Dave Cokin

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/30/08

THE TRADE THAT MUST BE MADE

The defending champion Boston Red Sox are in trouble. There's simply no question in my mind that the Manny Ramirez situation is now beyond repair and he needs to be dealt immediately.

Popular opinion is that the Red Sox should hold onto Manny for what they hope is another spot in the post-season and a chance to grab their third World Series championship in the last five years. Or their third in the last 90 years for those who can't stand the Red Sox. I'm an unabashed fan of this team, so one might think I'd be all for keeping Ramirez until the season's over, in hopes that his production outweighs the other issues. After watching their last several games, I'm now convinced that the Red Sox will not make the playoffs if they fail to get Manny out of Boston as quickly as possible.

The Red Sox are completely devoid of their usual spirit right now. For all their talent, they're actually pretty lousy at this point. And there's no question that this all revolves around Manny Ramirez. He's been in the middle of every problem the team has had this season. The lowlights include a dugout row with the always intense Kevin Youkilis, an altercation with the team's 60+ year old traveling secretary over some comp tickets, and Manny's public comments regarding his future with the team that managed to offend the entire organization.

That's just the off the field stuff. On the field, he's flat out dogging it. He's been jogging to first base on ground balls and his play in the outfield has been pathetic. In the past, Manny could always rely on his teammates to defend him publicly. Now, even David Ortiz, his best friend on the team, has been reduced to saying all the right things, but it's apparent to anyone listening he's just offering require lip service.

Manny Ramirez is a great player. He's got Hall of Fame credentials if he never plays another game, and despite the advancing years and a not so athletic body, Manny can still rake with the best, especially when it counts. But he's outlived his usefulness with the Red Sox, and now he needs to go. Not at the end of the season, but right now.

I'm pretty sure Theo Epstein and the Red Sox brain trust feel the same way, and that's why I'll predict that if Ramirez will be wearing another uniform at this time next week.

DONE DEAL #1

First, the Yankees swap with the Pirates. The Yankees gave up a quartet of prospects for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. I don't think this deal is as awful for Pittsburgh as most believe, but it's still a clear win for the Yankees.

Nady has played over his head this season for the Pirates. He's just not this good and I fully expect his production to drop as he moves to the AL East. He'll be facing tougher pitching down the stretch. He's still a nice add for the Yankees, but I actually feel Marte is the more important acquisition. Marte can not only excel as a situational lefty, he's shown he's entirely capable of being a very strong seventh or eighth inning setup type, and he can also close in a pinch. The New York bullpen, a real concern when they moved Joba Chamberlain to the rotation, is now an unquestioned strength.

The Pirates got four players in this deal. Jose Tabata is the centerpiece. His stock has tumbled this year as he's shown some real immaturity playing in AA at Trenton. Tabata's numbers are lousy, his conditioning has been criticized and he's had at least two incidents that cast him in a bad light. The good news is that Tabata is still just 19 years old, and he's got talent. But he's not showing much pop in his bat and there are definite question marks now arising about Tabata that weren't previously there.

Jeffrey Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf and Dan McCutchen are the three pitchers obtained by the Pirates in this trade. Ohlendorf probably has the highest ceiling of the three, with some legit potential as a late inning reliever. Karstens is a back of the rotation type, and I'll say McCutchen is probably about the same.

The consensus is that the Yankees made the Pirates the best offer, so they took it. They shouldn't have. The team sucks again, they don't have much in the way of high end prospects and they could have kept Nady through next season for a very reasonable salary. I don't think they got killed in this deal because I don't consider Nady a big star, but it's still an indication that the Pirates don't really care about winning.

DONE DEAL #2

What is up with Ned Colletti? The GM of the Dodgers has a thing for middle-aged veterans, doesn't he? The latest senior citizen to make the trek west is Casey Blake, who will turn 35 in August.

Unlike Colletti's inane big money off season signings that have actually hurt the team, this deal is actually not bad at all for the Dodgers. Blake's not a superstar, but he's a clutch performer and fills a big need at 3B. And he didn't cost much in terms of prospects.

