Dave Cokin

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/16/09

I’m going to start including my free daily opinion on this page each day, except for weekends when I don’t write. On those days, you can get the free opinion on a recorded message at 1-888-567-7660. One quick disclaimer on these plays. They are not my premium selections, so don’t go haywire thinking they’re anything really strong. What they will be is sides where there’s an edge, albeit not a significant enough one for me to cal it a strong play. My best stuff is for sale, and I think it’s worth the investment for serious players. But for those looking for a little extra action, these free opinions will hopefully be of some small benefit.

Someone is going to win the AL Central Division this season. That’s a stroke of great fortune for whichever team comes out on top. Looking at the five teams in this sector, it’s now clearly evident that all are seriously flawed.

The Tigers have gotten yeoman work from Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson, and rookie Rick Porcello appears to be the real deal. But the back of the rotation is awful. Porcello could run out of gas once the innings pile up, and that could end up posing a real problem for this team down the road.

The Indians figure to hit pretty well as the season progresses, but their staff is a mess. Cliff Lee is a standout at the front end. But the balance of the starters are a mess. Carl Pavano has had some good stretches, but he’s an injury risk and he’s also a potential fatigue victim as the IP mount. The mere fact that the Indians started Toma Ohka over the weekend speaks volumes about the state of their starting pitching. Getting Jake Westbrook back healthy for the second half would be a huge plus just for his ability to eat innings, but that’s far from a sure thing.

The Royals are improving, but they just don’t have enough horses right now. Greinke is a stud, Gil Meche seems to be relocating his form, and while the back three of Hochevar, Davies and Bannister is hardly sensational, this could be a reasonably solid rotation. But the hitting just isn’t there yet, and I don’t see KC trading for a big bat.

The White Sox, on the other hand, might just try and swing a deal for some lumber, and if they do, they can win this division. Mark Buehrle is unspectacular, but totally reliable. Gavin Floyd has come on strong lately and can be very tough when he throws strikes. John Danks has been a far cry from where he was last season, but he’s capable of turning it around. The hole card could well be Jose Contreras, who’s healthy for the time being and has been awesome since coming off the DL. Contreras is not a good bet to last the season without something going wrong, but he’s entirely capable of running off a substantial stretch of very good outings in the meantime. The fifth spot is shaky, but that first four is a potential source of strength. The bullpen is fine, and if there’s a chance to win the division, GM Kenny Williams will try to get something done.

That leaves the Twins, who were my pre-season pick, and I’m still leaning their way. Even with Francisco Liriano not finding his pre-surgery form, this is a deep and solid rotation and they’ve got the finisher in Joe Nathan. The offense isn’t great overall but the Mauer-Morneau combo is deadly. Of course, the Twins are highly unlikely to try and help themselves at the trade deadline because that might mean spending a few dollars. That’s why they didn’t make the playoffs last season and it could be their undoing again this season.

Regardless of which team comes out on top, it’s safe to say they won’t be favored in their ALDS series. The entire AL Central is 34-59 vs. the entire AL East so far this season, with all five Central entries below .500.

Here’s the free opinion for Tuesday’s action. The Astros and Rangers begin their annual Interleague duel tonight, with Wandy Rodriguez hurling for Houston and Kevin Millwood on the hill for the Rangers. Rodriguez seems to be falling back into his old pattern of pitching well at home and getting raked on the road. Millwood is really thriving under the expert coaching of Mike Maddux. Millwood is pitching to contact more than he ever has in the past, and the result is lower per inning pitch counts and an ability to go deeper into games. Great job of an established veteran starter buying into a different philosophy, which is not always the case. The downside here is that the Astros are off two good road wins while Texas has lost two in a row at home, and that precludes me from taking a strong stance on the Rangers here. But I like the pitching matchup for Texas so I’ll lean that way for the Tuesday free opinion.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/15/09

Congrats to everyone who jumped in for my NCAA Baseball Tournament package. The Super Regionals were an extra inning loss away from a 100% weekend sweep, and the College World Series has gone according to plan so far, with top play wins on LSU and Arizona State to start things off. If you want to get the rest of the tournament, leave a note.

