Matty Baiungo

$16,000,000 Bust

The Green Monkey has been retired.

The horse brought in a world record $16 million at public auction back in 2006 when he was purchased by the trio of Magnier, Tabor, and Smith…the deepest pockets in the game.

The hype that came with him was so much that it was virtually impossible for him to live up to it on the racetrack. And he didn’t with career racing lines of 3 starts, zero wins, zero seconds, two thirds, and one fourth.

His stud fee is a measly $5,000. That means he’ll need to produce 3,200 babies in order for him to recoup his $16 million dollar sales tag. Good luck.

Sunday's Last Cut

Arizona was my last cut off my late telephone service today. The Cardinals look to be the better team than the Jets right now. Arizona’s offense is way ahead of New York’s. Brett Favre simply does not look comfortable at all (he’s said he only knows 75% of the offense), and enters this game with an injured ankle. Favre and his Jets receivers have little chemistry on the field, and that’s something needed considering how Favre likes to make a lot of impromptu plays in the passing game.

So why am I passing on the opportunity to take points with the Cardinals…the better football team?

NFC West teams have been historically bad against the spread in the Eastern Time Zone. Playing a game on a 10AM body clock has a lot to do with it. And this is the second straight week in which Arizona is faced with that obstacle. They lost and failed to cover last week at Washington.

But head coach Ken Whisenhunt elected to stay near D.C. for the week instead of returning to the West Coast. The move is somewhat unorthodox, especially for an NFL team. Now, on the surface, the move looks like a positive. But the concerns I have are these. By taking the players out of their comfort element; at home with their families and practicing in their facility, does it create some home sick issues? Do the players feel like their on an extended vacation? At night, bored in their hotel room, do they go out for a night on the town? Are they focused solely on football, or are they wondering what’s going on at home?

Those questions are enough to keep me off the Cardinals in this game. The Cardinals are professionals, and they should act like they are on a business trip, but remember, they are human just like you and I.

Anatomy Of A 3-2 Football Game

So what does the anatomy of a 3-2 football game look like?

Auburn’s one-point win over Mississippi St on Saturday night should have actually been a much easier win for the Tigers based on the box score. Despite the lone field goal, Auburn put-up okay offensive numbers; 315 total yards with 161 of those coming on the ground. The 315 yards is low for college football, but with half of those being rushing yards, Auburn actually did enough to generate more than just 3 points.

So what happened?

Auburn’s kicker missed two chip-shot field goals, they turned the ball over three times, and they handed Miss St their only 2 points of the game with a safety. And in fact, Auburn fumbled late in the game when they were trying to run out the clock which gave the Bulldogs hope. But if you watched any part of the game, that hope was like a million to one shot at best. Sly Croom’s offense was totally inept all game long. They gained a little more than the length of the field (116 yards) for the whole game, with 38 yards coming on the ground and 78 through the air.

Numbers like that are pathetic, especially in a major conference like the SEC. Now one could argue that SEC games are typically like this, hard hitting defensive battles with more yardage and more scoring, but c’mon. Had I paid for a ticket to this game, I’d be looking for a refund. It’s not the same as watching a pitcher’s duel in baseball, or a defensive hockey playoff game, or a World Cup soccer match. A football game is supposed to have big plays, long touchdown passes or even short ones, or just a plain old touchdown for cripes sake. A little excitement you know. Under bettors had no sweat in this game, that’s for sure.

For the past 4 years, I’ve been the featured handicapper on a prominent radio show in Alabama. And over that time, I’ve made a few really good contacts that are either tied to the Alabama or Auburn football teams. I’ve been on the receiving end of some good info (and some that never panned out), and heading into this season I was told about the Auburn quarterback situation. There was a clear cut starter despite all of the clichéd “quarterback controversy brewing” talk going on; Kodi Burns was said to be the better QB than Chris Todd, not only from the guys watching practice, but also from some of the player’s mouths…off the record of course. And when head coach Tommy Tuberville named Todd the starter, he had some explaining to do.

