Joe Nelson

18-game NFL Schedule?

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has not been discrete about his interest in shifting to an 18-game regular season schedule once the current collective-bargaining agreement expires. Although the general reaction from most people seems positive there are many possible unintended consequences that could come with such a shift.

No one likes the preseason but it does allow teams time to ready for the season and gives opportunities to a lot of undrafted players or career practice squad players to earn a chance at making a team or getting noticed by another team. With a shortening of the preseason personnel decisions will need to be made much sooner and without live-game experience. Potential injuries are a big knock on preseason football and certainly every year there are some starters that go down in meaningless exhibition games. There is no reason to believe that fewer injuries would occur by making those games count however, and in reality the risk of injury will likely be greater as teams will be rushed into intense meaningful action sooner. If the injury is going to happen anyway, a team is better off if a key player is injured in the preseason as well because they will have time to get a replacement set-up versus trying to fill the hole mid-season. The extra wear of preparation and physical impact of two extra games will be significant and the playoffs may actually feature a worse level of overall play.

Although fans do not like being forced to pay for meaningless preseason games, an 18-game schedule will force fans to pay for meaningless games at the end of the season. With two extra games, the likelihood of significant playoff positioning impact games in the final few weeks of the season will go down significantly. Certainly there is likely to be a few key games that still matter late in the year but more teams will clinch playoff spots earlier in the year and the final few games could turn into games where key players are rested. This is already a problem with the current schedule and it will get worse with 18-games. Teams that have failed to make the playoffs are likely to get young players experience and veteran stars may be taken out of games. There could even be a sense of 'tanking' for draft position, something the NBA has struggled to deal with and the NFL has largely avoided to this point. Essentially there will still be preseason games, it will simply occur at the end of the year for teams that have nothing to play for. This would also wreak havoc and take some enjoyment out of the set-up of fantasy football leagues which has become a huge part of the NFL's popularity.

All current records and statistical measures will be thrown out the window. Every current single-season record would be broken in quick order and career milestones would eventually be wiped out as well. The players currently considered all-time greats would be on the second page of lists for career numbers within a decade. This would give players incredible leverage in contract negotiations in a league that already is often held hostage for key players after a few good years. The league moved from 14 to 16 games and no one remembers the consequences but there will be some negative impacts by this move that appears inevitable.

MLB Early Surprises

Which MLB team off to a solid start is the most likely to stay in contention all year long? There are several teams that may appear to be overachieving so far this season and in all likelihood order will be restored at some point, but through the first 14-16 games of the season there are signs that some teams may really have what it takes.

Those that love offense and runs will not like seeing the Royals and the Pirates both with winning records but both teams may have what it takes to stay in the mix, or at least push for an over .500 season. Both teams have had great starting pitching this season and there is reason to believe that it is not a 2-week fluke. With Greinke, Meche, and Davies the Royals may have the best top of the rotation in the division and Cleveland, Detroit, and Minnesota have really struggled with pitching. Chicago and Kansas City should have the best pitching in the division and the offensive numbers for both teams should be good enough to stay in the mix.

Pittsburgh has found an ace in Paul Maholm as he is off to a great start while Zach Duke and Ian Snell have showed promising starts after inconsistency in the past two seasons. The Pittsburgh bullpen has been among the best in baseball with Matt Capps off to a perfect start. Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens will be the determining factors to whether Pittsburgh can stay relevant and so far both young pitchers have been encouraging.

Toronto may appear to be a more legitimate contender among the teams off to hot starts but in reality the Blue Jays starting pitching has been decimated with injuries and will not hold up all season. Roy Halladay is as good as it gets but he can not carry this team. The hot start on offense is not likely to last and the Blue Jays have not hit the toughest parts of the schedule and inevitably the AL East games will take a toll.

Although Seattle is not likely to win at the same percentage that they have posted early in the year the Mariners probably have a better shot at reaching the postseason. Like the NL West last year the AL West could be an ugly group of teams fighting to stay above .500. The Angels have really struggled early and unless the pitching improves, Los Angeles could stay in the early season hole that they have dug. Oakland was a trendy pick in this division but the A's have not received the offense they expected and the young rotation will see some rough patches. Texas will struggle to hold leads and will burn through pitchers but the offense could carry the Rangers. Seattle has a great 1-2 in Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. Jarrod Washburn has looked great so far this season but the rest of the rotation is still  big question mark for the Mariners.