Jon Meloan was rated the #8 Dodgers prospect by Baseball America prior to the season, but his stock has fallen substantially. Part of the problem is that the Dodgers decided to make him a starting pitcher despite the fact he clearly seems better suited to bullpen work. It hasn't worked. Meloan struggled all season here in Las Vegas, and his velocity also dropped. Meloan has a flawed delivery and he's an elbow injury waiting to happen pitching multiple innings. The Indians have already moved Meloan back to relief at Buffalo, so maybe he can regain his prospect status in the process.

Carlos Santana is intriguing. Coming into the season, he looked like a catcher with legit big league defensive ability, but a very questionable bat. A good season at Hi-A Inland Empire has changed that thinking somewhat. I'm taking his improvement with a grain of salt, as he put up the numbers in a very hitter-friendly league, but Santana is now a guy to keep an eye on.

I'd rate this as a good deal for both teams. The Dodgers get a 3B they can count on for the playoff drive, and the Indians get a couple of interesting prospects for a veteran who really didn't figure in their future.

DONE DEAL #3

Last but not least, the blockbuster. The Braves sent Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.

First, a quick take on Marek. He was the #6 rated BA prospect in the highly regarded Angels organization, so he's got potential. It appears to be mostly as a bullpen set up type, but considering how valuable those components are these days, Marek is more than just a throw-in.

Kotchman is a terrific defender who will hit for average and his power is increasing. There's no reason Kotchman can't become a perennial .300, 20 HR performer. That's not All Star level, but it's sure solid.

Teixeira is the big bat the Halos have coveted to offer assistance and protection for Vlad Guerrero. At first glance, he's just what the doctor ordered for the Angels attack.

But I actually don't like this deal at all for the Angels and consider it a dumb gamble. Here's why. The Angels were a cinch to win the AL West before making this deal. There's no way anyone in that division even makes a run at them. Teixeira is a free agent at season's end and his asking price will be huge. I'm sure the Angels made this trade with the thought that they'll sign Tex. But what if they don't? If that's the case, they just dealt away a very productive 1B with his best years ahead of him for a guy who could, in effect, be an upgrade for as few as three games, depending on what happens to this team in the playoffs.

Sorry, but that makes no sense to me. I'm putting the check mark next to the Braves on this trade.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/10/08

SCRAP HEAP DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH

One of my personal fantasy baseball rules is to get the most plate appearances possible. Accomplish that feat, and you're almost certain to always contend in whatever type of league you're involved with. The rationale is pretty obvious. The more chances you get, the better the opportunity to cash in. Simple enough.

That's why I have trouble comprehending how any regular leadoff hitter can be sitting in the free agent pool in any reasonably deep league. This makes no sense at all to me. If nothing else, leadoff hitters are good for scoring runs, which is always the most overlooked category in typical 5x5 leagues.

That brings me to Atlanta rookie OF Gregor Blanco, who's widely available and has some real value in any deep league format. Blanco is hitting first for the Braves, and he's playing every day. He doesn't have any power, but Blanco has the capability of hitting for a decent if unspectacular BA. If you have the flexibility to platoon him as a fifth or sixth OF, even better. The main thing about Blanco is that he's going to get his owners solid production in runs scored, and he's also a good base stealer.

How about a lightning in a bottle candidate? These are players who probably don't offer a great deal of long term upside, but if you can isolate them in favorable situations, they're well worth owning for as long as they stay hot. As an example, owners who took a stab at Milwaukee 3B Russell Branyan reaped a quick bonanza. The streaky Branyan went wild for a few weeks, and anyone who rostered him garnered some monster power numbers along the way. Branyan is now in the midst of a regression to his norm, and his value is plummeting. But just getting on board with a hot hitter for a couple weeks can make a huge difference when it comes to contending for a league championship.

That brings me to Wes Bankston. The Oakland 1B/DH is getting a shot to play virtually every day right now, and I think he's worth pursuing short term. Bankston was once a pretty hot prospect in the Tampa Bay organization. His progress stalled thanks to a slew of injuries, and he was probably a little over hyped at any rate. But Bankston has done some good work since getting called up by the A's, and I think he's worth a speculative pickup in hopes of reaping a quick reward.

