
By Marc Lawrence

Like American Idol, auditions for the start of the 2008 March Madness Tournament are taking place as the contestants in this year’s Dance Contest begin putting the final touches on their acts.  Let’s take a look at how the better teams performed this past weekend, and what sort of moves we can expect this week…

No. 1: Memphis Tigers
What we wrote: The Tigers host Central Florida with Memphis doing all they can to stay focused form now until the Big Dance begins.  UCF snapped a three-game losing skein with a 14-point win-and-cover Wednesday night against Marshall and dresses up as a dog in conference play for only the 2nd time this season (1-0 ATS).  Check the status of F Robert Dozier (10.4 PPG / 7.3 RPG) before making a play on this game. Dozier was suspended before the SMU game for disciplinary reasons. The ‘Awesome Angle of the Week’ from our basketball newsletter this week tells us that 19-0 or better double-digit favorites are just 7-18 ATS when facing a .500 or better conference foe. It’s UCF or bust at the FedEx Forum Saturday night.

What we learned: The Tigers are building a strong case to become the first team to finish the regular season unbeaten since the 1990-91 UNLV team. “We're raising the stakes as we go forward,” Calipari said.  The return of F Robert Dozier (one-game suspension for allegedly hitting his girlfriend) helped lead a balanced attack at Memphis next prepares for an invasion of Houston, the No.2 team in the CUSA.  With a 21-point win-and-push against UCF Saturday, the same Awesome Angle quoted above is now 7-18-1 ATS and applies against the Tigers, making the Cougars the play in Wednesday’s matchup of conference felines.

No. 2: Duke Blue Devils
What we wrote: As impressed as you may have been with the Devils convincing win at North Carolina Wednesday evening, keep this thought in mind when they host the slumping Eagles from Boston College.  More often that not, teams tend to celebrate win No. 20 on the season with a lethargic effort the following game.  Yes, we realize Duke is 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in ACC play this year, and also 8-1-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor Arena this season.  And that BC’s stock (0-5 SU & ATS last five games) is dropping faster than Patriot QB Tom Brady at the site of oncoming NYG defensive linemen, but the fact of the matter is the Blue Devils are just 4-7 ATS in games off a SU underdog win and 3-10-1 ATS in games after facing North Carolina. Forewarned is forearmed.

What we learned: An expected letdown took place when the Devils skated past the Eagles in ho-hum fashion with a 90-80 win as 20-point favorites.  BC lead at the half, and by two-points with 10 minutes remaining before Duke finally awoke from it’s slumber.  The Eagles shot 55% from the field while the Devils converted just 44& of their field goal attempts and just 61% of the time from the free throw stripe.  Coach K’s crew returns home Wednesday to host Maryland, a team that ‘s been a thorn in their side of late (3-5 SU & ATS vs Terps) before traveling to Wake Forest on Saturday.  For what it’s worth, Duke has dominated the Demons of late, going 20-3 SU & 18-5 ATS.

No. 3: North Carolina Tar Heels
What we wrote: If Tar Heel head coach Roy Williams could be granted one wish it would be for the return of starting PG Ty Lawson this Sunday when they host upstart Clemson in the Dean Dome.  His leadership, like his sprained ankle, have been sorely missed the pas two games.  Meanwhile, the Tigers invade off their first 30-point conference win since 1999.  It marked the 14th time n 32 games this season that Clemson was able to crack 80 points in a game.  That’s relevant considering the fact that UNC is 10-49 ATS as a favorite in games in which they allow a conference foe 80 or more points, including 1-15 ATS when favored by 11 or more points.  Be careful here.

What we learned: As good a team as the Tar Heels are, the fact of the matter is they, or any other high-profile team, are not going to cover games with a matador defense.  UNC takes on the Virginia’s this week – Tuesday at the Cavaliers in a series that ahs seen the visiting team go 3-9 ATS and Saturday at home against the Hokies, against whom they have double revenge from a pair losses suffered last year against the Techsters.  By the way, Carolina is 1-5 SU & ATS in its last six games against Virginia when they allowed 80-plus points.  In their losses last year against Virginia Tech they allowed 81 and 94 points.

