A very important part of handicapping success is often overlooked by many people. I believe that after the games go final, one needs to re-examine the selection process to see if in fact the handicap was correct. The bottom line comes in picking more winners than losers, but we all must admit when we were lucky to get a win and come clean when the predicted analysis of a game was way off target.
So here, I want to take you through my handicapping thought process and show you some of the reasons why I chose these games for my late telephone service last week. Every day, I scour various resources like blogs, newspapers, etc…looking for those hidden nuggets that may point me in the direction of a spread winner.
And over the course of a week, I exchange this information I’ve found with other sharp guys whose opinion I respect, and we discuss how it may impact the games. This is a great way for us to get different perspectives because even though we read the same thing, we may interpret it differently.
This weekly process has definitely made me a better handicapper and bettor. And I’m sure it would do the same for you if you incorporated it into your own handicapping. So let’s look at a losing selection on Memphis from last Saturday, and tomorrow we’ll peek at a winning selection on USC and I’ll walk you through my reasoning.
Memphis @ Mississippi 7:00 PM EST
Play On: Memphis (+ 9)
I wrote…Separated by just 85 miles, these two schools have built-up somewhat of a rivalry. They usually open their seasons against each other with Ole Miss getting the best of Memphis. The Tigers rarely win, but they often keep the score very close. The last five meetings have all been decided by 10 points or less, and that puts this spread right in that range. And there are plenty of reasons to expect another close game with the winning margin being slim.
My thought process…First, I knew this was one of those “hidden” rivalry games. Not many even know these schools are so close in proximity, and therefore fail to recognize the significance of the game…for these two schools anyway. It’s not USC-UCLA, Alabama-Auburn…a non high profile game means it will go unnoticed by the novice bettors. And that means we’ll get an inflated line, especially with a SEC team at home against a CUSA team. A quick check of recent history shows how close the games are, and now I’m interested and dig deeper.
I wrote…Memphis basically returns their key components from 2007, and last year’s team rebounded nicely from a dismal 2006 campaign (2-10) to win 7 games and get to a bowl. There’s no shortage of confidence heading into this year off that success, so the Tigers should be able to put together another solid year. Memphis runs a timing offense by getting to the line and then looking to the sideline for a play. This method lets them dictate tempo while not allowing the opposing defense to make substitutions and alignment changes. And in the first game of the year with conditioning not up to par, especially in the heat of the South, the Tigers rate an edge over the Rebels. Now you can argue that timing offenses are not in rhythm in early season play, which is definitely true, but we’re not laying points here so it’s less of a factor.
My thought process…Knowing how Memphis plays offense, I really believe that they can somewhat negate the SEC speed of Ole Miss’ defense, especially in the first game of the year. The fact that all of their skill guys return makes me more confident. Reports out of the Memphis camp were full of positives, and head coach Tommy West repeatedly said he wants to play fast. Plus, the team believes in themselves after going to a bowl last year. They won’t be intimidated.
I wrote…Ole Miss has been the laughing stock of the SEC, winning just 3 of their last 24 league games. So a change was needed in Oxford, and in steps former Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt. He replaces Ed Orgeron, who despite recruiting excellent talent, could not get his kids to play. Nutt steps into a pretty good situation, and he’ll have the Rebels much improved right away. But he still has huge expectations, and that pressure is a lot to overcome out of the gate. The Rebels offense isn’t exactly potent either. Over their last 40 games, they’ve scored more than 28 points exactly once. And over that same span, Ole Miss has been favored by this many points one time in a game they won 13-7. Defensively, the Rebels will be without their best player, Greg Hardy, who is out for 2 months with a stress fracture in his right foot. Like I said earlier, Houston Nutt will have Ole Miss winning games this year. But this is a steep price considering the new coaching philosophies, the familiarity of the teams, and the unfamiliar role of the favorite. Play Memphis plus the points.
My thought process…The brass in Oxford want to win right now and it’s why they went with big-name Houston Nutt. The program was on a free-fall under Orgeron after David Cutcliffe and Eli Manning built them up. Remember them in the Cotton Bowl? And there’s tremendous pressure on Nutt, especially in their home opener against an inferior talent from a lesser conference like Memphis. Nutt’s true coaching ability will need to come out because he doesn’t have studs like McFadden and Jones to carry the load. And the fact that they need to win by double digits to cover is simple way too much in my opinion.
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