Bankston is 10/30 since going into the A's lineup. He's got decent power and I'm liking the fact he's making regular contact, with only three whiffs to date. I don't see Bankston as a long term producer of note. He probably projects as no more than a .260, 20 HR type playing all the time over a full season. But for the time being, he's hitting fifth for the A's. That means lots of RBI opportunities, and he's taking advantage of his chance presently. Bankston may hit the skids not too far down the road, but I'd take a chance at scoring a couple weeks of good stats by picking him up now if you're in need of a spare CI.

Finally, a veteran reliever who's actually having a terrific year and suddenly offers big short term value. That's Octavio Dotel of the White Sox. Dotel has been pretty amazing this season, with a ridiculously high K/IP rate. He's actually been worth owning just for his K numbers, but now he's got a chance to add a few saves with Bobby Jenks off to the DL for a brief time. I would think Jenks will be back right after the break, but there's no guarantee he stays healthy. Dotel is better suited to the ninth inning duties than Scott Linebrink. And after his lights out door slam Wednesday night against the Royals, I suspect Dotel might be jumping past Linebrink for save opportunities till Jenks returns. Waste no time in rostering Dotel, even if it's for no more than a week or two. But even if the save chances don't come, he could still be of more benefit than a soft #5 fantasy starter who doesn't get big strikeout numbers or is an ERA/WHIP liability.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/13/08

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 06/13/08

MILTON BRADLEY IS WHAT HE IS

Milton Bradley should send thank you notes to disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy as well as league commish David Stern. Thanks to the massive fallout regarding Donaghy’s allegations about officiating improprieties, as well as the ridiculous responses by Stern, Bradley’s latest meltdown got pushed off the front page of the sports section. (If you want my take on the latest, and potentially most damaging NBA scandal ever, listen to the show. Noon-3, ESPNRadio 1100. This is strictly a baseball blog. But I really am getting sick of David Stern and his totally condescending attitude. Aren’t you?)

As for Bradley, it was established long ago that he’s got tons of talent and that he’s a loose cannon who acts out before he thinks. This latest incident occurred after he heard a diatribe by Royals play by play man Ryan Lefebvre, in which Bradley was criticized for not being more like Josh Hamilton in terms of handling his problems. Bradley managed to get so upset that he walked up four flights of stairs while still in full uniform, cleats and all, apparently in an attempt to confront Lefebvre about the commentary. He never got to Lefebvre and there’s no way to accurately guess what might have taken place if he had. Bradley claims he simply wanted to “introduce” himself to Lefebvre.

Bradley was eventually ushered back to the Rangers clubhouse, at which point he evidently broke down in tears about being picked on by the media once again. Let’s face it, the guy simply doesn’t get it. He’s never been able to curb his volatile temper. He consistently exacerbates the situation with hot dog displays on the field, along with not so infrequent yelling matches with fans. Yet he wonders why he seems to be getting singled out as a troublemaker by the media. And he can’t understand why he’s unappreciated by fans. Milton Bradley is clearly a man who cannot see the forest for the trees.

As for Lefebvre, he’s drawn a little criticism for his Hamilton-Bradley comparison. Why? It seems crystal clear to me that Josh Hamilton has learned from his mistakes and is trying to do everything the right way now. The same cannot be said for Milton Bradley. He keeps repeating the same pattern of behavior over and over. The best advice anyone could give Bradley is to grow up, but that’s apparently something he simply doesn’t want to do.

