If It Looks Too Good To Be True…
There’s an old adage in life that applies particularly well in sports handicapping , namely ‘If It Looks Too Good To Be True It Is’.
A common mistake made by a majority of players is to back a team that looks obvious. Take for instance the New York Yankees in MLB. After opening the season at 21-26, the Pinstripes are playing the best ball in baseball at the moment. Along with it, though, comes a price. And as we round the corner and head into the final month of the season you had better believe the oddsmakers are well in tune with the Yankees success of late.
The best way to capitalize on the Yankees winning run is to FADE THEM with a 4th or 5th line hurler. Especially when they go up against an opponent’s ace – or 2nd best pitcher. Remember, the price on Yanks is being adjusted with each and every win. Hence we find value by being patient and ‘playing against’ them in the right role, with the right pitchers.
Don’t ever forget this philosophy when it comes to handicapping sports – ABO. It’s an acronym meaning Always Beware of the Obvious. If it’s especially obvious to you, rest assured it’s painfully obvious to the oddsmaker, and he’ll make you pay a price to find it out.
