College Hoops Midweek Preview

The gloves came off and with it no less than three Top 10 ranked teams hit the deck in a wild and wooly weekend on the college basketball front over the weekend.  As a result we have a new No.1 team and new face reemerging inside this week’s Top 10 poll.

What can we expect as an after effect of Saturday’s titanic battle between Memphis and Tennessee?  You’ll be surprised what we’ve uncovered.  Let’s take a look at what we learned over the weekend, who’s up next, and what to expect, inside this sneak peek edition of games this week…

No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers – defeated Memphis, 66-62

What we learned: Bruce Pearl and the Volunteers go together like bacon and eggs.  In his two-plus seasons with Tennessee the Vols are 71-21 overall, including 43-2 SU & 25-9-2 ATS in Knoxville and 14-9 SU & 17-6 ATS as an underdog.  His team-first concept is working as they lead the nation in Assists Per Game (18.9) and are sixth in the land in Offensive Rebounds Per Game (15.1). Being ranked higher than Pat Summitt’s Lady Vols finds them at the top of the mountain in Tennessee.

Up next: a dangerous visit to Vanderbilt Tuesday night could prove perilous to their lofty new status. The Volunteers beat the Commodores, 80-69, earlier this season and have a showdown with Kentucky on Sunday.  Andy’s 17-0 mark at home this season, and Tennessee’s 0-5 SU & ATS road record in games before facing the Wildcats against opponents off a win, doesn’t bode well for the bullseye now residing on the backs of Pearl’s pupils.

No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels – defeated Wake Forest, 89-73

What we learned: You can sense Roy Williams knows what time of the year it is.  Since Valentine’s day his troops are 3-0 SU and ATS.  That perception, however, is flawed.  According to our database, in his college head coaching career, Williams’ teams are 71-16 SU and 40-44-3 ATS during the regular season from Game 25 out, including 7-17-2 ATS as a road favorite against wining teams. They will be put to the test this weekend.

Up next: a visit to pesky Boston College on Saturday, a team the Heels hammered by 22 points earlier this season.  The one stat that jumps off the page is the Eagles’ 14-6-1 ATS mark as a dog when playing with double-digit same season loss revenge.  Check back for mode fodder when we re-visit this game in our weekend edition of the Cheat Sheet…

No. 3 Memphis Tigers – lost Tennessee, 66-62

What we learned: Top ranked, undefeated teams have a shelf life.  They are often times consumed by hungry opponents in difficult situations.  For the Tigers, the mold on their undefeated cake began appearing after they started they season 18-0.  That was confirmed by the fact they took a 2-5-1 ATS mark in their previous eight games into the frying pan with Tennessee.  The truth of the matter is Memphis now stands a better chance of winning the March Madness tournament than they would have had they entered the event undefeated.

Up next: a home game against Tulsa on Wednesday and a visit to Southern Mississippi on Saturday, teams they trounced earlier this year.  Remember this: teams off their first loss of the season, after starting 20-0 or better, are 0-5 ATS when favored by more than thirteen points in their next contest.  Couple that with the fact the home team in the Tulsa series is 0-5 ATS and suddenly there’s a good chance you’ll be fighting food poisoning should you elect to bite off a piece of the Tigers this week.

No. 4 UCLA Bruins – defeated Oregon, 75-65

What we learned: In games laced with undesirable situations (read: talented, underachieving opposition with their backs to the wall in ‘must-win’ situations) it is defense that steps up and stands tall.  The Bruins are surrendering a mere 56 PPG at home this season; 70 PPG away.  Coupled with being the No. 3 team in the nation in Rebound Margin (+10.2), they bring a lot to the table when it comes to deciding on the top four seeds in this year’s March Madness tournament.

Up next: road tests in the desert at Arizona State Thursday and Arizona Sunday will go a long way in determining whether or not UCLA is a legitimate national champion contender.  They pummeled the Sun Devils by 31 points and powered their way past the Wildcats by 22 in home wins earlier this season.  Still, even though the Bruins are 7-1 ATS on the road this season (5-0 when playing with three or more days of rest), our initial inclination is that they will not go unscathed (ATS) in the land of cactus.