YA GOTTA HAVE HART

Corey Hart is now hitting leadoff for the Milwaukee Brewers with Rickie Weeks back on the DL with yet another injury. Hart is not really the prototypical #1 hitter, as he’s not exactly an OBP machine. He’s probably never going to garner loads of walks with his aggressive approach. But he’s still an upgrade at this spot from Weeks, who simply can’t hit. I understand the fascination with Weeks. He’s got all five tools and just looks like he ought to be a star. But the numbers just aren’t there. A .210 BA, .325 OBP and a dreadfully low .686 OPS are clear indicators Weeks is misplaced as a leadoff hitter. Hart is simply a much more productive hitter and a quick scan of his situational stats show that when hitting in the #1 slot, Hart becomes more aggressive on the basepaths as well, with a good number of stolen bases.

I’ll be watching to see what Brewers skipper Ned Yost does when Weeks is ready to return. It sure looks to me like Milwaukee’s lineup looks much more daunting with Hart leading off. Weeks should be dropped to the bottom of the order until he shows he can stop making so many outs.

Meanwhile, Hart is a great fantasy target. He’s likely to deliver plenty of power and speed as long as he’s leading off. I believe he’s got Top 25 value at this juncture as he’s got the goods to deliver in all five categories. Find out what it would take to get him, and if you already own him, enjoy the ride and resist anything short of a genuine no-brainer offer.

LYON OF A CLOSER

Brandon Lyon was regarded as the closer with the shortest leash heading into the 2008 campaign. Lyon inherited the Diamondbacks ninth-inning duties when Jose Valverde was dealt to Houston, but almost no one thought he could hold the job. The consensus opinion was that Tony Pena would move into the saves slot in short order.

The D-Backs brain trust looks pretty smart these days, don’t they? Valverde has been okay for Houston, but nowhere near as dominant as he was last season. Pena has been rock solid setting up for the Diamondbacks. But Lyon has been out of this world! He garnered his second win of the year Thursday with two scoreless innings of work against the Mets, and he’s also registered 14 saves. Most impressive of all, Lyon is now on a run of 24 consecutive appearances without allowing a single run. When it comes to draft day closer value, those who tabbed Lyon are to be congratulated on making a great decision.

ONE FINAL HURDLE TO CLEAR

Enough already! What does Chris Iannetta have to do to nail down the starting catcher job with the Rockies? Colorado manager Clint Hurdle may be the only person left on the planet who can’t seem to comprehend that Iannetta needs to be starting most of the time, with Yorvit Torrealba either traded or relegated to backup duties.

I’m not buying any of the nonsense that Torrealba handles pitchers better, or that he calls a better game. If the Colorado pitchers were putting up impressive numbers, fine, I’d be more than willing to listen. But they’re not. I show the Rockies at 13-24 when Torrealba gets the nod . They’re 13-16 with Iannetta. Offensively, there’s no comparison. Iannetta is absolutely blowing away Torrealba in every category.

There’s no denying Torrealba did a super job last season for the Rockies, especially down the stretch and in the NL playoffs. But that was then, this is now. Iannetta is flat out better than Torrealba, and he deserves to be getting most of the action. It’s taking forever, but even Hurdle seems to be reluctantly arriving at this inevitability. And that makes Iannetta a dynamite pickup if he’s sitting on your league’s scrap heap. Once he does start getting the majority of starts, he’s almost a cinch to register Top Ten fantasy catcher numbers.

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Mountain West Tourney Preview

Call it déjà vu. For the second straight year, BYU enters the Mountain West Tournament as the top seed, with host team UNLV looming as a very dangerous #2. Runnin’ Rebel fans will definitely be hoping that history repeats itself as the tourney plays out, as UNLV captured last year’s event en route to a spectacular run to the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16.

Here’s a look at all nine Mountain West teams along with some thoughts as to what it will take for each of them to put together their dream weekend at the Thomas and Mack.

BYU (25-6, 14-2) has great numbers on defense and they own the best starting five in the league. Lee Cummard has had a tremendous campaign, and is my choice to earn Conference Player of the Year honors. Trent Plaisted is a very difficult matchup in the paint, and Sam Burgess has played superb ball down the stretch for the Cougars. This is not a really deep team, however, and they could be vulnerable to wearing down playing three games in three nights. BYU is also erratic at the charity stripe, although they did show improvement in that category as the season progressed. BYU has earned the top seed for the second straight year but they’ll again be hard pressed to win it all if forced to duel UNLV in the finale.