No. 4: UCLA Bruins
What we wrote: Ben Howland’s Bruins will look to make it a clean sweep through Washington when they take on the Huskies at the Bank of America Arena in Seattle Sunday afternoon. As good as UCLA is playing, the feeling here is this could be a tough spot.  Washington’s third straight home loss on Thursday night against USC leveled their record at 10-10 on the season as they are swimming in dangerous water as far as their post-season chances are concerned.  Then again, out data base reminds us that teams in the 4th straight home game, playing off three SU & ATS home losses, are just 6-11 ATS.  To really confuse matters, UCLA is 4-9 ATS as road chalk off a road favorite win and cover, including 2-7 versus a .500 or better opponent.  Your serve.

What we learned: Winning and covering three conference road games in a row is a tough task.  As good as the Bruins are the demands of pulling off a hat trick of this magnitude are difficult.  They return home to host the Oregon’s this week, teams they won and covered against in earlier meetings this season. UCLA is 6-0 SU & ATS in their last six games against the Ducks, and 9-1 ATS in their last ten against the Beavers. FYI: the Bruins are now 83-60-4 ATS in all games under head coach Ben Howland.

No. 5: Kansas Jayhawks
What we wrote: The Jayhawks got back on the win track with a 19-point win over a fragile Missouri squad Monday night.  They’ll host Baylor Saturday night, trying their best to not look ahead to a huge showdown with Texas this Monday night. While peeking ahead to the Longhorns has proven costly in the past (5-9 ATS before Texas, including 2-8 ATS when off a double-digit win), we’re not fully convinced a look ahead is their only potential problem.  It seems Baylor has revenge from last year’s Big 12 tourney knockout loss.  Toss in the fact the Bears are 17-4 this season, with no loss by more than eight points and you can understand our not wishing to knee-jerk with Kansas this weekend.

What we learned: When they need to, the Jayhawks can turn it on.  Despite a lethargic effort in the first half against the battling Bears, Kansas connected for 63% from the floor after the intermission to turn a halftime deficit into a 10-point win.  And they did so despite failing to land a 3-point shot (0-for-9) for the first time in 270 games. Up next is a rematch from last year’s Big 12 title game in which Kansas edged Texas, 88-84.  Good news for the Jayhawks is they are 5-0 ATS in the series against the Longhorns when Kansas owns a win percentage of .890 or better.  Bad news is Texas is 5-0 ATS when revenge against the Jayhawks.  They return home Saturday to host Colorado, a team they’ve devoured in the past, going 37-1 SU & 26-12 ATS.

No. 6: Georgetown Hoyas
What we wrote: G-Town travels to Louisville in the feature game inside the Big East Conference Saturday night.  It’s our contention the Hoyas are a legitimate No. 1 Seed come NCAA Tournament time. They lead the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (35.5%) and rank No. 5 in Offensive Field Goal Percentage (49.8%).  That’s a tough combination to overcome for most teams.  Most team, that is, unless you happen to rank No. 5 in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.4%), as do the Cardinals.  With Louisville (7-3) sitting tow spots back of Georgetown (9-1) in the Conference, this game promises to be a defensive duel to the death.

What we learned: The Big East race is suddenly wide open, and Georgetown’s going to need to win it both the regular and post-season titles if it wishes to garner a coveted No.1 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament. The Hoyas blew an 8-point halftime lead, going scoreless during an 8-minute stretch after the intermission, allowing Louisville back into contention in the Big East Conference.  A 4-for-22 performance from the arc. Meanwhile, Georgetown returns home Monday to host Villanova, a team the knocked out of the Big 12 tournament last year.  The Wildcats are 8-4 SU & ATS in the last twelve meetings in the series, including 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS as dogs during the regular season.  They conclude the week at Syracuse on Saturday, another team that has given them fits of late (2-7 SU & ATS last nine games).  We’ll learn a lot about the Hoyas this week.

No. 7: Tennessee Volunteers
What we wrote: LSU plays host to the Vols this Saturday, a team that continues to salt away all comers despite soft defensive numbers.  How do they do it, you ask?  It seems they are an extremely unselfish squad, one that leads the nation is Assists Per Game (19.8).  Tennessee is a lot the 2nd best tem in the land in Steals Per Game (10.6).  It’s numbers like those that overcome their defensive deficiencies.  While we would normally look to fade the Vols on the road off their 20th win of the season, we won’t do it here.  Not with the Knoxville Cats looking to avenge a tournament loss suffered against the Bengals in last year’s SEC tourney. 