No. 5 Texas Longhorns – defeated Oklahoma 62-45

What we learned: Rick Barnes has learned the hard way that you don’t win games simply by outscoring your opponent.  You win games by out defending your opponent.  In Saturday’s 17-point romp past the Sooners, Texas held Oklahoma to 14-of-53 (26%) from the field.  And just like that, the look Kansas now has is over their shoulder, peering at a fast-charging Longhorn.

Up next: after Monday’s visit to Kansas State, Texas plays its final road game of the campaign at Texas Tech on Saturday.  FYI: The Red Raiders are 4-23 SU and ATS in its last 27 games against Texas, including 0-10-1 in Lubbock.

No. 6 Duke Blue Devils – defeated St. John’s, 86--56

What we learned: After a couple of missteps, Coach K realized the importance of crushing a cripple.  Saturday’s win will hopefully serve as a confidence boost for a team badly in need of instant energy.  In the process the Blue Devils improved their prowess at home this season, now 10-2-1 ATS at Cameron Indoor Arena.

Up next: another victim sporting a handicap placard visits Wednesday when Georgia Tech brings a 0-4 SU and ATS losing streak into Durham before Duke travels to NC State on Saturday. While the Devils have dominated the Yellow Jackets in this series (25-3 SU and 20-6-1 ATS when Duke is off a win), it should be noted Tech has cashed in 8 of its last 9 tries as double-digit dogs, including 3-0 this season.

No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks – lost Oklahoma State, 61-60

What we learned: Like a doctor uses x-rays to look inside a patient, we use recent ATS results to see how a team feels.  Kansas has the flu and will need a strong antibiotic should they wish to return to health in time for the post season.  Following Saturday’s stunning loss to the Cowboys, the Jayhawks are riding a 0-6-1 ATS ledger in its last seven games.  Bill Self was last seen at a doc-in-the box following Saturday’s disaster in Stillwater.

Up next: a road game at Iowa State on Wednesday before returning home to host Kansas State in a monster revenge game Saturday should signal a sense of urgency for KU.  They rubbed out ISU, 83-59, earlier this year but were leveled by nine points at KSU, a loss that ended their 20-0 start to the season.  Good news for Jayhawks’ fans: Kansas is 6-0 ATS with three or more days of rest when playing off a straight-up double-digit loss.  Bad news: they are 7-14 ATS against the Cyclones, including 0-5 off a double-digit defeat.

No. 8 Stanford Cardinal – defeated California, 79-69

What we learned: A dangerous hurdle was avoided when the Cardinal got past arch-rival California this past Sunday in a methodical 79-69 victory.  They have been extremely stingy at home on the Farm, allowing just 55 PPG this season.  Too bad the PAC 10 or NCAA tourneys aren’t at Maples Pavilion.

Up next: an invasion of the Washingtons (Huskies on Thursday; Cougars on Saturday) completes their home slate (14-1) for the season.  Stanford owns wins and covers against both foes this season, leaving one to wonder whether a ‘grand slam’ is in order. Washington is 10-5 ATS the last fifteen tries here as a dog.

No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers – defeated Ohio State, 58-53

What we learned: Big 10 basketball can be ugly, especially when a pair of defensive stalwarts lock horns.  But ugly can win whenever motive and incentive are present.  Hence, the Badgers were able to avenge a loss to the Buckeyes from last year’s Big 10 championship game in the greatest of ways – on OSU’s homecourt.

Up next: only game on tap for the Badgers this week on Thursday and, unfortunately, the shoe is one the other foot.  Wisky hosts Michigan State, this time with the Spartans looking to avenge a loss in last year’s conference tourney.  It will ark the fourth straight revenge game for Sparty who happens to be 6-2 SU and ATS when seeking revenge from a tournament loss.  Color MSU a dangerous dog.

No. 10 Georgetown Hoyas – defeated Cincinnati, 73-53

What we learned: When push comes to shove the best way to play yourself back into the Top 10 polls is by applying a stifling defense.  The Hoyas have one and they spread it on.  As a result they are back in the talk for top seeds in the NCAA tournament.  They are also tied atop the Big East standings with Louisville, with Notre Dame and Connecticut breathing down their necks.

Up next: G-Town hosts St. John’s Wednesday before taking to the road at Marquette on Saturday.  While the Hoyas are 4-0 SU and ATS the last four meetings against the Red Storm (won 74-42 this year) they are just 2-6 ATS in games off a SU and ATS win this season.  No interest here.