Matty Baiungo

Saturday Recap

Tough way to end what should have been a profitable Saturday. I’m sure you guys saw how the late games ended, and if not, here’s the pain.

Going into the 4th quarter of the Michigan game, our late phone selections were sitting at 2-1 with wins on Maryland and Mississippi, and a loss with Purdue.

And things were looking great in the other two games that were in play. UCLA held a 16-14 lead, and Michigan was giving Penn St all they wanted being down by only 9.

UCLA got dicey. Stanford took a 17-16 lead, but we were still within the number of + 2 ½. Then with about 6 minutes left, Stanford got the ball back and went on an extended drive which ended at UCLA’s 10-yard line. They came up a yard short of a game ending first down, and now had to decide whether or not to kick the field goal or go for the clinching first down. There was just about 1:30 left to play. And after a timeout, Stanford went for the field goal and made it. Great. Now we’re losing 20-16.

But UCLA put together a precision drive that got them a first and goal at the Stanford 7-yard line with 16 seconds to play. Touchdown! UCLA wins 23-16. And we now sit at 3-1 on the late phones with two to play.

Back to Michigan. And this time we got kicked in the teeth. With 2:02 to play, Penn St has the ball on a 3rd and 10 from their own 20-yard line. They were up by 22, and again, we were inside the number of + 24 ½. All the backups are in, and after running on first and second down, don’t ya think a run comes on 3rd down? Nope. They throw the friggin ball, and score on an 80-yard touchdown pass. Are you f - - - ing kidding me? Up by 22 on your own 20-yard line and you throw the ball? A loss for us. Thanks.

Now, instead of a possible 5-1 day or a 4-2 guaranteed, we have to get Virginia Tech home to get there and avoid splitting out. They strike quick to take a 10-0 lead within the first 5 minutes of the game. But that missed opportunity came to bite them and us in the ass because instead of scoring a TD off a BC turnover, Tech could only manage a field goal. And they missed another field goal before the half as well. Those six points left off the board when they lost by 5 while getting + 3 was huge. They lost, and we split out with a 3-3 day on the late phones.

But let’s look at it this way. We had two underdogs, Michigan + 24 ½ and Virginia Tech + 3. At one point, Michigan led 17-7 and Virginia Tech led 10. If we add those together with the spread, we were winning by a score of 54 ½ - 7! That’s a 47 ½ point lead!!! And we lost.

It was tough to take, and now I feel better that I got it off my chest.

Monday Night Football

Are the Giants are on roll? Yes. Have the Giants looked like the best team in football so far this year? Yes. So how can we go against them tonight? Well the situation greatly favors the Browns. Cleveland enters this game off their bye week, and home underdogs are always worth a look in the NFL, especially ones coming off a loss in their previous game before the bye. The Browns are also winless at home this year at 0-2, so this will be a game Cleveland puts everything they have into. At 1-3, their season is on the line and they’ll fire their best shot. The Giants on the other hand are on cruise control, and they really have no need to come in and blow Cleveland off the turf. It’s also the first road game for the Giants in a month. Now I’m sure you’ve heard by now that the Giants have won and covered their last 12 road games. But let’s put that into perspective. They were underdogs in six of those games, and the other six times they were no higher than a 10-point favorite while laying an average of just 5 points per game. And of those six wins, only three have come by more than 6 points. Last week they played a perfect game against Seattle, but don’t expect a repeat performance here, especially against a desperate home dog. Play Browns plus the points.

Rocky On Rocky Top

I think Tennessee misses David Cutcliffe just a little bit. I rate Cutcliffe very high on my coaching list, and as an offensive coordinator, the guy is brilliant. Before rejoining the Tennessee staff for the 2006 season, he was the head coach at Ole Miss (7 years) when he molded Eli Manning and got the Rebels to the Cotton Bowl in 2003. Over the prior six seasons calling offensive plays for Fulmer, Cutcliffe and the Vols were 63-11 SU (85%) and 40-34 ATS (54%). And after a disastrous 5-6 2005 in which Tennessee hit offensive lows averaging 326 yards and only 19 points per game, Fulmer reached out to his good friend and Cutcliffe went back to Knoxville.

So, knowing Cutcliffe’s return would get Tennessee back to respectability in 2006, I wrote this in my preseason football annual: “The coaching talent doesn’t lie with Fulmer at the head, but rather in the assistant ranks with Cutcliffe. Fulmer is not high on our list, and if not for his coup of Cutcliffe we doubt very much we would be endorsing Tennessee right now. Coaches factor heavily into our handicapping, and moves in the assistant ranks usually go unnoticed. Cutcliffe’s presence will be the reason Tennessee wins, not Fulmer. Having Cutcliffe back as the OC is the main reason we think Tennessee will be profitable this year.”

And Cutcliffe delivered. Over his 2-year span, Tennessee’s offense averaged 28 points on 373 yards and 32 points on 401 yards per game. The Vols went 19-8 straight-up and an awesome 16-9-2 against the spread. That was good for 64% winners. Cutcliffe is now the head coach at Duke, a team that went 4-42 over the last four years. And the Blue Devils scored more than 30 points in a game only four times over that span. Currently, Duke is 3-2 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread while scoring more than 30 points in three of their five games already.