On the big league side, it’s been a very solid season to date and no reason to think there aren’t plenty of profits still to be had. Again, leave a message if you’re interested. Just to avoid any confusion, the personal service is geared toward fairly serious players. If you’re in the $50-100 range, it’s really not feasible. Ideally, you should be firing at least nickels.

Following a wild stretch in which a bevy of highly regarded prospects were called up for the first time, the past seven days were very quiet. But there was one notable recall to break down.

Aaron Poreda had yet to taste AAA, but the 2007 White Sox first round selection is now up with the big club, and had a very impressive debut. Poreda can really bring the heat. His fastball is generally entrenched in the mid-90’s, and on a couple of occasions he’s hit triple digits. Despite that, Poreda had not been a huge strikeout pitcher until this season. He racked up just 118 K’s in 161 IP last season, dividing his time between Hi-A and AA. This season, Poreda has been more dominant, with 63 whiffs in just 58.1 IP at AA Birmingham. He’s also sporting a 2.16 ERA despite winning only five of his nine decisions.

The White Sox really like Poreda, and refused to include him in any potential deals over the winter. They see him as a starter, although his big league baptismal fire will have him working out of the bullpen. Personally, I suspect that’s where Poreda’s future may be as well. He has the big fastball and his slider is coming along, but I am not sure Poreda has the arsenal to fit as a starter. His changeup is ordinary. While the strikeout numbers this year are impressive, it’s come at a cost. Poreda’s walk rate has gone up considerably. Also, he’s doing this in a second trip through AA and he’s in a pitcher’s park.

If Poreda is able to develop the slider to the point where it’s a real plus offering that he can command, then he’ll certainly have a chance to be a starter toward the front of the White Sox rotation. I like the fact the team’s management has opted to work him in relief for now, as he might excel working through opposing lineups just once.

From a fantasy standpoint, I don’t see Poreda have much use this season, so I’d avoid him in annual leagues. He’s clearly far more enticing in keepers, but be careful not to overspend those valuable FAAB dollars on Poreda. He certainly has a chance to be a star, but I don’t see him as a sure thing.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/12/09

The 64-team field has been whittled down to eight survivors and it’s on to Omaha for one of my favorite events on the annual sports calendar. The College World Series gets rolling on Saturday, and this year’s field has something for everyone. The established powerhouses like Texas, Arizona State, Cal State Fullerton and LSU are there. North Carolina is back again hoping to end the tough history ACC schools have had in the CWS. Arkansas has huge momentum after kayoing favored Florida State last weekend. And there’s the ultimate Cinderella, Southern Mississippi, on an incredible run that keeps extending the career of retiring coach Corky Palmer. Here’s my breakdown of the eight contenders, including my choice to win it all.

Arizona State: The Sun Devils are a serious threat. They have the ace pitcher in Mike Leake and a very potent offense. The Sun Devils can be shaky defensively at times, though, and poor fielding is the recipe for big trouble at the CWS.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks have certainly gotten hot at the right time, and they did a phenomenal job of manufacturing runs last weekend. But the Hogs don’t stack up well with the powerhouse teams in this field. They aren’t outstanding in any of the key stat categories, and I will be surprised if they aren’t one of the first teams out.

Cal State Fullerton: The Titans can do it all. They’ve got plenty of arms, play superb defense and their speed could be a factor here as well. Dave Serrano has one CWS under his belt and I don’t see any real weakness on this team.

LSU: The Tigers have the power bats to create big innings, and they’re solid enough in the pitching and defense categories. But I’m just not sold on the SEC this season and while I believe LSU will win at least once, I can’t see them having enough to run the table.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels have terrific pitching and the nation’s top college draftee in Dustin Ackley. On paper, they would seem to be as solid as any team in the field, but the ACC history at this event makes it tough to pick them.

Southern Mississippi: One of the best CWS stories ever as Corky Miller finally gets to the big event in his final go round with the Golden Eagles. I’ve been riding Southern Miss through the first two weekends, but I just can’t see it continuing here. They are clearly the weakest team still standing and I think they’re heading back to Hattiesburg 0-2.

