Joe Nelson

Between the Lines - Dec. 29

Although there are some lousy match-ups in the final day of the NFL season and several teams often rest key players it is exciting to have all the games played on the same day for a whirlwind Sunday to decide the final playoff spots. Three division titles were up for grabs with wildcard spots mainly unsettled and there was plenty of drama.

The result is a very intriguing wild card weekend featuring four road favorites based on the early numbers. With several questionable division champions and incredible playoff success of wild card teams in recent years the numbers are justified. History says those teams typically do not fare well, as road favorites in the playoffs are rare and have gone just 6-16 ATS since 1980. A caveat however, since 2002 those teams are 3-1 ATS and 4-0 S/U.

This week’s games feature six teams that did not make the playoffs last season and seven of the twelve playoffs teams overall were not represented last year. The two teams playing this week that were in the playoffs last year will play each other again as San Diego and Indianapolis meet in a re-match of a great game last year and a great game in the regular season this year.

The story of the year in ATS numbers has been the incredible success of road teams this year, with road teams hitting nearly 55 percent on the year, though the numbers were much higher heading into the final three weeks. One of the more bizarre statistics is that teams playing in consecutive road games cashed at over a 65 percent clip. None of the four teams on the road this week was on the road last week however.

Those that do not like when teams rest players in week 17 should look no further than Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger’s concussion last week. Early reports indicate he is ready to go but that is hardly the situation desired when entering playoffs.

Week 17 also showed us that teams in must-win situations do not always deliver. Tampa Bay and Chicago both had great playoff opportunities and lost and Denver, Dallas, and the New York Jets turned in poor performances in what could have essentially been play-in games. Minnesota also barely won last week and New England was not exactly dominating. The Lions completed the incredible 0-16 season although as they have many times this year, kept the game interesting until falling apart late.

Keep in mind that last year Miami was 1-15, Atlanta was 4-12, and Baltimore was 5-11 so making a huge leap is now considered realistic. With all three of those teams starting over with new coaches and having great instant success, expect the firing squad to take several shots in the coming weeks. Rod Marinelli, Romeo Crennel, and Eric Mangini are already out the door and more could follow. Amazingly Atlanta and Baltimore have done it with rookie QBs, which might be a dangerous precedent heading into the draft. It was also great to see a revival from Chad Pennington, a player many thought was finished.

Between the Lines 12/19

Even without any games being played college football has managed to stay in the news. Although things could change, one of the big surprises is that Turner Gill is still the head coach at Buffalo. Charles Barkley blasted Auburn officials for not hiring Gill and what Gill has done at Buffalo is remarkable and he deserves a shot at a higher level should he choose to accept it but Gill has been passed over for several big jobs the past two years. Gill’s short stay at Buffalo has been impressive but he is a little short on experience having never been a coordinator but he was a positions coach at Nebraska for many years.

Hiring a coach in the SEC is very tough as programs are pressured to bring in a big name to win immediately and the instant success of coaches like Nick Saban, Les Miles, and Urban Meyer is probably not good for the long-term health of the conference as many teams could shuffle through coaches looking for a quick fix. Tennessee hired a big name, snagging Lane Kiffin with his father in tow fresh off his dismissal from the Oakland Raiders. For the Vols sake let’s hope he has a better Raiders to college football story than Bill Callahan, although that tenure started with great optimism.

Gene Chizik was thought to be a great hire at Iowa State as he was a highly thought of coordinator at Texas and also led the defense of some very strong Auburn teams where he will now take over. Chizik did not have the great impact at Iowa State that was expected and it will not be given the needed length of time to play out. There are a lot of issues that need to be evaluated when hiring a head coach as so much is involved that is not seen on the football field but it is hard to envision great enthusiasm with the Chizik hire at Auburn.

It is hard for fans to see the sense in some hires and also to see the sense in some coach’s decisions to leave. Ball State Brady Hoke is heading to San Diego State. Leaving a team that nearly went undefeated and should be very good next season to go to one of the worst programs in the nation that has had a very tough time being competitive doesn’t make sense if winning is what matters but moving to San Diego and making considerably more money matters quite a bit as well.

