Joe Nelson

NBA Lotto

In what most consider one of the weaker drafts in recent years the 'storied' LA Clippers snagged the #1 pick and lone blue chip prospect Blake Griffin, should the Clippers opt to draft Griffin (stranger things have happened with this franchise). As always the NBA draft lottery raises questions and comparisons with how a draft order should be determined.

Certainly many highly regarded NBA draft picks flame out as busts but the percentage of players drafted in the NBA that turn into at least serviceable NBA players is so much higher than any other sport. Much of that has to do with only two rounds of picks but the number of NBA players drafted in the top few spots that end up out of the league in a few years is very few versus a fairly decent amount in the NFL and a great amount that never even make the big leagues in baseball.

Even with a much higher chance of a successful draft pick, the NBA shakes the draft order up and also has a great system that caps rookie salaries and contracts, though also guarantees a contract for first round picks. An NFL draft lottery would actually make more sense as given the contract demands most teams do not want the #1 pick and would prefer to draft in the 5-10 range. In the NBA draft, you definitely want the #1 pick, you'll pay fractionally more but you have a great chance to lock up a premier player a bargain pricing. The lottery does make it hard on the franchises like the Clippers that continually struggle but this year it worked out for LA as they leaped the two teams with the worst records in the league to grab the top spot.

Don't feel sorry for Griffin, he will be well paid and should put up good numbers immediately. He likely won't be able to make 'the Clip' a winner but he can jump ship in a few years like every other Clippers alumni and things will be fine. The Clippers ownership has to be excited as well, they get to pay a marquee big-name player a cheap salray and don't have to blow money on a few token free agent signings like they did last year. This should always be the way of the Clippers, just a docking spot for premier talent for a few years.

Early Big Ten Thoughts

The football season is a long ways off but it is never too early to start taking a look at the upcoming schedule. The Big Ten is losing ground in national stature with a couple of big game losses but Ohio State can get some credibility back with hosting USC early in the year. The Buckeyes are often criticized for their schedule but consider that the non-conference schedule this year will feature Navy (perennial bowl team), USC (national title contender), Toledo (decent MAC team), and New Mexico State (rising WAC squad) and no FCS teams. Ohio State plays at Penn State and at Michigan so leading the Big Ten may be tough.

The most favorable Big Ten schedule belongs to Wisconsin, a team that overachieved in 2006 and 2007 before falling well short of expectations last season. The Badgers will visit Columbus but will likely be favored in every other game and with road games at Minnesota, Indiana, and Northwestern and not having to play Illinois or Penn State the Badgers could have a shot at the Rose Bowl.

Minnesota was surprising bowl team last year but the schedule should send the Gophers back to earth, new stadium and all. Minnesota must play at Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State, and home games against Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue will all be challenges. The non-conference schedule that was very weak last year will be a beast this year playing at Syracuse and hosting Air Force and California.

Michigan could be a team that sees a big rise in improvement. The non-conference schedule is very weak which will make the Wolverines almost certain to reach bowl eligibility. Penn State and Ohio State will visit the Big House so the chance of a marquee win is there. None of the conference road games will be easy but the Michigan should deliver a much stronger overall record.

Penn State will have a good opportunity to repeat as conference champions as every game should be in the winnable category but a tough trip to Oregon, as well as back-to-back road dates with Wisconsin and Michigan could derail any BCS plans.

18-game NFL Schedule?

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has not been discrete about his interest in shifting to an 18-game regular season schedule once the current collective-bargaining agreement expires. Although the general reaction from most people seems positive there are many possible unintended consequences that could come with such a shift.

No one likes the preseason but it does allow teams time to ready for the season and gives opportunities to a lot of undrafted players or career practice squad players to earn a chance at making a team or getting noticed by another team. With a shortening of the preseason personnel decisions will need to be made much sooner and without live-game experience. Potential injuries are a big knock on preseason football and certainly every year there are some starters that go down in meaningless exhibition games. There is no reason to believe that fewer injuries would occur by making those games count however, and in reality the risk of injury will likely be greater as teams will be rushed into intense meaningful action sooner. If the injury is going to happen anyway, a team is better off if a key player is injured in the preseason as well because they will have time to get a replacement set-up versus trying to fill the hole mid-season. The extra wear of preparation and physical impact of two extra games will be significant and the playoffs may actually feature a worse level of overall play.

