Joe Nelson

Between the Lines 10/27

The worst nightmare for Big Ten haters is playing out as Penn State knocked off Ohio State to remain unbeaten. If Alabama and Texas win out Penn State will be left out if they also run the table but consider the remaining schedules. Penn State plays at Iowa, and then hosts Indiana and Michigan State.

Alabama must still play at LSU and face Auburn and then likely the winner of the Georgia/Florida game this weekend for the SEC title. Alabama also plays Arkansas State and Mississippi State and given the recent narrow escapes the upset risk should not be discounted. Texas has another tough game this week at Texas Tech and then also must play at Kansas while also hosting Baylor and Texas A&M. Should the Longhorns keep winning they will have to face the North division champion which is still to be determined.

If Penn State had to play this week they might fall into a tough letdown spot coming off the big game, especially with some injuries last week but a timely bye week is waiting. Before assuming that Penn State would be another Big Ten title game blowout victim consider that Penn State is 16-6 S/U and 15-7 ATS in bowl games since 1980. The Lions have gone 6-2 against the current SEC, and 3-1 against both the current Big 12 and Pac-10 in that span of bowl games. The teams likely to have the biggest gripe against Penn State, USC and Florida, are both .500 postseason teams since 1980. The championship game will be in Miami this season and as always the Big Ten will have tremendous location disadvantages in just about every bowl match-up.

In the NFL the Giants moved back into the spotlight with a big win over Pittsburgh but the Super Bowl champs will close with an incredibly difficult schedule. Each of the next eight opponents currently has a winning record and since the Giants had an early bye week they will face a grueling final stretch. While the NFC East teams are likely to beat up on each other the teams with the best records in the NFC could be the Panthers, Buccaneers, and the Cardinals by the end of November. Carolina’s next three opponents have combined to win just six games, Tampa Bay’s next three opponent’s have combined to win four games and both teams will have bye weeks coming up as well. The Cardinals face the three NFC West foes the next three weeks and each of those teams has just two wins.

In the AFC the Titans are in great shape even if they slip in a few games. Given the schedule ahead it is hard to envision the Titans not earning one of the top two seeds in the conference. Pittsburgh is considered a strong contender but the Steelers face a brutal stretch of games in the next eight weeks. The AFC East is likely to produce a wild card team as the division draws the NFC West teams but consider that the Bills have already played three of those four games. The Jets and Dolphins both have three of those games remaining with the toughest, Arizona, already out of the way. Miami also gets to play the three weakest teams in the AFC West so the Dolphins can be a serious playoff threat.

Between the Lines 10/20

The state of Texas is getting both ends of the football world as the University of Texas has had huge wins the past two weeks and enters the first BCS rankings as the #1 team. The schedule is brutal with undefeated teams on deck the next two weeks but the Longhorns are the team to beat right now.

In the NFL the Dallas Cowboys have gone from Super Bowl favorites to the joke of the league. Dallas is still 4-3 but with all the injuries and the distractions a quick recovery is unlikely. The next three games for the Cowboys are against elite NFC teams facing Tampa Bay at home and then division games at New York and at Washington. In the AFC the Tennessee Titans are universally being praised as a Super Bowl contender. The Titans are a legitimate threat but consider that the team has zero wins against winning teams counted in the 6-0 record. Pittsburgh and Buffalo are both considered next in line in the AFC and both also have zero wins against winning teams.

It is still very early in the year but no team in the AFC has more than one win against a team that currently has a winning record (Denver could get a 2nd Monday night). The teams with one win include Jacksonville, Cleveland, New York, Kansas City, and Denver. The team with the most wins against teams that currently have winning records is the 5-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Four of the five wins came against winning teams and no other team in the NFL has more than two wins against such teams.

The first BCS rankings are out this week and there are three match-ups between teams in the top 13 of the rankings this week. For those looking for a playoff system in college football, consider the rest of the season to be a single elimination format. The remaining undefeated teams likely can not afford a loss and the one-loss teams would obviously fall out of the picture with a loss in the coming weeks. There are some surprising teams in the top 25 of the BCS rankings at this point, including Minnesota, Northwestern, Ball State, and Tulsa.