Early Season AL Thoughts

Two starts does not make a season but what a rough start for Chien-Ming Wang. Nick Swisher was able to pitch a scoreless inning last night for the Yankees but Wang managed to allow eight runs while only getting three outs. Wang has been one of the better pitchers in baseball the last five years so it has been surprising but keep in mind that a lot of pitchers that had very good seasons last year had horrendous starts, C.C. Sabathia and Roy Oswalt quickly come to mind.

Other big surprises has been the offensive production from the other teams in the AL East. The Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox are considered to be the best three teams in baseball by many but the Orioles and Blue Jays lead the standings and have been scoring machines. Toronto has benefited from facing shaky pitching teams Cleveland and Detroit but the Orioles have had a strong start while facing New York and Tampa Bay. Neither should be realistically expected to stay in contention and the back of the rotations will tell you why but there could be some breakout stars on both teams, notably Jeremy Guthrie, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Travis Snider, and Adam Lind, who are all off to great starts.

On the other side of things, AL Central favorites Cleveland and Minnesota have had miserable starts and there is legitimate reason to be really concerned. The Twins offense is sorely missing Joe Mauer and the young pitching staff has been very shaky. Francisco Liriano has also been an early season disappointment. Cleveland will need Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona to find their form after poor outings and the Indians have been a complete wreck so far this year. The door is wide open for Detroit and Kansas City to make a rise to the top although the White Sox could have the best pitching in the division which should give them a chance to repeat.

What was Izzo thinking?

Perhaps I'm just bitter about being on the 'under' in Monday's championship game, a pick that looked foolish pretty early, but why did Michigan State think they could run with the Tar Heels? For a team that dominated the Big Ten and was very adept at playing a slower pace game it seemed logical to try to slow down North Carolina and make the Heels play defense deep into the shot clock. Instead the Spartans threw up many bad shots with 20+ seconds remaining on the shot clock and created many easy transition opportunities for the Tar Heels.

North Carolina took advantage and cruised to a blowout win and a National Championship. Even when it was clear that Michigan State was out of control and playing with panic, Izzo failed to use his timeouts to gather his team and stop the bleeding. North Carolina's defense has shown at several points in the season that they can be scored upon and Michigan State had a good enough defense to make the Tar Heels work for points but a combination of turnovers and poor early shot selection created the exact opportunities that North Carolina hopes for.

Congratulations to the Tar Heels, they clearly were the most talented team in the field and they will likely will be remembered as one of the more dominant championship teams in history. North Carolina certainly could have been had with the right match-up and game plan. North Carolina never had to face a fellow #1 seed but it was a great finish for an immensely talented team and great respect should be shown for Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Tyler Hansbrough, players that could have gone pro but knew they had unfinished business in the tournament.

How incredible is what happened in Arizona yesterday for opening day of the baseball season. Both Felipe Lopez and Tony Clark homered in the same game from both sides of the plate. Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams actually did this in 2000 but this has to be one of the rarest things to happen in the storied history of baseball. Big name pitchers proved to be big busts on Monday with C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, and Francisco Liriano all being hit hard. Don't be afraid to go-against big-name, big-price, pitchers early in the year, like anyone else they take time to find their form and the value can be exceptional.

West vs. East in the NBA

Cleveland moved to 36-1 S/U at home last night and the Cavaliers have to be considered the favorites to win the NBA title as we approach the playoffs. The Eastern Conference has been considered the inferior group of teams for over a decade but a glance at the standings reveals a bit of change this season, as three of the top four records in the NBA will be on the Eastern bracket.

Although it is possible that at least one and possibly more teams with losing records will grab playoff spots in the East, the odds of the NBA champion again coming from the East are stronger than ever. Los Angeles has a great team that will surely be a serious threat but the Magic, Celtics, and Cavaliers are on equal footing. With Cleveland earning the top seed, Boston and Orlando would have to play each other before playing Cleveland which should be a huge advantage for the Cavaliers.

Another intriguing item you'll find upon looking at the standings is that six of the seven worst teams in the NBA by their overall record are in the Western Conference. The West has more solid to pretty good teams, but the East has more elite teams and only Washington can rate as a truly bad team. Phoenix will likely be left out of the playoffs in the West but would qualify as the fifth best team in the East so the argument of conference superiority is not completely clear-cut but overall things are much closer than they were a few years ago and keep in mind that the East has won three of the past five titles and appears to have its best chance for a repeat crown since the Bulls dynasty.