Joe Nelson

End of Madness

March Madness is nearing a close and once again it was a very chalk heavy tournament in terms of the high seeds moving on in the Big Dance. All of the #1, #2, and #3 seeds advancedto the sweet 16 and even the upsets that looked like upsets in terms of seeding, were not major upsets. Cleveland State was a dangerous team and only a modest underdog against Wake Forest and none of the 12/5 upsets had spreads greater than four. Missouri's win over Memphis might qualify as the biggest upset of the tournament. Credit the selection committee for putting together a great bracket, something that is getting easier to do in this day and age as there is much more exposure for the smaller conferences.

Conspiracy theorists may have cried foul on Michigan State's win over Louisville knowing that ticket sales will get a huge boost with the Spartans playing in Detroit. MSU dominated that game thoroughly however and there would be little to point to as evidence as Louisville played a sloppy game and forced awful shots once they got behind. The Kansas game on the other hand featured several questionable calls that helped the Spartans rally from a huge deficit.

Baseball is just around the corner and a popular story has been Curt Schilling's Hall of Fame credentials. Schilling will go down as a postseason legend but his overall numbers don't quite measure up. Schilling will likely get in as the support is strong and like him or not, he was memorable and made a stamp on and off the field.

Kansas City sportswriter Joe Posnanski had an interesting article about Schilling's numbers being frighteningly similar to Kevin Brown's, a pitcher that no one will give serious thought to for the Hall of Fame. Brown had five fewer wins and fewer strikeouts but a significantly lower career ERA. Brown was not a strikeout pitcher but he allowed far fewer home runs and created far more double plays to be just as effective as Schilling. Brown did struggle in his World Series appearances but had glowing numbers in Division Series games and did pick up a ring with Florida in 1997. Obviously there is no set criteria on entry into the Hall, so the less tangible factors will mean that much more.

Familiar Upsets

Two teams that made a lot of noise in the tournament last year have done so again this season as Western Kentucky and Siena have both moved on with upsets. Neither was a big upset in terms of the pointspread or even the national perception but both are great achievements. Western Kentucky lost the top two scorers from last year’s team and had to deal with a coaching change yet still find itself with a shot to make a return trip to the sweet 16. Siena was given a #9 seed as a nod to their stature based on last year’s run but in reality they were dealt a tough draw playing Ohio State in a less than neutral venue. The Saints somehow found a way to win despite trailing most of the way in one of the most entertaining games of the first round.

Those upsets were both at the expense of the Big Ten and the much maligned conference went 2-5 ATS in the first round although four teams are playing this weekend. Penn State is still alive in the NIT so the conference may have a chance to live up to its billing as a deep quality league.

The Big XII has been the team to play-on so far in first round action with a 6-0 ATS mark on closing numbers although many likely would have lost or pushed on Kansas if they played it early. All six teams are standing from the Big XII so the league will have the opportunity to make a big splash on the field this year and prove its worth. Before getting too eager to back the conference consider that those teams were solid favorites in all but two of the games and that the Oklahoma State and Kansas games could easily have gone the other way. The Big 12 is also off to a 0-4 ATS start in the games played in the NIT, CBI, and CIT games.

The ACC had an awful Friday night with Boston College, Wake Forest, and Florida State joining Clemson out of the field. Unless Maryland pulls off another upset today the powerhouse league will be down to the two perennial contenders, Duke and North Carolina. The Big East has also raised some questions as Pittsburgh, Villanova, and Marquette really struggled in first round wins. Syracuse and Connecticut were impressive and but the Big East went just 2-5 ATS in the first round although West Virginia was the only team sent home.

The conference that seems to continually be underrated and undervalued is the Pac-10 and although it seemed to be a down year for the league with no true national contender there are teams that appear ready to do some damage. Washington and USC were very impressive in opening wins UCLA squeaked by but Arizona and Arizona State also picked up nice wins. California was the only disappointment and the league went 4-2 ATS in the first round.

Early Postseason Surprises

Two teams that went winless in the conference season won in the opening conference tournament game. DePaul went 0-18 in Big East play yet managed to upset Cincinnati on Tuesday. On Wednesday Air Force beat Colorado State despite going 0-16 in the Mountain West regular season. These are the types of things that happen this time of year as a favorite can often overlook a team at the bottom of the conference, even if the favorite seemingly should have serious motivating factors.