UNLV (23-7, 12-4) has been money in the bank at home, so their confidence level will be very high. The Rebels should benefit greatly from the time off between the end of the regular season and the start of the tournament. This team relies more on its conditioning than just about any team in the country. UNLV is among the nation’s leaders in turnover percentage. They’re #2 nationally defending the three-point shot, and fourth in the land in steal percentage. The Rebels are also in the top 10% nationally at the free throw line. Their lack of a depth is a major concern, but they only seem to show fatigue on the road. This team is a monster at the Mack, though, and I believe they’re the team to beat in this tournament.

New Mexico (24-7, 11-5) is extremely dangerous. The Lobos are the deepest team in the league, and they’re never out of a game thanks to their incredible marksmanship from beyond the arc. They’re knocking down a phenomenal 42.6% of their three’s, and that’s as good as it gets. Chad Toppert and Jamaal Smith are each capable of getting very hot and JR Giddens is the most talented player in the league. The Lobos didn’t get lucky with their tournament draw, though. Utah is a tough opening round matchup for them, and the Lobos will be underdogs if facing UNLV in the semis. Tough road to hoe for New Mexico, but they’re the obvious dark horse contender.

San Diego State (19-11, 9-7) can beat anyone on the right night, but the Aztecs have too many flaws to be a really serious threat to run the table. Losing Kyle Spain to suspension was a big blow, as the Aztecs are basically forced to play a seven-man rotation. Lorrenzo Wade is playing outstanding ball and freshmen Billy White and DJ Gay have been impressive. But the Aztecs are prone to being sloppy with the ball, particularly when Richie Williams is on the floor. This team appears to me to be a year away from being a major force in the Mountain West.

Air Force (16-13, 8-8) is saddled with a tournament history that’s hard to believe. The Falcons have yet to win even one Mountain West tournament game! That unfortunate streak is likely to continue this week. The Falcons have a real dynamo in Tim Anderson and Andrew Henke has come on very strong late in the season. But Air Force is sorely lacking in quality off the bench and even if they win their first-rounder, it’s hard to see them having much in the tank when forced to come right back the next night.

Utah (16-13, 7-9) is a bit of a puzzle. The Utes were coming together nicely, but suddenly regressed late in the season and come into the tournament on a down note. Utah has the #1 shots blocked percentage in the country and center Luke Nevill is impossible to handle when he’s on his game. But he’s inconsistent and remains prone to picking up silly fouls. The Utes will be trouble if long-range bomber Johnnie Bryant is on his game. But based on their late season performances, expecting Utah to post more than one upset seems unlikely.

TCU (14-15, 6-10) is almost certainly one and done. The Horned Frogs are basically devoid of offense with the suspension of Henry Salter. Opposing teams are making life difficult for Kevin Langford as they simply aren’t worried about anyone else on the TCU roster. This is one of the poorest shooting teams in the country, and they get the worst possible draw in facing UNLV in the quarterfinals.

Wyoming (12-17, 5-11) has been a big flop this season. Brandon Ewing remains a force to be reckoned with, but running mate Brad Jones had a disappointing campaign. The Cowboys showed a little late life, but they seem to lack chemistry and they’re also a below average team from long range. Stated simply, Wyoming looked better on paper than they did on the court all season, and I don’t see that changing this weekend.

Colorado State (6-24, 0-16) is beyond awful. Marcus Walker is a talented performer, Andre McFarland is a freshman with potential and big Stu Creason has occasional moments inside. But the Rams are completely devoid of depth and they’ve got walk-ons playing major minutes. If the Rams are playing on Thursday, that’s an upset. If they’re playing on Friday, it’ll mean BYU isn’t, and there’s practically zero chance of that happening.

I believe this year’s Mountain West Tournament will play very much according to form on the first two nights. BYU and UNLV loom as very easy quarterfinal winners. I can’t see Air Force beating San Diego State twice in five days (the Falcons nipped them last Saturday). The best chance of an upset on Thursday is Utah vs. New Mexico, but the Lobos are in much better form right now and I expect them to advance.