And yesterday, as I was researching Auburn’s upcoming game against LSU on Saturday, this blogger’s opinion agreed with what I was told in August. As you know, Tommy Tuberville brought in spread guru Tony Franklin to replace former offensive coordinator Al Borges and try and rejuvenate Auburn’s offense. Well with a new system in place, it is certainly understandable that the Tigers would experience some growing pains. But to suffer these setbacks because of a biased relationship is unheard of in the new college football world of big salary coaches. We’ll just have to wait and see how all of this pans out, but at 3-0, don’t expect much to change in the near future. By the way, LSU has some inexperienced quarterbacks of their own making their first collegiate road start. May we see a 6-5 game this week?

Classic Quote

One of the best quotes I have ever read…

“Delusional people,” Ferentz said when he learned the point spread. “I don’t know how we could be favored against anybody right now – by teens, anyway.”

That classic came from Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz when he was told about the spread for today’s game with in-state rival Iowa St.

The game itself has some good storylines told in this piece in the Iowa City Press-Citizen.

Good Play On USC

Continued from yesterday...

USC @ Virginia 3:30 PM EST
Play On: USC (- 19 ½)

I wrote…An argument can be made that Southern Cal was the best team in college football last year. And that same argument can be made heading into 2008 with the Trojans not the preseason # 1 as they begin behind Georgia and Ohio St. Not sure why though as all three teams ended up at 11-2. Georgia slugged through the regular season and then had the easiest opponent (Hawaii) in the BCS bowl games and routed the Bows 41-10. There was no shame in Ohio St losing to LSU in the championship game, but there was plenty of it after losing to Illinois at home as a 15-point favorite. The same Illinois team that Southern Cal whipped 49-17 as a 14-point favorite in the Rose Bowl. All that happened last year allows USC to enter 2008 with a chip on its shoulder, and they’ll look to make a statement right away.

My thought process…Pete Carroll is a great motivator, and he’s had all summer long to use his skills. The angle I use above is thinking outside the box. Some may think it’s far fetched, but it’s similar to the motivating angles I use in bowl games that has allowed me to go 29-10 (74.4%) with bowl selections over the last three years. I would much rather base my analysis on this type of stuff instead of stats any day of the week.

I wrote…On paper, this game is an utter mismatch. Head coach Pete Carroll usually has his team revved-up from the get-go anyway, but more so this year for the reasons mentioned above. Over the last five years, the Trojans have won their opener by a combined score of 198-54 which breaks down to 33.6-10.8 per game with an average winning margin of 22.6 points per game. And those weren’t against nobodies, rather the likes of Arkansas, Virginia Tech, and Auburn. Their defense allowed 17 points or less in those games, and it should be the case again here facing a very weak Virginia offense. The Trojans have way too much speed and talent for a Virginia team who overachieved in 2007.

My thought process…When I looked backed at how USC wins their opening games, this selection really was a no-brainer even with them laying almost three TD’s on the road. They will not take their foot off the pedal because they want to win in a rout to prove they are the best team in the country. What I failed to mention in my write-up was their favorable scheduling situation. They play at Virginia today, and then have a bye next week before hosting Ohio St on September 13th.

I wrote…The Cavaliers won six games by 5 points or less which included two wins by 2 points and three wins by a single point. Virginia came out of nowhere winning 9 games after going just 5-7 in 2006. Their offense wasn’t any good and hasn’t been over the last two years scoring less than 24 points in 19 of 25 games over that time. And things are not looking any better heading into 2008. The Cavs have a lot of question marks on both lines and at the quarterback position where a starter has yet to be named. Their defense was very good last year, but they have to fall back after losing Chris Long to the NFL. The one caveat to this play is the fact that head coach Al Groh is 13-3 against the spread as a home underdog in his seven years in Charlottesville. But that alone will not prevent a blowout here. Go with USC.

My thought process…Virginia was a fortunate team last year, winning all close games. But with all the talent they lost, and the problems they’ve had over the summer (QB Sewell academically ineligible), this team will be severely overmatched against teams like USC. I am a huge coaching guy, as I believe they are more important than the players. And I’ve used Al Groh a bunch of times in his preferred home underdog role. And rarely, if ever, do I go against my coaching spread patterns. But I am here, and hoping it doesn’t bite me in the ass.

These games split-out with USC rolling to a 52-7 win and Memphis losing 41-24. But the results are really not that meaningful. Now don’t get me wrong, of course I want every game to win because I bet them, but I know that the reasoning behind both selections will make me a winner at season’s end. And that’s what we want…long term profits.

