Handicappers’ Notebook

Weekend College Hoops Preview
By Marc Lawrence

With the race to San Antonio now in full gear, and the jockeying for the four coveted No.1 Seeds still up for grabs, let’s check in on who, and where, the best teams in the nation will be playing this weekend. After all, this year’s NCAA Tournament will be here before you know it and it’s good to know the condition of the teams upon their arrival to the Alamo… 

No. 1: Memphis Tigers

The Tigers host Central Florida with Memphis doing all they can to stay focused form now until the Big Dance begins.  UCF snapped a three-game losing skein with a 14-point win-and-cover Wednesday night against Marshall and dresses up as a dog in conference play for only the 2nd time this season (1-0 ATS).  Check the status of F Robert Dozier (10.4 PPG / 7.3 RPG) before making a play on this game. Dozier was suspended before the SMU game for disciplinary reasons. The ‘Awesome Angle of the Week’ from our basketball newsletter this week tells us that 19-0 or better double-digit favorites are just 7-18 ATS when facing a .500 or better conference foe. It’s UCF or bust at the FedEx Forum Saturday night.

No. 2: Duke Blue Devils

As impressed as you may have been with the Devils convincing win at North Carolina Wednesday evening, keep this thought in mind when they host the slumping Eagles from Boston College.  More often that not, teams tend to celebrate win No. 20 on the season with a lethargic effort the following game.  Yes, we realize Duke is 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in ACC play this year, and also 8-1-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor Arena this season.  And that BC’s stock (0-5 SU & ATS last five games) is dropping faster than Patriot QB Tom Brady at the site of oncoming NYG defensive linemen, but the fact of the matter is the Blue Devils are just 4-7 ATS in games off a SU underdog win and 3-10-1 ATS in games after facing North Carolina. Forewarned is forearmed.

No. 3: North Carolina Tar Heels

If Tar Heel head coach Roy Williams could be granted one wish it would be for the return of starting PG Ty Lawson this Sunday when they host upstart Clemson in the Dean Dome.  His leadership, like his sprained ankle, have been sorely missed the pas two games.  Meanwhile, the Tigers invade off their first 30-point conference win since 1999.  It marked the 14th time n 32 games this season that Clemson was able to crack 80 points in a game.  That’s relevant considering the fact that UNC is 10-49 ATS as a favorite in games in which they allow a conference foe 80 or more points, including 1-15 ATS when favored by 11 or more points.  Be careful here.

No. 4: UCLA Bruins

Ben Howland’s Bruins will look to make it a clean sweep through Washington when they take on the Huskies at the Bank of America Arena in Seattle Sunday afternoon. As good as UCLA is playing, the feeling here is this could be a tough spot.  Washington’s third straight home loss on Thursday night against USC leveled their record at 10-10 on the season as they are swimming in dangerous water as far as their post-season chances are concerned.  Then again, out data base reminds us that teams in the 4th straight home game, playing off three SU & ATS home losses, are just 6-11 ATS.  To really confuse matters, UCLA is 4-9 ATS as road chalk off a road favorite win and cover, including 2-7 versus a .500 or better opponent.  Your serve.

No. 5: Kansas Jayhawks

The Jayhawks got back on the win track with a 19-point win over a fragile Missouri squad Monday night.  They’ll host Baylor Saturday night, trying their best to not look ahead to a huge showdown with Texas this Monday night. While peeking ahead to the Longhorns has proven costly in the past (5-9 ATS before Texas, including 2-8 ATS when off a double-digit win), we’re not fully convinced a look ahead is their only potential problem.  It seems Baylor has revenge from last year’s Big 12 tourney knockout loss.  Toss in the fact the Bears are 17-4 this season, with no loss by more than eight points and you can understand our not wishing to knee-jerk with Kansas this weekend.

No. 6: Georgetown Hoyas

G-Town travels to Louisville in the feature game inside the Big East Conference Saturday night.  It’s our contention the Hoyas are a legitimate No. 1 Seed come NCAA Tournament time. They lead the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (35.5%) and rank No. 5 in Offensive Field Goal Percentage (49.8%).  That’s a tough combination to overcome for most teams.  Most team, that is, unless you happen to rank No. 5 in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.4%), as do the Cardinals.  With Louisville (7-3) sitting tow spots back of Georgetown (9-1) in the Conference, this game promises to be a defensive duel to the death.

No. 7: Tennessee Volunteers

LSU plays host to the Vols this Saturday, a team that continues to salt away all comers despite soft defensive numbers.  How do they do it, you ask?  It seems they are an extremely unselfish squad, one that leads the nation is Assists Per Game (19.8).  Tennessee is a lot the 2nd best tem in the land in Steals Per Game (10.6).  It’s numbers like those that overcome their defensive deficiencies.  While we would normally look to fade the Vols on the road off their 20th win of the season, we won’t do it here.  Not with the Knoxville Cats looking to avenge a tournament loss suffered against the Bengals in last year’s SEC tourney. 

No. 8: Wisconsin Badgers

Don’t blame the Badgers for their dull performance at Iowa earlier this week.  The Hawkeyes are playing much better ball these days, and Wisconsin was likely looking forward this Saturday night showdown in Madison against Purdue.  Along with Indiana, the Badgers and Boilermakers are tied atop the Conference at 9-1, making this game pivotal for the winner.  Have to like Wisky’s 104-6 SU mark in home games under head coach Bo Ryan. Can’t like the fact that Purdue has covered the spread just ONCE in its last 21 losses against avenging teams.

No. 9:  Stanford Cardinal

Have to be impressed with the Cardinal’s 29-point win Thursday night against Oregon.  It was the Ducks worst conference defeat in three years.  Stanford will look to complete the Oregon pass when they host Pac 10 patsy Oregon State while in quest of the 20th victory of the campaign.  All one needs to do is take a peek at the team Rebound Margin numbers to understand why these two teams are where they are at this stage of the season.  Stanford ranks No. 2 in the nation in this critical category (+11.4 Net RPG), as opposed to Oregon State’s No. 146 standing (+0.7 Net RPG).  Despite the Cardinal’s 20-2 SU & 16-6 ATS mark in this series, not interested in laying this sort of lumber with Sanford off the Oregon rout.

No. 10: Michigan State Spartans

Chomping at the bit, Saturday’s home game against Northwestern will be the first game back for Sparty following last Saturday’s stunning loss at Penn State as double-digit road chalk.   Statistically speaking, this game is a mismatch of major proportions with Michigan State the nation’s No. 6 ranked squad in Rebound Margin (+8.7 net RPG) against the Wildcats’ No. 341 (dead last) ranked unit (-13.2 net RPG).  The history book tells us MSU owns Northwestern in this series, going 28-2 SU & 20-10 ATS in the last thirty meetings.  Also note Tome Izzo’s 10-5-1 ATS record in games off a SU favorite loss.  Can only look one way here today.