What about Tennessee under new offensive coordinator Dave Clawson? The Vols are struggling to say the least at 2-3. They’ve covered only 2 spreads while their offense is scoring just 18 points per game on just over 300 yards of offense per game. And like the Auburn situation above, Fulmer isn’t happy with his offensive coordinator’s system of flip-flopping his offensive lineman. What kind of system is that anyway? Just say it Phil, you wish you had the other Dave still on Rocky Top.

Trouble On The Plains

Well that didn’t take long. After just 6 games, Tony Franklin was fired at Auburn. The offensive coordinator who brought the spread offense to The Plains was cut loose by Tommy Tuberville. Or in Franklin’s words, they “Told me to get lost.” We chronicled the ongoing saga that was playing out in front of the college football world a couple of weeks back. And those tidbits told to us back in August have finally come to a head.

After 6 games last year, former offensive coordinator Al Borges had Auburn off to a 4-2 start. They scored 14 points or more in every game while averaging 28.3 points per game. The Tigers were only 3-3 against the spread, but were small profit earners in conference play at 2-1 against the spread. Franklin’s short time on the job had no such bright spots. Auburn is once again 4-2 straight-up, but they scored 14 points or less in three of their games. They are just 1-5 overall against the spread including a bankroll busting 0-4 against the number in SEC play. The alumni and boosters are none to happy. And neither is Tuberville. Will Tuberville be looking to move on come the off-season due to this circus?

Who knows what to make of Auburn’s chances this week when they host Arkansas? They get the perfect “get well” opponent in the Razorbacks, but Auburn’s offense cannot be trusted laying 18 points. Here’s another interesting saga between Bobby Petrino and Tommy Tuberville that was given the nickname Jetgate back in 2003.

Is The Value Gone?

You often hear the word value being shouted out by handicappers and bettors. You hear stuff like “the value is gone” or “there’s no value in the line.” And many, many other phrases that all seem to contain that clichéd word named value.

Using value is akin to using any stereotypical word or phrase in whatever subject. And it’s probably the most overused word in the handicapping dictionary. Having said that, value still should be respected and you should pay attention to when it presents itself and also when it’s lacking, especially if you want to stay afloat in this activity for more than one football season.

And there’s a classic case of value or lack thereof tonight when Oregon St travels to Utah. The Utes opened as an 8-point home favorite. And many professional bettors saw plenty of value in that line and they hammered it all the way up to 11 ½.

On the flip side, those who like the underdog are now getting their value as they get to take an extra 3 ½ points with Oregon St. They too see a lot of value with the Beavers tonight.

So we have two groups, one that likes Utah and one that likes Oregon St. But they both “think” they have the golden ticket because they have value on their side. But I’m sorry guys, value doesn’t cash tickets, winners do. Now most professional bettors will argue with that because the majority of their winning bets come on lines that off which means they spotted value and took advantage of it. But those guys are few and far between. A minuscule percentage of the betting marketplace is made of guys that are good enough to do that to win year after year.

Betting into bad numbers on a consistent basis is a sure way to the poorhouse. But just because the line has moved against you, it doesn’t automatically mean you can’t bet the game. And tonight’s game is proof of that. If you said to me, “I liked Utah at – 8, but no way I’m laying 11 ½,” my answer to you would be, “You’re making a mistake.”

In last week’s report, I told you how much I value (there’s that ugly word again) coaches much more than the players. And in order for a coach to qualify for one of my coaching spread patterns, they must be with their current team for 3 years and have at least 10 qualifying plays in a particular situation. Both coaches meet that criterion tonight. Here’s what I’ve got.

Oregon St: Mike Riley is currently in his 6th year in Corvallis (excluding his time in ‘97-98). On the road, his Beavers have gone 13-17 straight-up and 15-15 against the spread including an 8-10 spread mark as a road underdog. As a double digit road dog, Riley’s teams are 3-5 to the spread. But of the 17 road losses, only 4 of them have been by less than 12 points with the average road loss coming by 19.4 points per game.

Utah: This is Kyle Whittingham’s 4th year in Salt Lake City. Since he’s been there, Utah is 15-5 straight-up and 9-8-1 against the spread (2 non-board opponents) in home games including a 7-8-1 mark as a home favorite. As a double digit favorite, the Utes are 5-2 to the spread over that span. But of the 15 wins, 13 of them have come by at least 13 points or more with the average home win coming by 21.4 points per game.

So, based on tonight’s line of 11 ½, we have a Utah team that is 13-2 against the spread if they win tonight’s game straight-up and an Oregon St team that is 4-13 against the spread if they lose straight-up. That’s a pretty strong 26-6 (81.3%) spread pattern if you think Utah will beat Oregon St tonight. And that means that the value is not gone on Utah tonight minus the points even with the 3 ½-point line move. If you like Oregon St, you’re better off betting them on the money line (+ 350) because that’s where the value lies with them, not in the point spread. Oregon St could certainly stay within the number tonight, but history tells us they either win the game or get blown out.