Although fans do not like being forced to pay for meaningless preseason games, an 18-game schedule will force fans to pay for meaningless games at the end of the season. With two extra games, the likelihood of significant playoff positioning impact games in the final few weeks of the season will go down significantly. Certainly there is likely to be a few key games that still matter late in the year but more teams will clinch playoff spots earlier in the year and the final few games could turn into games where key players are rested. This is already a problem with the current schedule and it will get worse with 18-games. Teams that have failed to make the playoffs are likely to get young players experience and veteran stars may be taken out of games. There could even be a sense of 'tanking' for draft position, something the NBA has struggled to deal with and the NFL has largely avoided to this point. Essentially there will still be preseason games, it will simply occur at the end of the year for teams that have nothing to play for. This would also wreak havoc and take some enjoyment out of the set-up of fantasy football leagues which has become a huge part of the NFL's popularity.

All current records and statistical measures will be thrown out the window. Every current single-season record would be broken in quick order and career milestones would eventually be wiped out as well. The players currently considered all-time greats would be on the second page of lists for career numbers within a decade. This would give players incredible leverage in contract negotiations in a league that already is often held hostage for key players after a few good years. The league moved from 14 to 16 games and no one remembers the consequences but there will be some negative impacts by this move that appears inevitable.

West vs. East in the NBA

Cleveland moved to 36-1 S/U at home last night and the Cavaliers have to be considered the favorites to win the NBA title as we approach the playoffs. The Eastern Conference has been considered the inferior group of teams for over a decade but a glance at the standings reveals a bit of change this season, as three of the top four records in the NBA will be on the Eastern bracket.

Although it is possible that at least one and possibly more teams with losing records will grab playoff spots in the East, the odds of the NBA champion again coming from the East are stronger than ever. Los Angeles has a great team that will surely be a serious threat but the Magic, Celtics, and Cavaliers are on equal footing. With Cleveland earning the top seed, Boston and Orlando would have to play each other before playing Cleveland which should be a huge advantage for the Cavaliers.

Another intriguing item you'll find upon looking at the standings is that six of the seven worst teams in the NBA by their overall record are in the Western Conference. The West has more solid to pretty good teams, but the East has more elite teams and only Washington can rate as a truly bad team. Phoenix will likely be left out of the playoffs in the West but would qualify as the fifth best team in the East so the argument of conference superiority is not completely clear-cut but overall things are much closer than they were a few years ago and keep in mind that the East has won three of the past five titles and appears to have its best chance for a repeat crown since the Bulls dynasty.

End of Madness

March Madness is nearing a close and once again it was a very chalk heavy tournament in terms of the high seeds moving on in the Big Dance. All of the #1, #2, and #3 seeds advancedto the sweet 16 and even the upsets that looked like upsets in terms of seeding, were not major upsets. Cleveland State was a dangerous team and only a modest underdog against Wake Forest and none of the 12/5 upsets had spreads greater than four. Missouri's win over Memphis might qualify as the biggest upset of the tournament. Credit the selection committee for putting together a great bracket, something that is getting easier to do in this day and age as there is much more exposure for the smaller conferences.

Conspiracy theorists may have cried foul on Michigan State's win over Louisville knowing that ticket sales will get a huge boost with the Spartans playing in Detroit. MSU dominated that game thoroughly however and there would be little to point to as evidence as Louisville played a sloppy game and forced awful shots once they got behind. The Kansas game on the other hand featured several questionable calls that helped the Spartans rally from a huge deficit.

Baseball is just around the corner and a popular story has been Curt Schilling's Hall of Fame credentials. Schilling will go down as a postseason legend but his overall numbers don't quite measure up. Schilling will likely get in as the support is strong and like him or not, he was memorable and made a stamp on and off the field.

Kansas City sportswriter Joe Posnanski had an interesting article about Schilling's numbers being frighteningly similar to Kevin Brown's, a pitcher that no one will give serious thought to for the Hall of Fame. Brown had five fewer wins and fewer strikeouts but a significantly lower career ERA. Brown was not a strikeout pitcher but he allowed far fewer home runs and created far more double plays to be just as effective as Schilling. Brown did struggle in his World Series appearances but had glowing numbers in Division Series games and did pick up a ring with Florida in 1997. Obviously there is no set criteria on entry into the Hall, so the less tangible factors will mean that much more.