The coaching carousel in recent years has led us to treat college coaches much like MLB free agents looking for the best deal and in many ways they deserve that commoditization as many players are tossed aside every year after making life-altering commitments to coaches. As long as teams keep having instant success with a coaching move it will continue to happen in a copycat world. Soon college football could be like the NBA where barely a fourth of the way through the 2008-09 season six coaching changes have been made. If some team makes a mid-season move and it works, another team will be willing to try it, no matter how costly the buyout is or how ugly the settlement could get.

Between the Lines 12/15

What is going on in Pittsburgh Steelers games this season? Just a few weeks removed from the absurd and clearly incorrect replay mess that took away a Pittsburgh cover the review system generated another bizarre and outcome changing decision last week. Whether the Holmes catch was a touchdown or not is irrelevant, it was ruled short of the goal line and no rational person would have been able to discern that there was conclusive evidence to overturn the call. The language in the replay rules is pretty clear and there was absolutely nothing there to justify changing the call. It would be great if we had a replay system where the officials could generate the correct call no matter what, but the rules are in place and they were not followed in that situation.

If you are a Ravens fan, you have legitimate gripe when your team likely fails to make the playoffs. As a football fan you should also be upset as we were robbed of a season defining 4th and inches play for the division title should Coach Tomlin have elected to go for it. Instead we were dealt a very underwhelming and controversial finish to what could have been remembered as one of the great games of the season.

No one was watching but in the Rams/Seahawks game veteran receiver Torry Holt charges that an official made an interference call based on seeing a scoreboard replay and not what he saw on the field. Again, it would be nice if we had a system where getting the correct call was the most important thing but the rules have to be followed if they are in place. There’s no way to know how the official came to that decision and upon the replay the call certainly could be justified but it is a dangerous charge to make and Holt certainly could be fined.

The ‘Just get it right’ mentality is idealistic and might be in the best interest of the game but there would be no way implement such a system and not have drastic inconsistencies in use. The Holt play was not the only long pass interference play that had an impact last week. Arizona also had a long pass interference penalty on Minnesota wiped out after a flag was thrown and the official huddle resulted in the flag being picked up. On Thursday night a 38-yard pass interference call in overtime essentially won the game for the Bears, a shame to see an overtime game where the losing team would basically be knocked out of playoff contention on a judgment call that could be argued either way. The college system that caps those penalties at 15-yards makes much more sense as the 5-yard illegal contact penalties and the huge yardage interference calls are decided on a fine but blurry line in many instances as it just to tough to see what has really happened at full speed.

It is amazing how people’s perceptions of teams can change based on one or two games. A few weeks ago the Giants were clear Super Bowl favorites and then some off-field distractions and two tough division losses and many are jumping off the ship. Just last week most expected Dallas to be out of the playoffs, now with one impressive win the Cowboys are back to being considered the top team by many in the media.

Between the Lines 12/8

Home teams rallied back last week in both the NFL and college last bucking season-wide trends. If you played all the home teams last week you would have gone 20-5 ATS. On the season in the NFL home teams are hitting just 44% but last week only three home teams failed to cover. The changing weather might be a factor but consider that Green Bay hosted one of the furthest south teams in the league and lost while the Giants and Broncos also failed to cover at home. Double-digit favorites also covered in three of four games last week after horrible early season numbers. Favorites of ten or more are still hitting just 33% on the year but late in the season with motivation being vastly different for some teams that trend could turn around.

At what point does Dallas have to reconsider how happy they are with QB Romo? He puts up huge numbers, appears to be a great teammate, and earns lost of points in the PR department for helping change tires and taking homeless guys to movies but he continues to fail to deliver in clutch situations late in the year. After back-to-back playoff flops the past two years Romo gave a key game away by himself on Sunday as Dallas blew a 10-point lead late in the 4th quarter despite the Cowboy defense dominating the game. Given the ball back with a tie-score, three time outs, and plenty of time to deliver a game winning drive, Romo promptly threw a pick-6, one of four turnovers by the QB on the day.