In the various computer rankings Texas and Alabama are unanimous 1-2 teams but the other major undefeated team Penn State is not ranked third in any of the computer polls. A win this week changes all that but the Lions appear to be a team that is overrated and the computers agree. Also interesting is that USC is a borderline top 10 team in most of the computer polls even though the Trojans appear to have a pretty clean path to being the highest ranked one-loss team.

Utah and Boise State appear to be in strong position for a BCS slot if they win out but an unprecedented situation could occur if TCU would win out and knock Utah out of the mix. The one-loss Horned Frogs could conceivably finish high enough in the rankings to qualify as they currently sit at #14. The one-loss came against Oklahoma and the Frogs will need BYU and Utah to maintain strong enough rankings to matter in the schedule. The ACC and the Big East have been absent from any discussion with top teams checking in at #16, and #18.

Between the Lines 10/13

As was the case when he was with the Rams and the Lions, the 49ers will live and die with the Mike Martz offense. Despite running the ball with great success and moving the ball successfully with great balance against Philadelphia last week the 49ers opted to call pass plays on each of their first five offensive plays in the 4th quarter despite having the lead and momentum. Those plays went for a total of negative 16 yards and resulted in two weak punts and eventually allowed the 49ers to turn a nine-point lead into a 14-point loss. Had Correll Buckhalter gained a few more inches on the 3rd and 2 play after the two-minute warning the 49ers would have still held on to the cover but he was just short and the late-game J.T. O’Sullivan turnover circus continued.

In a week of some odd final scores four games were decided by just two points or less on Sunday. All four games featured lead changing scoring plays in the final seconds and two of the victors earned win #1 on the season. Two NFC divisions now feature 3-way ties with Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay all knotted up at 3-3 in the NFC North and most surprisingly the NFC South features three teams at 4-2, none of them being the Saints who were projected by many as the top team in the division. Carolina and Tampa Bay are not major surprises but Atlanta has impressed with back-to-back wins over the Packers and the Bears.

The biggest division leads in the league belong to Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and the Arizona Cardinals who delivered an OT win over the Cowboys. The NFC West is far from a powerful division but consider that only one of Arizona’s wins came against a division opponent. That means that the Cardinals have five games remaining with the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams, teams that are a combined 4-12. The Cardinals must face the Giants, Eagles, and Patriots yet this season but Arizona could end up with one of the better records in the entire NFC.

If there was a major shake-up in the NFL standings last week, there was an earthquake in the college polls. It is only mid-October and every team in the preseason AP Top 10 has lost a game. This week’s new #1 team Texas checked in at #11 in the preseason poll. Odds are that the Longhorns will not stay there for long as they face a Big 12 gauntlet with Missouri up next and then the two other undefeated Big 12 teams, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in the next three weeks. More interesting is that there are six teams that were in the preseason AP Top 20 that now have at least three losses. It is a list of the most disappointing teams in the country: Clemson, Auburn, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Tennessee, and Illinois. The landscape at the top of the polls is likely to change considerably, consider that at this point in the season last year South Florida and Boston College were both ranked in the top 3.

The teams that will benefit the most from all the one-loss powerhouses are the non-BCS conference teams looking make undefeated runs. When they made their respective runs to BCS bowls the last two years Hawaii and Boise State were ranked 17th and 18th at this point in the season. This week BYU, Utah, and Boise State are all already in the top 15 of the AP poll. Ball State and Tulsa would both be interesting cases should they make it deeper into the year without a loss. The resumes would not be impressive with very few quality wins but it did not hold Hawaii back last season. The advantage Hawaii had was a bit of buzz going into the year that helped the Warriors enter into the rankings a bit sooner. Ball State and Tulsa started this year from a much deeper place in the college football consciousness but both could have an advantage at the end of the year with a conference championship game to build some support and national attention.

