Continued from yesterday...
USC @ Virginia 3:30 PM EST
Play On: USC (- 19 ½)
I wrote…An argument can be made that Southern Cal was the best team in college football last year. And that same argument can be made heading into 2008 with the Trojans not the preseason # 1 as they begin behind Georgia and Ohio St. Not sure why though as all three teams ended up at 11-2. Georgia slugged through the regular season and then had the easiest opponent (Hawaii) in the BCS bowl games and routed the Bows 41-10. There was no shame in Ohio St losing to LSU in the championship game, but there was plenty of it after losing to Illinois at home as a 15-point favorite. The same Illinois team that Southern Cal whipped 49-17 as a 14-point favorite in the Rose Bowl. All that happened last year allows USC to enter 2008 with a chip on its shoulder, and they’ll look to make a statement right away.
My thought process…Pete Carroll is a great motivator, and he’s had all summer long to use his skills. The angle I use above is thinking outside the box. Some may think it’s far fetched, but it’s similar to the motivating angles I use in bowl games that has allowed me to go 29-10 (74.4%) with bowl selections over the last three years. I would much rather base my analysis on this type of stuff instead of stats any day of the week.
I wrote…On paper, this game is an utter mismatch. Head coach Pete Carroll usually has his team revved-up from the get-go anyway, but more so this year for the reasons mentioned above. Over the last five years, the Trojans have won their opener by a combined score of 198-54 which breaks down to 33.6-10.8 per game with an average winning margin of 22.6 points per game. And those weren’t against nobodies, rather the likes of Arkansas, Virginia Tech, and Auburn. Their defense allowed 17 points or less in those games, and it should be the case again here facing a very weak Virginia offense. The Trojans have way too much speed and talent for a Virginia team who overachieved in 2007.
My thought process…When I looked backed at how USC wins their opening games, this selection really was a no-brainer even with them laying almost three TD’s on the road. They will not take their foot off the pedal because they want to win in a rout to prove they are the best team in the country. What I failed to mention in my write-up was their favorable scheduling situation. They play at Virginia today, and then have a bye next week before hosting Ohio St on September 13th.
I wrote…The Cavaliers won six games by 5 points or less which included two wins by 2 points and three wins by a single point. Virginia came out of nowhere winning 9 games after going just 5-7 in 2006. Their offense wasn’t any good and hasn’t been over the last two years scoring less than 24 points in 19 of 25 games over that time. And things are not looking any better heading into 2008. The Cavs have a lot of question marks on both lines and at the quarterback position where a starter has yet to be named. Their defense was very good last year, but they have to fall back after losing Chris Long to the NFL. The one caveat to this play is the fact that head coach Al Groh is 13-3 against the spread as a home underdog in his seven years in Charlottesville. But that alone will not prevent a blowout here. Go with USC.
My thought process…Virginia was a fortunate team last year, winning all close games. But with all the talent they lost, and the problems they’ve had over the summer (QB Sewell academically ineligible), this team will be severely overmatched against teams like USC. I am a huge coaching guy, as I believe they are more important than the players. And I’ve used Al Groh a bunch of times in his preferred home underdog role. And rarely, if ever, do I go against my coaching spread patterns. But I am here, and hoping it doesn’t bite me in the ass.
These games split-out with USC rolling to a 52-7 win and Memphis losing 41-24. But the results are really not that meaningful. Now don’t get me wrong, of course I want every game to win because I bet them, but I know that the reasoning behind both selections will make me a winner at season’s end. And that’s what we want…long term profits.
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