Familiar Upsets

Two teams that made a lot of noise in the tournament last year have done so again this season as Western Kentucky and Siena have both moved on with upsets. Neither was a big upset in terms of the pointspread or even the national perception but both are great achievements. Western Kentucky lost the top two scorers from last year’s team and had to deal with a coaching change yet still find itself with a shot to make a return trip to the sweet 16. Siena was given a #9 seed as a nod to their stature based on last year’s run but in reality they were dealt a tough draw playing Ohio State in a less than neutral venue. The Saints somehow found a way to win despite trailing most of the way in one of the most entertaining games of the first round.

Those upsets were both at the expense of the Big Ten and the much maligned conference went 2-5 ATS in the first round although four teams are playing this weekend. Penn State is still alive in the NIT so the conference may have a chance to live up to its billing as a deep quality league.

The Big XII has been the team to play-on so far in first round action with a 6-0 ATS mark on closing numbers although many likely would have lost or pushed on Kansas if they played it early. All six teams are standing from the Big XII so the league will have the opportunity to make a big splash on the field this year and prove its worth. Before getting too eager to back the conference consider that those teams were solid favorites in all but two of the games and that the Oklahoma State and Kansas games could easily have gone the other way. The Big 12 is also off to a 0-4 ATS start in the games played in the NIT, CBI, and CIT games.

The ACC had an awful Friday night with Boston College, Wake Forest, and Florida State joining Clemson out of the field. Unless Maryland pulls off another upset today the powerhouse league will be down to the two perennial contenders, Duke and North Carolina. The Big East has also raised some questions as Pittsburgh, Villanova, and Marquette really struggled in first round wins. Syracuse and Connecticut were impressive and but the Big East went just 2-5 ATS in the first round although West Virginia was the only team sent home.

The conference that seems to continually be underrated and undervalued is the Pac-10 and although it seemed to be a down year for the league with no true national contender there are teams that appear ready to do some damage. Washington and USC were very impressive in opening wins UCLA squeaked by but Arizona and Arizona State also picked up nice wins. California was the only disappointment and the league went 4-2 ATS in the first round.

Impact of Conference Tourney Upsets

Make sure you take into account what an upset means in a conference tournament game. For example in the Big East tournament DePaul knocks out Cincinnati after going winless in the conference regular season. The upstart teams can go either way, they can continue to play well with nothing to lose or they can be content with getting one good effort and lie down the next game. The more important impact is with the opponent.

All week Providence, a team likely on the wrong side of the bubble was expecting to face Cincinnati. The upset completely alters the game plan and changes the emotional state heading into the game. The Friars can take the perspective that they caught a break facing an easier opponent or they can be upset that they did not get a chance to bolster the resume. Providence also could get caught looking ahead to the more important game in the next round.

DePaul did come out and play well and Providence looked flat and clearly were not soundly prepared for the match-up. Although DePaul was playing a second straight game, Providence looked lost, not having the needed prep-time and the mental focus they would have had if they had faced Cincinnati. In the end the better team prevailed and actually almost stole the cover, but DePaul was there the whole way before falling apart in the final minutes.

If there is an upset in a game that leads to a chnage in the opponent for a team coming off a bye in the tournament, be aware of the impact that upset could have. Even though the favorite may be well rested and in a better situation a quick change in the attitude and preparation can cause a disappointing effort.

Celebrate Hockey

Although we don’t follow NHL hockey as close as other sports we did notice the stir that was created by Don Cherry last week with his criticism of Alexander Ovechkin. Cherry is certainly a hockey legend in his own right, to a John Madden or Harry Caray like stature in the Canadian hockey world, and its certainly not the first time he has said something that has rubbed some people the wrong way. His comments had a reasonable point but the soccer celebration clips certainly were in poor taste and painted some less than subtle racism.