Errors Dominate Division Series Games

It’s very exciting to see baseball resume after an odd Wednesday with no major sporting event action. You could have wagered on exhibition NBA games but it was a rare fall day with no football, baseball, or regular season basketball or hockey taking place. The WNBA is even wrapped up as well. Normally just the two days surrounding the MLB All Star game offer such a break in the action but with none of the MLB division series going five games the day off came up.

Although there were some great games and excellent moments in the division series this season they will be remembered for sloppy fielding. Errors and defensive misplays have been prominent so far this postseason and hopefully that will change in the division series games as too much is at stake to have teams losing on plays that should be made.

The most egregious mistake was in the Boston/Los Angeles series with Torii Hunter and Howie Kendrick both backing off a pop fly with two outs and the bases loaded, leading directly to three runs in game 3. The Angels wound up winning that game but Los Angeles had several mistakes on the base paths and in the field that proved costly. Hunter, a gold glove center fielder also had a drop on a routine play.

Milwaukee gold glove center fielder Mike Cameron also had two critical drops on catches that were tough plays but plays he is expected to make. The Cubs had a game with an error by each infielder and Milwaukee second basemen Rickie Weeks played out of the lineup with a critical drop on a play covering first base. All in all there was a lot of suspect fundamental baseball in the opening round of the playoffs.

Overall 16 errors were made in the 15 games with the Tampa Bay/Chicago series being the only series that did not feature multiple errors. The Cubs made six errors in just three games but also keep in mind that the error count does not account for several plays that could have been made. Let’s hope for some better play overall in the next round.

Between the Lines 10/6

Five double-digit college favorites lost outright last week as no team is safe from the upset risk. Tulane and Maryland not only lost as big favorites they were blown out by 31-point margins. South Florida, Bowling Green, and Fresno State also bit the dust laying a big number. A couple of other prominent programs had very close calls in the double-digit favorite role as Kansas, Alabama, and Tennessee played in very tight games. Double-Digit favorites have been favorable propositions this season, and despite those notable losses, 55 percent of favorites of ten or more are covering on the season including 15 of 27 last week.

Underdogs have a very slight lead in the overall results but favorites narrowed that gap with decent results last week. NFL chalk continues to rule in the early going but this is not likely to be a repeat of the 2005 season where favorites dominated in a season long book smashing. ‘Over’ plays also are off to a strong start but expect to see some adjustment in the coming weeks. The ‘over’ went 7-6 last week but a couple of games were aided by late scores despite being on pace for ‘under’ most of the game.

Boise State and BYU are getting most of the press for being a BCS-crasher with an undefeated season. BYU has the toughest road there as the three toughest remaining games are all on the road. Boise State has a challenging non-conference test this week but the Broncos should be favored in every game the rest of the way barring a collapse. The team with the best shot to go undefeated from a non-BCS conference however is Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane is posting insane numbers with the top ranked offense in the nation in terms of yardage and points. Tulsa must play at Arkansas and at Houston in November but those appear to be winnable games. The defensive numbers are not strong but they have not needed to be. The early start does not carry considerable weight as only a win over New Mexico brings some credibility and they will be an interesting case if they go undefeated as they are still outside of the Top 25 and may have a tough time climbing to the necessary levels in the polls. If BYU can not get there in the Mountain West, Utah could. The Utes have a more favorable schedule down the stretch as the games against TCU and BYU will be at home. Entering the top 25 this week is another undefeated small conference team as Ball State moved to 6-0. MAC teams rarely get consideration for an undefeated season but the Cardinals have wins over Navy and Indiana already. The final four games are very tough however so surviving is probably unlikely even though this team looks as strong as any MAC team in recent years.

There are still five undefeated teams in the Big 12 but that number will be decreased by at least two this week as Texas and Oklahoma face off in a top 5 showdown at the Red River Shootout and Oklahoma State and Missouri appear poised for a high-scoring affair. No team in the Pac-10, ACC, or the Big East is still undefeated while three SEC teams and two Big Ten teams are still standing.