Joe Nelson

Between the Lines 9/29

Double-digit favorites moved to 0-6 in the NFL this season as Dallas was the latest victim, losing outright to Washington last week. Favorites on the whole have had great success this season in the NFL, winning over 58 percent of the time and road favorites have had unusual success with an 11-6 record so far.

Last week’s card featured three ugly home underdogs with the Chiefs, Rams, and Raiders all sitting as underdogs of over a touchdown at home. After the Chiefs stunned Denver both Buffalo and San Diego looked in trouble in the afternoon games but bad teams find ways to lose and the road favorites not only rallied to win the games but both ended up with narrow covers as well.

The early season has also delivered strong results for ‘over’ players, particularly last week with the ‘over’ going 9-3. In an age where dominant defense is expected from several teams, no team was held to less than nine points and only three teams failed to reach 17 points.

While NFL chalk is rolling, college favorites took a major dive last week. Several prominent top 25 programs lost to unranked teams and there was a big shuffle on top of the rankings this week. Underdogs won in nearly 64 percent of last week’s college match-ups including all three weekday games and the strong run of success for double-digit favorites was halted with a 10-15 mark last weekend. Six double-digit favorites lost outright last week and a few more were seriously threatened as well. A

glance at the conference standings will give you some surprising sights so far. Some of the more prestigious academic programs are proving it on the football field as well as Duke is 3-1, Northwestern is 5-0, Vanderbilt is 4-0, Rice is 3-1, Notre Dame is 3-1, and Stanford is 3-2. Most of those teams have been consistent losers in recent years although through the conference season that may still be the case.

If the Baltimore Ravens win on Monday night we will have an odd quartet of undefeated teams still standing. Buffalo and Tennessee are both 4-0 and the Giants, coming off a bye week, remain the lone undefeated team in the NFC. Tennessee and Baltimore will play next week but the Giants and Bills could continue rolling with the schedules lining up pretty well in the coming weeks. Recall that the Giants are playing a second place schedule despite being the Super Bowl champion, a rare luxury enjoyed after winning as a Wild Card team.

The Giants and Bills were representatives in Super Bowl XXV, the memorable 20-19 win for the Giants that is best known for Scott Norwood’s missed field goal. That game was played in Tampa, the site of this year’s big game. Bruce Springsteen is scheduled to perform at halftime however which is quite a departure from the New Kids on the Block and Michael Jackson who performed in the 1991 game. We are getting a bit ahead of ourselves however as there is a long ways to go and it would not be impossible for both teams to miss the playoffs completely despite the hot starts.

Between the Lines 9/22

Every year in the NFL a team that appears to be a playoff lock seems to have an inexplicable fall from grace. The Patriots are still 2-1 this season but last week’s dusting leaves a lot of questions about the team. Given the schedule and the players still involved the Patriots will likely still be a winning team but they will not be feared like in past seasons.

A couple of other teams that appeared on the fast track to the playoffs appear to be in trouble however as San Diego, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville all have losing records. Although the Jaguars got a big win last week they face the most daunting schedule in the next few weeks of those teams with Houston, Pittsburgh, and Denver up next. The Jaguars were impressive last week with an incredible time of possession edge but the offense has not been able to create scoring plays and the makeshift offensive line will hurt them in many match-ups.

There are four undefeated teams on top of each division in the AFC right now and none of those teams would have been considered the preseason favorite. Tennessee, Buffalo, Denver, and Baltimore all appear on pace for a nice season but it would be hard to imagine all four of those teams lasting all season in playoff position.

The NFC appears to be pretty clear cut as Dallas will be the overwhelming favorite for the rest of the season after knocking off chief competitors the past two weeks. Dallas will have a hard time making it through the NFC East schedule without a loss or two and also keep in mind that the four second half road games for the Cowboys will feature the three other NFC East teams and the Steelers. Dallas will obviously be a serious threat in the NFC picture but the second half schedule is brutal and might leave Dallas in a vulnerable position entering the playoffs.

The NFC East is 8-0 against other divisions as the only losses are against each other. The other three NFC divisions appear completely up for grabs. Only the Rams have counted themselves out of contention so far and every team from those three divisions has at least one loss.

The college conference season hits full stride this week and after very few major upsets last week there may be a few on line this week. Look for some of the teams that played in big games last week to possibly hit a flat spot this week as it is simply tough to get that kind of intensity in consecutive games. Also keep an eye on teams coming off bye weeks, those teams were nearly a 60% ATS proposition last season in both college and pro football.