Texas: The Longhorns have by far the most experienced coach in Augie Garrido, who’s hoping for his sixth CWS title. Texas has great pitching and they play superb defense. But the Longhorns offense has never really come together this season. Certainly in the hunt, but I suspect they get shut down by someone and come up short.

Virginia: The Cavaliers are dangerous. They seem to be peaking and they’re strong in all the key categories. But they’ve had a tough road to Omaha and this is the first ever CWS appearance for Virginia. That’s proven to be an impossible hurdle for maiden voyagers since the NCAA field expanded to 64 teams.

Summation: Wide open, as only Southern Miss and Arkansas would seem to be a bit overmatched. I eliminated Virginia on their lack of CWS experience and North Carolina because the ACC never wins this thing. I’m sticking with my thoughts that the SEC is down this year, so that crosses off LSU. Texas has the pitching, defense and coaching but their popgun offense is going to make it very tough for them to fight back if they fall behind.

That leaves Cal State Fullerton and Arizona State as my finalists. The Sun Devils have the best ace in the field in Mike Leake and they’re a little better offensively than the Titans. But Cal State Fullerton just doesn’t give away runs with their stellar defense and that makes it very difficult to play against them. In other words, I’m about 50/50 on these two teams. When it breaks down that close, I’ll almost always opt with the dominant pitcher, and in this case it’s Leake. Therefore, I’m siding with the Sun Devils to bring home the trophy.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/11/09

Grading a big league draft the day after the draft is pretty much a useless endeavor. Regardless of whether it’s the NBA, NFL or in this case, MLB, we obviously won’t have the actual results for years. But it’s still fun to offer the opinions, and then file them away in the time capsule for future reference.

So here’s one observer’s assessment of the big winners and losers in the 2009 Major League Baseball Draft. I’m only listing the teams I feel will be at either end of the spectrum. If you want an opinion on a team I didn’t list, leave a message and I’ll try and get you a grade for your team.

BIG WINNERS (not in any particular order)
Boston Red Sox: Yeah, I know, I’m a homer. That may be the case, but the fact is I like Reymond Fuentes, an exciting outfielder who’s related to Carlos Beltran. He’s not at that elite level, but Fuentes is an exciting package. I’m not sure about Alex Wilson, their second selection, but I thought Boston got a steal with David Renfroe in the third round, assuming they can sign him.

Detroit Tigers: I thought Jacob Turner should have been the fourth pick in the draft. He’s the best high school pitcher on this year’s board, and the Tigers got him at #9. He’ll cost, but the big investment is paying off for this team with Rick Porcello, and I believe they’ll be just as pleased with Turner.

Kansas City Royals: Love the Royals draft! Aaron Crow at #12 is outstanding, and Wil Myers at #91 is phenomenal. I thought Myers was a supplemental first rounder at worst. I also like Chris Dwyer at #122. Really nice job by KC.

Texas Rangers: Texas pitching has long been a problem, but that’s an issue that’s not far from being a bad memory. They already have a deep and talented system and adding Matt Purke and Tannor Scheppers fortifies the organizational chart even more. Scheppers at #44 is an insane steal if he stays healthy.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg is enough by himself. I also thought the Nats did well with the other first rounder, Drew Storen, who could be their closer by next season. And he’s already signed!

Arizona Diamondbacks: Six of the first 64 picks belonged to the D-Backs, and while I’m not wild about a couple of the choices, they almost have to hit paydirt with at least one or two.

Oakland A’s: Grant Green will be an everyday SS, and I thought Oakland stole Max Stassi in the fourth round.

Colorado Rockies: Best three-deep grab of any team. Tyler Matzek should have gone higher than #11. Tim Wheeler may not be the toolsiest prospect around, but he’s just plain solid. I knew the Rockies liked Rex Brothers and had speculated they might reach for him at #11. Getting him at #34 is a gift.

San Diego Padres: Kudos to the Padres for addressing their most compelling needs with Donavan Tate and Everett Williams, two very athletic OF’s with lots of upside. They could transform this team down the road and bring some real excitement to Petco.