Although many would argue he had it coming, Vikings DE Jared Allen got hit with a cheap shot with a helmet to the knee from a Lions offensive linemen well away from the play. That shot made the hit he was questionably fined for against Matt Schaub look tame. Allen appeared to be somewhat seriously injured on the play but he did return. Had Allen not been injured he likely would have earned more fines and a possible suspension as he limped towards the offender looking to take action before being corralled by a teammate. Allen has some obvious issues but the impact he makes on the field is pretty remarkable.

Back when Miami was 3-3 and trailing each of the other three AFC East teams we said the Dolphins had a very good shot at the playoffs. Move forward and Miami has now won six of the past seven games and is in a three-way tie with the Patriots and Jets. Miami gets to play the Jets still but New England has the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams. What is incredible is that despite going 1-15 last season and now sitting at 8-5 Miami has not been a strong ATS team. Some of that has to do with Miami being a rather competitive 1-15 last year if there such a thing. Also the changes in the organization in the off-season led to expectations that Miami would be significantly improved so there has not been great value on the Fish. Miami has lost ATS in four of the last five games despite losing outright in just one of those games, something that is not common in the NFL as S/U winners typically cover at a very high percentage in recent years.

At first glance it does not appear that an AFC East team will take a Wild Card spot but consider that either Baltimore or Pittsburgh will lose next week as the teams play each other. Coming off that huge game the Ravens go to Dallas on a shot week and the Steelers go to Tennessee, so there is a very good chance that one of those teams will lose its next two games. All three teams in the AFC have a good chance to finish 10-6 and at least two teams could win out and finish 11-5 which would be tough for both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to match. Penciling in the Colts for a wild card spot is a pretty safe bet with the Lions on deck and then Jacksonville before hosting the Titans.

It might sound crazy but do not rule out Washington or the winner of this week’s Bears/Saints game for a Wild Card spot. Dallas has an incredibly tough remaining schedule including a game against Philadelphia at the end of the year that could be an elimination game. The Panthers also have a very tough closing schedule, which would be even more daunting if they lose Monday to the Bucs. Atlanta has two tough games coming up the next two weeks while the Redskins face two losing teams on the road with a home game against the Eagles in between. The Bears and Saints would both have good opportunities in the final two weeks so this week’s winner could get to 10-6. Tie-breakers would be problematic for either team however as the Bears are 0-3 against the three other NFC South teams and New Orleans lost to Washington. Minnesota’s division lead is essentially two games given the tiebreakers.

Feeling Minnesota

There is a lot of unrest in the Twin Cities with the suspensions of Pat Williams and Kevin Williams looming but the Vikings are still in control of the NFC North. At 7-5 Minnesota would likely win the division if they split the final four games. The Bears would have to win out to reach 10-6 and Minnesota would in almost all scenarios have the tie-breaker over the Bears if both teams finished 9-7. If Green Bay wins out to reach 9-7 the Packers would win the division but asking either of those teams to win four straight games is asking an awful lot, although neither team has a horribly difficult schedule remaining.

The Vikings have the toughest remaining schedule of the three teams by far and if there is any team that could lose to the 0-12 Lions, the Vikings would be that team, particularly with all the distractions this week. If the Vikings survive Detroit they would seemingly be in great shape in the division race but this is also a team that has had several recent late season collapses. Last season Minnesota choked a golden opportunity to seal up a playoff spot by losing badly to Washington at home, and there have been many similar situations for this franchise.

Minnesota has to go to Arizona (a spot of another recent final game choke that knocked Minnesota out of the playoffs in 2003), then hosts Atlanta and the New York Giants. Atlanta will obviously be in a fight for the playoffs and the Giants are not likely to rest its starters given how well playing the season finale hard worked for them last year. Atlanta and New York are also two of the best rushing teams in the league so the losses on the D-line will have a big impact. So Minnesota would be best served to win the next two games on the road over the 0-12 Lions and a Cardinals team that should lock up its division this week.