Huge Win for the Twins

After several weeks of blown leads and rocky bullpen outings the Minnesota Twins came up with might be looked back on as a season-saving propel-to-the-playoffs type of win Thursday night. Down 8-6 in the ninth, Minnesota tied the game with a 2-run home run from Alexi Casilla to tie the game. Then with runners on first and second and no-one out in an obvious bunt situation Adam Everett showed bunt then delivered a double off the wall to put the Twins ahead. Evan Longoria had a chance to hit a fourth home run in the game getting an at-bat in the ninth but Joe Nathan delivered a redeeming save.

Now just a game and a half back with the White Sox losing again in New York, there will quite a finish with nine games to play for Minnesota and ten remaining for Chicago. The Sox will have a tougher journey with six of the remaining games on the road but they do have the lead at present. Red hot Kansas City, winner of seven straight games entering a home series with Chicago, could hold the key as the Royals play both teams. Minnesota will host Chicago for three exciting games next week.

In other baseball action there was scary moment in Arizona as the Cy Young favorite in the NL Tim Lincecum had his hand hit by a Randy Johnson fastball on a bunt attempt. Fortunately Lincecum appears fine and continued to play in what turned out to be a great NL West duel. Lincecum's numbers are incredible this season and he is likely to lead the NL in strikeouts and ERA. Win/Loss record is generally an overated statistic but posting the record he has with a rather lousy Giants team is a remarkable accomplishment.

Both Cy Young races appear well settled in my mind with Cliff Lee also having an incredible season on a marginal team. The MVP races will be much more interesting however as there is not a clear cut winner in either league. Albert Pujols has to be the favorite in the NL and it would be deserving with some simply amazing numbers if you break it down. In the AL it is likely to be a close race and the final games could likely matter as Dustin Pedroia and Justin Morneau will have the opportunity to deliver big numbers in leading their teams to potential division titles. An argument could be made for a half-dozen or so candidates. The batting title race in the AL will also be a close finish with Pedroia and the past two champions, Magglio Ordonez and Joe Mauer, all with nearly identical averages.   

Between the Lines

USC delivered a convincing win in a disappointing big game that could not live up to the hype last weekend. If the scheduling situation was different the result might have been different but it was a very favorable set-up for the Trojans and they played well. USC saved some face for what was nearly a disastrous day for the Pac-10. The conference went 3-7 S/U last week and just 2-8 ATS. Arizona State, Arizona, and California all lost outright as double-digit favorites and had Oregon not pulled out a miraculous double-overtime victory it would have been a very tough week for the Pac-10 credibility outside of USC. UCLA served up the most embarrassing result losing 59-0 to BYU.

The ACC has taken most of the criticism as the weak conference this season but the Big East also deserves some heat. Connecticut won and covered against Virginia last week and that was the first against the spread win for a Big East team so far this season. Currently the Big East is 1-13 against the spread including six S/U losses as favorites. The ACC has not performed well at 6-8 against the spread in non-conference games but North Carolina and Maryland brought some respect back with impressive non-conference wins last week. The Big Ten will deservedly catch some negative publicity with the two marquee teams Ohio State and Michigan getting worked last week but Wisconsin’s win at Fresno State and Purdue playing Oregon tough helps the cause a bit.

As great as the SEC can be the conference did not exactly challenge itself in the non-conference season so far and the Alabama win over Clemson can only carry so much weight. The SEC has a 13-7 ATS record out of the conference but the Big 12 has been the dominant conference so far with a 19-4 spread record. The Big 12 does not feature a marquee win however as Missouri’s win over Illinois would have to be considered the best of a rather unimposing slate of match-ups.

In the NFL home teams had a rough Sunday with only four home teams covering based on the closing line. It was a day of comebacks as Indianapolis, Buffalo, San Francisco, Green Bay, and Denver all won in wild finishes. The Chargers can take up some serious beef with the league for two huge plays that went against them. As much as the replay system has been modified to cover all possible scenarios, the system looked egregiously bad as the Chargers were robbed twice based on an official’s error and a technology malfunction. The bottom line is San Diego, a team that was in the AFC Championship last year is 0-2. As is Seattle, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Cleveland, teams that all appeared to have pretty solid playoff chances this season. The pressure will be on this week as 0-3 would be tough to recover from. Good Luck.

Big East Victory?

South Florida delivered a big win in the closing seconds to beat Kansas in entertaining and important game. It was a huge win for the South Florida program that has put itself on the national map the last two years and the Bulls remain the only hope for respectability for the struggling Big East.

