Joe Nelson

Between the Lines 11/24

Several of the big games with BCS implications were a bit of a letdown in terms of entertainment value. Oklahoma absolutely routed Texas Tech in the top 5 showdown that was over quickly. Coach Mike Leach was in line for a big payday with lucrative offers coming, those may still come but the embarrassing national TV loss is a setback. The debate between Texas and Oklahoma will rage on but both teams face tricky rivalry games this week and the Big 12 title game will not be a cakewalk against Missouri in Kansas City.

Utah delivered a big win over BYU in the Holy War and that game was much closer than the final score indicated. It was a close game most of the way and Utah won by just 24 despite a 6-0 turnover advantage. Boise State was also a winner to stay undefeated and the Broncos nearly gave the game away with four turnovers of their own.

Two of the most exciting finishes last Saturday featured missed extra points. Oregon State scored late against Arizona to seemingly tie the game but a missed PAT left the Beavers and their Rose Bowl hopes down 16-17. Miraculously the Beavers D held and got the ball back and OSU kicker Kahut got redemption with the winning field goal.

In my home city Wisconsin labored through a tougher than expected game against FCS Cal-Poly. The Badgers trailed throughout the game but Cal-Poly kicker Gardner missed two extra-points which allowed the Badgers to tie the game late with a 2-point conversion. In OT the Mustangs scored on their first play to take the momentum right back but the missed PAT left the door open and Wisconsin survived. Although it would have made headlines as a big upset, Cal-Poly is very good team that earlier this year beat San Diego State and is now 8-2 on the year. Based on the Sagarin ratings Wisconsin would have only been about a 14-point favorite in the game as Cal-Poly would grade higher than about 40 FBS teams, and Saturday’s result certainly proved that assessment.

In the NFL road teams continue to dominate. Road teams are covering nearly 58 percent of the time, an incredible result for such a simple formula. Road favorites have been even more dominant, hitting 66 percent on the season and double-digit underdogs are now hitting just shy of 81 percent with only four missed covers on the season. In what logically seems like a tough situation, teams playing a second consecutive road game are now 28-14-1 on the season for nearly 67 percent wins. Trends often defy logic and convention and although they are never reason enough to take a side they are worth knowing about.

Between the Lines 11/17

The SEC has been given a tremendous amount of praise in recent seasons but this year the conference has been vastly overrated. Alabama and Florida have been very impressive but the fall after the top two is significant. LSU and Georgia have strong records but have been far from impressive. Auburn, Tennessee, and South Carolina have been huge disappointments and Mississippi and Arkansas are in a rebuild process with new coaches. Conference strength goes in cycles and although the SEC had a nice run, that run has ended.

The Big 12 has been the premier conference this season, ranking second by most accounts is the ACC, despite lacking a top tier team the conference also lacks teams at the bottom tier. Vanderbilt is a nice story out of the SEC, as the Commodores clinched their first bowl berth in 26 years last week. Vanderbilt is also a favorite against Tennessee this week. As we’ve mentioned the BCS picture will get very messy if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech this week.

Oklahoma would still have to beat a very good Oklahoma State team the next week but they are in control of their destiny. Should Oklahoma win out, they will win in all likelihood win the division tie-breaker meaning that potential 1-loss Texas or 1-loss Texas Tech will not make a BCS bowl. Those teams could both finish in the top five of the rankings (as they all currently are) yet one will be left out.

Humor us with this scenario: Missouri wins the Big 12 title game against Oklahoma, Texas, or Texas Tech. Oregon State wins out and wins the Pac-10. Who plays the SEC champion in the BCS title game? The ratings would certainly have a team that did not win its conference (likely USC or one of the Big 12 teams) as the second ranked team. This scenario created a lot of controversy the last time it happened with Oklahoma facing USC over an undefeated Auburn team in 2004.

Pro football was not without controversy this week as Steelers backers were given a tough break with the final touchdown not being counted. The bizarre officiating explanation and scramble at the end of the game was exactly what the NFL did not need in a year where officiating has been heavily scrutinized. Millions of dollars swung on that incorrect decision and for the second time this season the Chargers were involved in the officiating snafu. A much less exciting finish led to the first tie in the NFL since 2002 as the Eagles and Bengals traded punts in the overtime period. The tie was crushing for Philadelphia’s playoff hopes but was sadly somewhat encouraging for Cincinnati.