BYU has too much experience and savvy for San Diego State, and I look for the Cougars to win comfortably on Friday. The New Mexico-UNLV contest could be the best game of the entire tourney. It’s strength vs. strength, as the Lobos are the ultimate bombers but the Rebels are top notch at defending those three-point missiles. Very tough call, but the home court rules and UNLV gets past the Lobos.

That sets up another BYU-UNLV final on Saturday. I like the Rebels to outlast the Cougars. Neither team has much depth, and that actually could become an advantage for the more athletic Rebels. The biggest key of all is the locale. UNLV has a huge home court edge, and I believe it helps get the Runnin’ Rebels their second consecutive Mountain West Championship.

Make Way for the Rays?

Let's face it, it's been a struggle for the Tampa Bay franchise since their big league birth. The team formerly known as the Devil Rays has been a perennial failure. But as they begin the new season now simply known as the Rays, it appears as though the fortunes of this downtrodden franchise are about to change dramatically.

The Rays are about to start reaping the rewards of all those choice draft picks they've earned thanks to their ineptitude. The first dividend should take place this season. The starting pitching is not bad, the infield defense should be greatly improved, and there's reason to believe the TB offense will be pretty good. The biggest question would seem to be the bullpen, but if old pro Troy Percival's arm holds up, they'll be okay.

The Rays aren't all the way there just yet, and I'm not going to go nuts and project them as serious contenders for the AL East crown. Not unless the Red Sox and Yankees do the completely unexpected and plunge back to the pack. But I do believe the Rays are now good enough to put together their first ever winning season. That's significant, because the win total for this team is still well below the .500 plateau, and that means I've got a strong opinion on the Over for the '08 Rays. It's not as much of a cinch as last year's Under call on the White Sox, which I felt was one of the strongest futures I'd ever seen. But I do like this play quite a bit, and at least for the time being, I'd rate TB over the win total as the best early bet among this year's baseball futures. Go Rays!

College Football: The Formula Stays the Same

I've always maintained the same mindset when it comes to college football. Win the running game battle, win the bet. The numbers just don't lie. Over the past nine seasons, the straight up record of teams that outrushed their opponent by a margin of 2 to 1 or better is a mind boggling 2656-349. If that doesn't speak volumes to the guys coming up with the game plans, I don't know what does. It also translates to huge profits for thos able to isolate these 2/1 rushing winners. The record for all lined games within that same time frame is 2044-756. That's 73% against the spread!

Obviously, forecasting the teams that are going to accomplish this 2/1 margin in advance is the tough part. But it's the first determination I try to make each week when I do my college handicapping. The one thing I'll almost never do is risk a play on a team I know is unlikely to win the rushing stats. There are exceptions, of course, as a small handful of teams play a system that stresses almost all passing. For teams like Texas Tech and Hawaii, the numbers go out the window. But as a side note, I'll maintain that the gimmick offenses run by those schools have their limitations, and that's why programs like the Red Raiders almost never win when they have to play an elite opponent.

In any event, the opening week of the 2007 college football campaign was business as usual. Heading into the Labor Day twinbill, 2/1 rushing winners were a spectacular 44-2 SU and 29-5 ATS. The only outright losers were East Carolina and Minnesota. The Pirates were easy spread winners in their loss, however. SU winners that missed covering were Navy, Auburn, USC, Arkansas and the aforementioned Golden Gophers, and all those teams were laying big numbers.

Mariners Hopes Shattered in Tuesday Loss?

One game can make all the difference in the world sometimes, and I'll be very interested to see how the Mariners react to the crushing Tuesday loss to the Angels. Just in case you missed it, the M's exploded from the gate in this game. Hapless Ervin Santana was no match for the M's bats, and Seattle was holding a 5-0 lead with only one out in their half of the first inning. But from there it was all downhill. Dustin Mosely shut down the Mariners, and Seattle skipper John McLaren hesitated twice in making pitching changes later in the game, coming out a loser on both non-moves. Instead of being just two back of the Angels, the margin in the AL West is now four games. Seattle is still right in the thick of the Wild Card chase, but I wonder if this might be one of those losses that sticks with the team and propels them in the wrong direction.