Although the Big East has not had a team in the National Championship game since its current format has taken place there has been several solid contenders. Louisville had a few strong years and West Virginia has remained a national power although they have failed in some big spots. Rutgers and South Florida have made solid recent runs and even Connecticut and Cincinnati have produced some big non-conference wins. Things have not gone well so far this season however as West Virginia was upset last week, Rutgers has been destroyed in two marquee non-conference games, Louisville was whipped by Kentucky and Pittsburgh and Syracuse were upset by MAC teams.

South Florida remains the lone hope for this conference although Connecticut also remains 2-0. As bad as the Big East has been in some of the non-conference games they have been much harsher on the pocketbooks of anyone backing them. The conference is collectively 0-12 ATS on the season. That's right, through two plus weeks of the season, not a single Big East team has covered in a game. For comparison sake, here are the ATS records of the other major conferences in non-conference games.

ACC 3-7, PAC-10 7-3, SEC 10-5, Big 12 15-4, Big Ten 7-8. These records are pretty meaningless as so few games have been played and most games have taken place at home. The smaller conferences have basically broken even against each other and the BCS conference teams: MAC 12-8, Sun Belt 5-6, C-USA 7-6, WAC 4-5, MWC 2-5. Before SEC, PAC-10 and Big 12 fans start bragging also consider that many of the teams from those conferences have played a great deal of FCS teams to limit the opportunities thus far for ATS losses. Also consider that the SEC and PAC-10 both have more non-conference S/U losses than the Big Ten at this point. There's is no way to settle conference superiority debates but one thing is clear, the Big East has not performed well by any measure.

Puzzling Box Scores

Everyone knows that turnovers can win or lose a bet for you on any given week but special teams and penalties are two often overlooked factors that also can play critical roles. Handicapping these factors is far from an exact science but it should not be overlooked in any match-up. Let’s examine two box scores from last week to show how significant the impact can be.

Two underdogs that we were on last week, Tulane and UTEP, ended up splitting but a glance at the box score would leave you quite puzzled. Tulane out-gained Alabama by 146 yards and ended up with the cover as Alabama was overvalued and flat coming off the big week one win. The Alabama offense that picked apart highly ranked Clemson last week produced just 172 yards. Tulane did not turn the ball over and would have had a legitimate upset threat except that Alabama dominated special teams including delivering two 1st quarter touchdowns with a punt return and a blocked punt. Special team touchdowns tend to be huge momentum boosts and can set the tone for a game if they happen early.

We also liked Texas El Paso as a huge home underdog in one the most anticipated games in school history hosting Texas. If you saw the score scroll by on your TV screen you would have assumed it was just another overpowering Texas blowout as the Longhorns won 42-13 and snuck out the cover with two 4th quarter touchdowns. The box score tells a different story however; UTEP out-gained Texas including owning a rushing edge, UTEP had 23 first downs and allowed Texas to convert just one third down in the entire game while holding a huge time of possession edge. Normally those are promising numbers, particularly with a nearly four touchdown underdog, but in was not the case in this game. Penalties burned UTEP in several situations with eleven penalties for nearly 100 yards and Texas ended up with much better field position throughout the game due to superior special teams play.

Redemption for UCLA

The best game of the opening college football weekend may have been the last one to kick off as Tennessee and UCLA both showed up with great defensive efforts. Bruins QB Kevin Craft looked terrible in the first half with four interceptions as the quick and powerful Tennessee secondary looked very tough. The Bruins also looked like the gave the game away with an interception returned for a touchdown in the final minute of the first half after hanging in there despite the mistakes.

It takes great resolve to rebound from such a miserable start to the season but Craft pulled it all together for a successful second half and the Bruins had a brilliant drive to take the lead late in the game. Tennessee would not give up either however and the Vols marched into field goal range aided by a facemask penalty and kicker Daniel Lincoln redeemed earlier misses with the tying attempt to force overtime.

Neither offense could make much of a move in the overtime series and it looked like a second OT might be in the works but Lincoln's tough night continued with a miss to give the Bruins the upset. It was a huge win for new Coach Rick Neuheisel and the UCLA program. The Bruins had more injuries in the game and could be in for a long year but for one night they were on top with a great effort. We wish UCLA had a game next week as it would be an ultimate flat letdown spot but with two weeks before heading to BYU the go-against opportunity may not be as strong.

Most people tune out baseball with football now back in action but it was a great weekend with C.C. Sabathia throwing a almost no-hitter on Sunday and both Stephen Drew and Adrian Beltre hitting for the Cycle on Monday, just a few days after Cristian Guzman accomplished the feat. Cleveland has not done much this season but Cliff Lee pitched a shutout on Monday to move to 20-2, an incredible feat for a pitcher that has had an unremarkable up-and-down career until now.