Much of the bubble intrigue has focused on the Big Ten, where as many as eight teams could get into the NCAA tournament. Although the Big Ten does not have the top heavy powerhouse teams that some of the other conferences have, the depth has warranted that type of consideration. The Big East gets a lot of attention and could even have three #1 seeds but according to the Sagarin ratings the Big Ten is the stronger league this season, second in the nation just behind the ACC. Minnesota and Michigan did their part to get into the dance with wins on Thursday, barring a major upset Penn State should beat Indiana, which might be enough to get in. Two teams that seemed safe last week, Wisconsin and Ohio State may face more importance on their game Friday as the loser might end up last in the pecking order for the conference with all the other bubble teams taking wins.

A pair of teams that everyone knew was very talented, but that grossly underachieved in the season have emerged in the conference tournaments with the do-or-die mentality finally sparking some strong play. Kansas got a lot of help in becoming the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament so it should not be considered a shocking upset by any means but Baylor has delivered two impressive efforts. The Bears were a ranked team early in the year and appeared to be a certain postseason squad but completely fell flat in Big 12 play. The Bears are showing up now and will need to keep the wins coming. Southern Mississippi is another team that was expected to fare much better in Conference USA and is starting to show up in the conference tournament despite coming from a deep seed. It will be asking a lot to make a run for the automatic bid for either team, but stranger things have happened, like last season when Georgia made a surprise run through the SEC tournament.

Impact of Conference Tourney Upsets

Make sure you take into account what an upset means in a conference tournament game. For example in the Big East tournament DePaul knocks out Cincinnati after going winless in the conference regular season. The upstart teams can go either way, they can continue to play well with nothing to lose or they can be content with getting one good effort and lie down the next game. The more important impact is with the opponent.

All week Providence, a team likely on the wrong side of the bubble was expecting to face Cincinnati. The upset completely alters the game plan and changes the emotional state heading into the game. The Friars can take the perspective that they caught a break facing an easier opponent or they can be upset that they did not get a chance to bolster the resume. Providence also could get caught looking ahead to the more important game in the next round.

DePaul did come out and play well and Providence looked flat and clearly were not soundly prepared for the match-up. Although DePaul was playing a second straight game, Providence looked lost, not having the needed prep-time and the mental focus they would have had if they had faced Cincinnati. In the end the better team prevailed and actually almost stole the cover, but DePaul was there the whole way before falling apart in the final minutes.

If there is an upset in a game that leads to a chnage in the opponent for a team coming off a bye in the tournament, be aware of the impact that upset could have. Even though the favorite may be well rested and in a better situation a quick change in the attitude and preparation can cause a disappointing effort.

Celebrate Hockey

Although we don’t follow NHL hockey as close as other sports we did notice the stir that was created by Don Cherry last week with his criticism of Alexander Ovechkin. Cherry is certainly a hockey legend in his own right, to a John Madden or Harry Caray like stature in the Canadian hockey world, and its certainly not the first time he has said something that has rubbed some people the wrong way. His comments had a reasonable point but the soccer celebration clips certainly were in poor taste and painted some less than subtle racism.

The celebrations for goals have become increasingly theatrical but for a league that has struggled in recent years and could be in line for doomsday type struggles in the years to come with the current economic situation perhaps this is something the league needs. The NFL has certainly made efforts to crack down on celebrations but they have made superstars out of players like Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens and although purists can claim to hate it, when it is someone on your team scoring and celebrating you can’t help but enjoy the moment a little bit.

If it helps get a few more NHL highlights on Sportscenter than perhaps this type of celebration should be encouraged. Hockey of course has its own ways of regulating itself and at some point Ovechkin is going to make some enemies and take a cheap shot but it appears he is going to carry the candle for the league in the next decade as he has emerged as the dominant player in the game and he now has a quality team around him in a market that has not had many winners in recent years.

The drama and intensity that builds in hockey and soccer is so great that such exultation after a score is almost impossible to contain. There is such a difference in the energy in a hockey arena or a soccer stadium versus a football field or a baseball park. Many Americans have likely never been to a hockey or soccer game live with a full crowd and it really is an amazing experience with an intense game that means something. It is something that doesn’t quite transfer over onto television which is why the NHL and MLS will always lag way behind the other major sports. Any attention for the NHL right now is good attention and maybe it will not be such a bad thing for Cherry and other hockey purists to paint Ovechkin as a villain because he is good enough to handle it and villains sell tickets just as well as heroes.