Bad Play On Memphis

A very important part of handicapping success is often overlooked by many people. I believe that after the games go final, one needs to re-examine the selection process to see if in fact the handicap was correct. The bottom line comes in picking more winners than losers, but we all must admit when we were lucky to get a win and come clean when the predicted analysis of a game was way off target.

So here, I want to take you through my handicapping thought process and show you some of the reasons why I chose these games for my late telephone service last week. Every day, I scour various resources like blogs, newspapers, etc…looking for those hidden nuggets that may point me in the direction of a spread winner.

And over the course of a week, I exchange this information I’ve found with other sharp guys whose opinion I respect, and we discuss how it may impact the games. This is a great way for us to get different perspectives because even though we read the same thing, we may interpret it differently.

This weekly process has definitely made me a better handicapper and bettor. And I’m sure it would do the same for you if you incorporated it into your own handicapping. So let’s look at a losing selection on Memphis from last Saturday, and tomorrow we’ll peek at a winning selection on USC and I’ll walk you through my reasoning.

Memphis @ Mississippi 7:00 PM EST
Play On: Memphis (+ 9)

I wrote…Separated by just 85 miles, these two schools have built-up somewhat of a rivalry. They usually open their seasons against each other with Ole Miss getting the best of Memphis. The Tigers rarely win, but they often keep the score very close. The last five meetings have all been decided by 10 points or less, and that puts this spread right in that range. And there are plenty of reasons to expect another close game with the winning margin being slim.

My thought process…First, I knew this was one of those “hidden” rivalry games. Not many even know these schools are so close in proximity, and therefore fail to recognize the significance of the game…for these two schools anyway. It’s not USC-UCLA, Alabama-Auburn…a non high profile game means it will go unnoticed by the novice bettors. And that means we’ll get an inflated line, especially with a SEC team at home against a CUSA team. A quick check of recent history shows how close the games are, and now I’m interested and dig deeper.

I wrote…Memphis basically returns their key components from 2007, and last year’s team rebounded nicely from a dismal 2006 campaign (2-10) to win 7 games and get to a bowl. There’s no shortage of confidence heading into this year off that success, so the Tigers should be able to put together another solid year. Memphis runs a timing offense by getting to the line and then looking to the sideline for a play. This method lets them dictate tempo while not allowing the opposing defense to make substitutions and alignment changes. And in the first game of the year with conditioning not up to par, especially in the heat of the South, the Tigers rate an edge over the Rebels. Now you can argue that timing offenses are not in rhythm in early season play, which is definitely true, but we’re not laying points here so it’s less of a factor.

My thought process…Knowing how Memphis plays offense, I really believe that they can somewhat negate the SEC speed of Ole Miss’ defense, especially in the first game of the year. The fact that all of their skill guys return makes me more confident. Reports out of the Memphis camp were full of positives, and head coach Tommy West repeatedly said he wants to play fast. Plus, the team believes in themselves after going to a bowl last year. They won’t be intimidated.

I wrote…Ole Miss has been the laughing stock of the SEC, winning just 3 of their last 24 league games. So a change was needed in Oxford, and in steps former Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt. He replaces Ed Orgeron, who despite recruiting excellent talent, could not get his kids to play. Nutt steps into a pretty good situation, and he’ll have the Rebels much improved right away. But he still has huge expectations, and that pressure is a lot to overcome out of the gate. The Rebels offense isn’t exactly potent either. Over their last 40 games, they’ve scored more than 28 points exactly once. And over that same span, Ole Miss has been favored by this many points one time in a game they won 13-7. Defensively, the Rebels will be without their best player, Greg Hardy, who is out for 2 months with a stress fracture in his right foot. Like I said earlier, Houston Nutt will have Ole Miss winning games this year. But this is a steep price considering the new coaching philosophies, the familiarity of the teams, and the unfamiliar role of the favorite. Play Memphis plus the points.

My thought process…The brass in Oxford want to win right now and it’s why they went with big-name Houston Nutt. The program was on a free-fall under Orgeron after David Cutcliffe and Eli Manning built them up. Remember them in the Cotton Bowl? And there’s tremendous pressure on Nutt, especially in their home opener against an inferior talent from a lesser conference like Memphis. Nutt’s true coaching ability will need to come out because he doesn’t have studs like McFadden and Jones to carry the load. And the fact that they need to win by double digits to cover is simple way too much in my opinion.