Back to the suspensions, where is the NFLPA in this mess? Pat Williams stands to lose $941,000 if he is suspended the final four games yet the union sits back and is at the mercy of the Commissioner, who has to do something because of the public knowledge of the case. In this era of sports no one can be considered immune from lying but a close look at the players involved in this case makes a pretty strong probable cause argument that the players used the supplement as a weight loss tool and not a masking agent. The players should be responsible for what goes into their bodies but the league has to be responsible for making clear what is allowed and what is not, and in this case it does not appear that effort was sufficient.

The Vikings do not have time to waste looking for excuses and complaining. Take an example from the Giants who had immense distractions last week and delivered a convincing win over a divisional rival on the road. All Minnesota has to do is beat a 0-12 team and a flawed Cardinals team that has an even worse history of collapses than the Vikings and in all likelihood will have nothing to play for. Even if the Vikings do not complete that task the Bears and Packers could send Minnesota to the playoffs anyway.

Between the Lines 12/1

Texas Tech Mike Leach suggested that the Big 12 use graduation rates for tie-breakers. Though this would never gain steam in dollars driven NCAA, Leach does have a point. Tech leads the Big 12 with a 79 percent rate while Texas and Oklahoma sat at 50 percent or worse according to the last NCAA report. Numbers like that should only enhance Leach’s top candidacy for big name jobs throughout the country or a solid raise at Texas Tech.

Though it was expected that Oklahoma would overtake Texas in the BCS standings based on a win over Oklahoma State it was odd to see many voters and media figures stating that Oklahoma’s win was so impressive that they deserved to go. Oklahoma State is a good team and beating them in Stillwater is impressive, but allowing 41 points when you are trying to claim deserving of a spot in the national title game is not. Oklahoma won by 20 but the margin was just 3 late in the 4th quarter as neither defense could get stops. Oklahoma’s win over Texas Tech was impressive, but Texas Tech had the most impressive win over Oklahoma State, winning 56-20 while OU and Texas both played close games with the Cowboys. Texas Tech of course needed a comeback win to beat Baylor last week so the Red Raiders were going to have a tough time making a valid case for inclusion in the argument.

Oklahoma has posted incredible offensive numbers but in Big 12 games the Sooners are allowing 30.75 points per game. Numbers like that should have OU fans worried that another big national game loss may be coming, either this week or in January. The SEC has a provision in its tie-breaking procedure that would account for the head-to-head match-up if teams are closely tied in the BCS rankings. If the Big 12 South went by the SEC tie-breaking rules, Texas would be the Big 12 champion, not Oklahoma. There will certainly be talk of exploring revisions to the system next year, but it really was a rare situation.

If the playoffs started today in the NFL several prominent teams would be on the outside, including the Patriots, Cowboys, and Packers, teams that combined to go 42-6 last season. Those three teams still have a decent shot to make the postseason but the same can not be said for the Chargers, Seahawks, and Jaguars, three teams that were projected as strong playoff contenders this season. At the beginning of the year it is had to imagine such vast changes in the league from one year to the next, but every year this continues to happen.

Road teams continue to deliver incredible results this season as last Sunday only two home teams won outright in the 12 games played. Only Minnesota and Tampa Bay were able to win at home and the Vikings, Browns, and Rams were the only home teams to cover on Sunday, although both Dallas and Philadelphia covered on Thursday at home. The explanations are plenty, the argument could be made that there are simply not as many dominant teams so any team can win any game. The many new stadiums also provide a diminished home field edge as they are designed to make money, not win games. The two West divisions are weak this year so traveling west has been easier than usual. Weather is a real factor in coming weeks so the numbers could level out. It will also be interesting to see how home field advantage plays out in the playoffs as the last three Super Bowl champions all got there without a protected top 2 seed.