Wednesday's game is one I won't be making a play on, but I'll sure be following it to see what happens. The Weaver-Hernandez matchup is compelling on its own, but with the Tuesday disaster, this becomes a virtual must-win scenario for the Mariners if they want to maintain hopes of winning the division. It's up to King Felix to deliver the goods for the M's here.

By the way, the comeback win for the Halos Tuesday was their 30th of the season and their 17th from the sixth inning on. That latter figure is the best in the bigs. Just another reason to fear this squad come post-season.

NFL PRESEASON WEEK 3: INJURIES AND MORE WORK FOR STARTERS

While Michael Vick is more likely to face a jury box than screaming NFL fans these days, what happened to Vick exactly four years ago is worth mentioning. It was in the 2003 preseason that Vick broke an ankle, pretty much ending his season and the Falcons.

It is a coach's worst nightmare to see any key player go down, but it's even worse if it happens in a meaningless exhibition game. That's one reason coaches keep preseason game plans simple and limit the work of starters. In Week 1, the Ravens blitzed the heck out of the Eagles, prompting Andy Reid to basically pack it in, pulling out his key players, absorbing a 29-3 shellacking and getting out of town.

Reid is no dummy. Staying healthy was more important and the Philly coaching staff was more than a little miffed at the Ravens for being so aggressive on defense. That aggressiveness may have caught up with the Ravens this past weekend. Ravens cornerback Samari Rolle and wide receiver Mark Clayton sprained ankles in the 13-12 loss to the Giants in what was a physical game.

It was worse for the Giants. Two members of the Giants' starting defense left in the second quarter. Safety Will Demps, who started all 16 games last season, dislocated an elbow and cornerback Sam Madison pulled a hamstring. New York also lost two offensive players. Wide receiver Michael Jennings had three catches for 31 yards before rupturing his Achilles tendon, and Steve Smith left with a concussion.

The Broncos also had a tough weekend, not only losing in Dallas but getting banged up. RB Travis Henry got a sprained left knee and backup RB Mike Bell strained his left hip. Henry was able to walk without help to the locker room, and the MRI revealed he should return before Bell. Tests on Bell's hip delivered news he will be out two weeks, the rest of the preseason.

All of which brings up Weeks 3 and 4 or the preseason. Week 3 is when, historically, teams will play their starters the most, usually about 3 quarters. It depends on how much work the coach thinks the team needs, plus injuries and other factors. The Saints and Steelers, for instance, are playing an extra preseason tilt because they opened the year with the Hall of Fame game. So this is their Week 4 while everyone else is in Week 3.

The Broncos' starters usually don't play in the fourth preseason game, so RB Henry may have taken his last exhibition carry this year. It's important to keep in mind other factors, too. Two of the most interesting this week will be the Jets and Seahawks. Both teams are off embarrassing losses and coaches Eric Mangini and Mike Holmgren were furious in press conferences. Mangini threatened an extra-hard week of practice. No doubt he is going to push the starters for a regular-season type effort.

The Jaguars have had a fascinating preseason because of a total change in offensive philosophy. Jack Del Rio has long been known as a conservative, run-first coach, but he's brought in OC Dirk Koetter, the former pass-happy coach at Boise State and Arizona State. Del Rio admitted they were going to be working on the passing game and both Jacksonville games have gone over the total.

The starting unit struggled this past weekend against Tampa Bay and they also picked up a few injuries. In what Del Rio called the "negative point" of the game, three Jaguars players left with injuries, in guard Chris Naeole (sprained a knee), safety Reggie Nelson, their top pick this year, sprained an ankle, and defensive lineman Tony McDaniel sprained a knee. The latter two will miss Thursday's game in Green Bay. Injuries, fired up coaches, and how much the starters play are all key factors to examine carefully in Week 3 of the NFL preseason.