San Francisco Giants: Another great pitching prospect in Zach Wheeler and I like the next three selections as well.

BIG LOSERS (again, not in any particular order)
Baltimore Orioles: I know Matt Hobgood has a big ceiling, but there were far surer bets at #5. I had Hobgood going much later in the first round, and actually thought even that might be a reach on my part.

New York Yankees: Slade Heathcott with their first pick was a surprise. Lots of talent, but lots of makeup questions as well. I like J.R. Murphy, but did the Yankees need another catching prospect? Even the most ardent Yankee fans have to be frustrated with this team’s consistent recent failures in the draft, and I think they did it again.

Cleveland Indians: I’m just not that high on Alex White. He’s been inconsistent and I’m not sure he’s a starting pitcher.

Los Angeles Angels: I really like Mike Trout, so I was iffy on including the Halos on this list. I included them because I thought they failed to make the most of owning five of the first 50 selections.

Atlanta Braves: I had Mike Minor going later, and thought he was a shaky pick there. He’s most often compared to fellow Vanderbilt lefty Jeremy Sowers. If that’s accurate, then there’s no way he’s the #7 overall pick. Plus, the Braves had no second rounder.

New York Mets: No first rounder, and second rounder Steve Matz is an injury risk with poor mechanics.

Philadelphia Phillies: No first rounder and I thought they should have gone for a tougher sign with big potential in the second round, rather than Kelly Dugan.

Chicago Cubs: Brett Jackson doesn’t wow me and I was surprised they went for D.J. LeMahieu with their second pick. Not an encouraging sign when a SS gets moved to 2B while he’s still in college.

Pittsburgh Pirates: They’re always on this list. Tony Sanchez at #4 is strictly for signability, there’s no way he should have gone that high. Second pick Victor Black was 0-4, 7.01 in the Cape Cod League last year. This team needs to be sold to an owner who will at least TRY to win.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Went the college route and took two players who had spotty campaigns in Aaron Miller and Blake Smith.

My biggest winners are the Nationals, Royals and Rockies. My biggest losers are the Pirates, Pirates and Pirates. Okay, that’s not very nice. I’ll put the Braves right behind the Bucs, followed by the Mets.

I’ve spent lots of time on the amateurs lately, and there’s one more piece coming. Tomorrow, it’s my College Worlds Series preview, and I’ll hope the results are as positive as last week’s Super Regionals proved to be.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/10/09

Today’s piece was supposed to be a review of the MLB Draft, with an emphasis on separating what I felt were the winners from the losers. Thanks to what I witnessed as far as the draft coverage on MLB Network is concerned, I’ll have to scratch that plan. Rather than handing out grades to the 30 teams, I’ve got just one and it’s for the network. A big ugly “Z” for zero.

I am absolutely and completely dumbfounded and disgusted by what I watched last night on MLB Network. In a word, the coverage sucked. I probably can’t express in words what a huge letdown this was, but I’ll try. In the interests of full disclosure, I’ll admit that I didn’t make it past the 90 minute mark. I just couldn’t take it any more at that point and simply gave up.

First off, let’s talk about the technical aspects of the broadcast. Talk about cheesy. The set looked like something out of the 1980’s. Bud Selig’s stage, from where he would announce each selection, wasn’t a stage. It was simply a platform. I can’t believe how cheap the whole setup looked. It was clearly being shot from a studio, and I can’t believe that’s how MLB wanted it to look to the viewers. There were virtually no graphics for any of the players and precious few highlights. Brutal.

Now for the really bad news. As pathetic as the production values were, they were the highlight of the show. The on-air talent was far worse.

There was no constructive analysis at any point during the 90 minutes I wasted viewing this disaster. Every single draft choice was a good one, every team absolutely nailed it right down the line. I’m serious. There was not even a scintilla of negative commentary among the shills MLB Network decided on using to cover this event. They made every player sound like a future Hall of Fame certainty, and no one questioned the decisions being made by any of the teams. In other words, this quartet of “experts” annihilated any credibility on their parts by simply giving a unanimous thumbs up to everyone.