The celebrations for goals have become increasingly theatrical but for a league that has struggled in recent years and could be in line for doomsday type struggles in the years to come with the current economic situation perhaps this is something the league needs. The NFL has certainly made efforts to crack down on celebrations but they have made superstars out of players like Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens and although purists can claim to hate it, when it is someone on your team scoring and celebrating you can’t help but enjoy the moment a little bit.

If it helps get a few more NHL highlights on Sportscenter than perhaps this type of celebration should be encouraged. Hockey of course has its own ways of regulating itself and at some point Ovechkin is going to make some enemies and take a cheap shot but it appears he is going to carry the candle for the league in the next decade as he has emerged as the dominant player in the game and he now has a quality team around him in a market that has not had many winners in recent years.

The drama and intensity that builds in hockey and soccer is so great that such exultation after a score is almost impossible to contain. There is such a difference in the energy in a hockey arena or a soccer stadium versus a football field or a baseball park. Many Americans have likely never been to a hockey or soccer game live with a full crowd and it really is an amazing experience with an intense game that means something. It is something that doesn’t quite transfer over onto television which is why the NHL and MLS will always lag way behind the other major sports. Any attention for the NHL right now is good attention and maybe it will not be such a bad thing for Cherry and other hockey purists to paint Ovechkin as a villain because he is good enough to handle it and villains sell tickets just as well as heroes.

ACC Letdown in March

The two tops teams in the ACC both had tough games yesterday with Duke losing at Boston College and North Carolina barely squeaking by Miami. It was a brutal loss for Miami as the Hurricanes have a talented team that can play with anyone but has continued to endure close losses. Jack McClinton may be the best shooter/scorer in the nation from the guard position, Blake Griffin should runaway with the player of the year awards but had Miami pulled out a few more wins McClinton would be a much bigger name as he is posting huge numbers. Miami probably would have won the game had they simply got the ball to McClinton even more as his teammates forced a lot of bad shots early in the game and North Carolina’s suspect defense had few answers.

Tar Heel fans should be worried as UNC does not look like a legitimate national title threat. North Carolina has incredible talent and very well could end up with a #1 seed but expect a flameout prior to the Final Four as a lot of teams have shown how easy it can be to score on UNC. North Carolina’s offense can also put up big numbers but if teams avoid transitional situations and can get back on defense the Tar Heels can look lost at times and the injuries have taken away depth and toughness. Marcus Ginyard may have been the best defender in the ACC and his loss will loom large even if he rarely filled the box scores.

Duke on the other hand is proving to be who most thought they were. Not long ago the Blue Devils were the #1 team in the nation but the ACC season has taken a toll and the Blue Devils lack the inside toughness and athleticism to make up for off-shooting games. Duke is now tied with five other teams for second place in the ACC in the loss column with four conference losses and the schedule will not get any easier. Top to bottom the ACC is still the top conference in the nation but the top teams in the Big East and even some teams in the Big 12 and Big Ten could be threats for deeper NCAA tournament runs as overall, the top teams do not appear to be as strong as we may have thought.

Dream Week at the Garden

Last night's win over Boston last night was a huge victory for the Lakers and propels them to the current top of the elite at least in term's of argument sake for the time being. Coach River's rightfully had some complaints with a few questionable late game calls and non-calls and Kevin Garnett was not quite 100% but it was big the Lakers to prove they can win big games without Andrew Bynum and sitting 2-0 against the Celtics this season will be a confidence boost heading into the playoffs.

The Celtics have a quick turnaround with a trip to Madison Square Garden Friday night. If you are a Knicks season ticket holder this has been the week you have been looking forward to all season and so far the first two legs have delivered with great individual efforts from Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. Hosting the Lakers, Cavaliers, and Celtics in a five-day span is a nightmare for the team but a dream lineup for fans. The Knicks have been competitive in both of the first two games and could catch Boston in a tough spot tonight.

The arguments between who had the better performance between Bryant and James makes for good talk radio, but really is a bit foolish (Notice how odd it sounds to refer to them as Bryant and James, and not Kobe and Lebron, that’s how big these guys are). In reality the triple-double (although some have disputed a rebound) is much more impressive stat line and the Cavs needed a lot of big plays down the stretch as it was a closer game. Bryant’s 61-point effort will be remembered more however as it is such a big number and it sets the bar for games in this legendary arena here on out.