Between the Lines 11/12

We warned that the three top teams were all serious upset risks last week and Penn State, the biggest favorite of the three went down on a last second field goal. Alabama needed OT to hang onto the top spot but the biggest surprise was the complete domination from Texas Tech as the Red Raiders had no letdown at all. The game in Norman in two weeks between Texas Tech and Oklahoma will be a huge game and essentially a conference championship game elimination game.

The BCS rankings will be the tiebreaker (should head-to-head results still leave a tie) in the Big 12 South standings. A tie-breaker is a strong possibility with the most likely scenario being that Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and then beats Oklahoma State, Texas Tech then beats Baylor, and Texas beats Kansas and Texas A&M leaving all three teams at 7-1. Oklahoma would have the edge in that scenario as a win over Tech would give them the ranking jump they need.

Missouri appears to be in a good spot in the North standings though the Tigers still must play Kansas at the end of the year. Keep in mind the title game will be in Kansas City, so Missouri will have a dramatic location advantage over any possible opponent. Texas Tech can eliminate and controversy by winning out but the Red Raiders could create a great deal of controversy should they lose the Big 12 title game after an undefeated regular season.

The SEC is a much simpler equation as Alabama and Florida should meet in the title game with the winner earning a slot in the BCS championship game. USC, Texas, and Penn State appear destined to be one-loss teams on the outside looking in for the championship game. Alabama will have to play two more SEC games and Florida has two tough games with South Carolina and Florida State remaining so either team could open the door for one of the other contenders.

The likelihood of an undefeated non-BCS team is very strong so that will mean just three open positions for teams that do not win the automatic bids. The SEC title game loser will likely get a spot, but determining the Big 12 team to make it will be the big challenge, particularly if Missouri pulls off the upset for the automatic bid leaving just one spot between Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. Ohio State will be a big Missouri fan in the Big 12 title game as they likely stand to be the next team in line as no conference can have more than two bids, that is assuming that Michigan State does not knock off Penn State, which could change the Big Ten picture quite a bit.

Between the Lines 11/3

It is not surprising that Texas Tech leapfrogged Penn State in the BCS standings and do remember that the Red Raiders have three more really tough games standing in the way of a spot in the BCS championship.

If you feel like the top of the polls has been filled with crazy shake-ups in recent weeks, get prepared for the possibilities this week. The three undefeated teams on top of the standings all play as very slight favorites this week with Alabama playing at LSU, Texas Tech hosting Oklahoma State, and Penn State playing at Iowa. A loss by any of those teams would not be a major upset to the informed eye and it would be possible, though unlikely for all three to lose this week.

The one-loss teams sitting next in line will have a lot to play for in the coming weeks and expect those teams to aim to impress. Texas, USC, Florida, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are the one-loss teams that can make a claim but know that Oklahoma State and Oklahoma still play, Texas Tech and Oklahoma still play and the Big 12 South winner will still probably have to play Missouri, and Alabama and Florida would have to play should both teams hold the division leads.

The Big 12 South runners-up will be interesting cases and it will be very interesting which teams get left out when the dust settles as only two teams can claim BCS bids. If Missouri would pull the mild upset in the championship game, there could be even more controversy as only one South representative would earn a BCS spot.

Penn State fans may be worried this week falling to the #3 spot but the odds are pretty good that either Alabama or Texas Tech slips at some point. Both are just 3 to 3½ point favorites this week and even if undefeated Tech will be a dog at Oklahoma and Alabama would be a dog to Florida in the SEC title game.

In the NFL the AFC East features three teams tied at 5-3. The winner of the division could realistically be the 4-4 Miami Dolphins however, the same team that won just once last year. The three 5-3 division rivals are the only winning teams left on the schedule as the other five opponents are a combined 9-31.

The Giants may look like the team to beat at this point in the season but New York will be on the road three of the next four weeks, all against winning teams. No team remaining on New York’s schedule currently has a losing record and the Giants have just three home games left on the schedule.

A couple of young QBs that got a lot of positive attention early in the year have struggled, as Derek Anderson, Jay Cutler, and Trent Edwards should take a lot of responsibility for losses last week.