What we learned: Vols escaped from a tough environment Saturday when LSU took the court after their head coach, John Brady, was given the pink slip.  The result was a hard-fought 47-45 win as Tennessee remained a game-and-half ahead of Kentucky in the SEC East Division race. The truth of the matter is the Vols won a game they should not have, shooting just 32% from the field and 27% (4-for-15) from the free throw line.  For what it’s worth, though, teams that win as a double-digit favorite and score less than 50 points in the victory are 9-5-1 ATS if their next game is against a conference foe, including 3-0 SU & ATS as a single-digit favorite.  Let’s see how they perform when they host red-hot Arkansas this Wednesday.

No. 8: Wisconsin Badgers
What we wrote: Don’t blame the Badgers for their dull performance at Iowa earlier this week.  The Hawkeyes are playing much better ball these days, and Wisconsin was likely looking forward this Saturday night showdown in Madison against Purdue.  Along with Indiana, the Badgers and Boilermakers are tied atop the Conference at 9-1, making this game pivotal for the winner.  Have to like Wisky’s 104-6 SU mark in home games under head coach Bo Ryan. Can’t like the fact that Purdue has covered the spread just ONCE in its last 21 losses against avenging teams.

What we learned: The Badgers were burrowed on their revered home court Saturday night, resulting in a stunning 5-point loss to suddenly surging Purdue.  As a result Wisconsin trails the Boilermakers by a half a game in the Big 10 standings.  A quick look at the stat sheet had to have Bo Ryan pulling out his hair as the Badgers canned 30-of-33 shots from the free throw stripe while outrebounding Purdue, 42-21.  They take on a pair of teams they’ve defeated this season, at Indiana on Wednesday, and home versus Minnesota on Saturday.  Wisky is just 5-10-1 ATS in their last sixteen games against a conference opponent playing with same season revenge.  It’s test time for Bo’s boys this week.

No. 9: Stanford Cardinal
What we wrote: Have to be impressed with the Cardinal’s 29-point win Thursday night against Oregon.  It was the Ducks worst conference defeat in three years.  Stanford will look to complete the Oregon pass when they host Pac 10 patsy Oregon State while in quest of the 20th victory of the campaign.  All one needs to do is take a peek at the team Rebound Margin numbers to understand why these two teams are where they are at this stage of the season.  Stanford ranks No. 2 in the nation in this critical category (+11.4 Net RPG), as opposed to Oregon State’s No. 146 standing (+0.7 Net RPG).  Despite the Cardinal’s 20-2 SU & 16-6 ATS mark in this series, not interested in laying this sort of lumber with Sanford off the Oregon rout.

What we learned: The Cardinal performed as expected in a 71-56 win-no-cover performance at home against Oregon State Saturday to pick up their 20th win of the season.  Coupled with UCLA’s upset loss at Washington, Stanford now finds itself tied with the Bruins atop the Pac 10 standings.  They’ll invade the desert in Arizona this week to take on the Sun Devils and Wildcats, a pair of clubs they defeated in Stanford earlier this season.  A season sweep will likely prove will likely prove difficult, despite the Cardinal’s dominance over Arizona State (22-3 SU & 17-7-1 ATS).  The aforementioned win over Arizona earlier this year snapped a six-game series losing skid by Stanford.

No. 10: Michigan State Spartans
What we wrote: Chomping at the bit, Saturday’s home game against Northwestern will be the first game back for Sparty following last Saturday’s stunning loss at Penn State as double-digit road chalk.   Statistically speaking, this game is a mismatch of major proportions with Michigan State the nation’s No. 6 ranked squad in Rebound Margin (+8.7 net RPG) against the Wildcats’ No. 341 (dead last) ranked unit (-13.2 net RPG).  The history book tells us MSU owns Northwestern in this series, going 28-2 SU & 20-10 ATS in the last thirty meetings.  Also note Tom Izzo’s 10-5-1 ATS record in games off a SU favorite loss.  Can only look one way here today. 

What we learned: Beating Northwestern by a margin is like running a marathon uphill.  It doesn’t happen all that often.  Not since head coach Bill Carmody took over the program eight years ago.  In the 234 games they’ve played under Carmody’s command, the Wildcats have lost just twenty of them by 20 or more points. "Like Coach (Izzo) said, a 15-point win against Northwestern is like a 25-point win against any other team. The style they play, the way they slow the game down and run the shot clock, I think we're feeling pretty good about the game,” MSU C Drew Neitzel said after the game. The Spartans travel to Purdue Tuesday night knowing they are 6-0 ATS in this series when the Boilermakers are off an underdog win. They conclude the week at Indiana on Saturday, in a series that has seen the home team go 9-1 ATS the last ten meetings.