I’m not saying the analysts had to crucify any of the teams for their decisions. But, as an example, when the Pirates OBVIOUSLY decided to go the cheap route with the fourth overall selection, BC catcher Tony Sanchez, there needed to be an exchange of thoughts if not an outright tirade from at least one of the panelists. Instead, there was a very brief reference to the Bucs making this choice to be sure of getting their player at slot price. From there, the talk simply degenerated into what a great pick this was by the Pirates. Really? Look, Sanchez could become the best catcher ever, but that still wouldn’t change the fact that he was projected by almost every legit analyst to be a fairly late first rounder, and here he was going fourth overall. That’s what known as a massive reach, and it had to be discussed. It wasn’t, and I knew right then and there that nothing of substance would be delivered by this useless collection of talking heads. Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the “audience”, which cheered each and every selection on cue. Apparently, the biggest investment MLB Network made in this entire fiasco was the “applause” sign.

Major League Baseball and their MLB Network flat out blew this opportunity at every level. They had a real chance to make a statement that they were serious about turning their annual draft day into a big time event, just as the NFL and NBA have brilliantly done. Instead, this was a totally minor league effort right down the line.

Here’s a suggestion for MLB Network. Next year, get the draft out of a studio and into a hotel. Get a real audience instead of a coached group of spectators who clearly weren’t actual baseball fans. Don’t buy the set at Home Depot and then hire their employees to build it. And, first and foremost, lose the damn shills masquerading as analysts and hire some guys who might be willing to express an actual opinion.

The only silver lining in this black cloud is that it can’t be any worse next year.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/9/09

The Stephen Strasburg Show, otherwise known as the Major League Baseball Draft, takes place today. Just like the more publicized NFL and NBA drafts, this is a huge crap shoot. But also just like the drafts in the other sports, part of the fun is guessing who ends up where. So here’s my rundown on today’s first round, along with a quick comment on the prospect or the team I’m projecting will draft him.

1. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: Duh.

2. Dustin Ackley, Mariners: Not a perfect fit for CF at Safeco, but he’s the surest position player in the draft.

3. Donavan Tate, Padres: All the tools. Will the Padres pay the freight?

4. Jacob Turner, Pirates: Best high school pitcher in the draft. Will cost plenty. And the Bucs don’t like spending bucks. So I’m probably wrong on this one.

5. Aaron Crow, Orioles: If the Pirates don’t take him, I think the O’s will. Although rumor mill says it’s Zack Wheeler.

6. Tyler Matzek, Giants: They need bats more, but I’ve been told they really like Matzek, and he’s from Capistrano Valley.

7. Zack Wheeler, Braves: Georgia high schooler, and the Braves love locals. If he’s on the board, I’m very confident he’s the pick.

8. Kyle Gibson, Reds: Has a forearm stress fracture, but that may enable Reds to get him at slot price.

9. Tanner Scheppers, Tigers: Motown reportedly covets Turner and Matzek, may have to gamble instead on hard throwing but health risk (?) Scheppers.

10. Chad Jenkins, Nationals: Signability is a must with this Nats pick, so Jenkins is the guy.

11. Rex Brothers, Rockies: I don’t think anyone else has him this high. But I know Rox want a power lefty, and they’ve been known to reach.

12. Alex White, Royals: Stock dropped late, but his Super Regional effort likely moved him back up the ladder.

13. Tim Wheeler, Athletics: Appears to me to be a Billy Beane type of pick. College guy, not overly toolsy but solid.

14. Shelby Miller, Rangers: Big, hard throwing Texan. I’m actually pretty confident on this call.

15. Grant Green, Indians: Had kind of a down year at USC, but he projects as a big league regular at SS.

16. Mike Leake, Diamondbacks: No secret D-Backs are sold on ASU’s star lefty.

17. Bobby Borchering, Diamondbacks: Only sure tool is power, but he’s got loads of it, and he’s supposedly signable at slot.

18. Chad James, Marlins: Big lefty fits Marlins draft profile, money will be the determining factor.

19. Matt Purke, Cardinals: Top 10 talent, but wants a boatload of bucks. That could scare off Redbirds, but word is they definitely want a lefty pitcher.

20. Mike Minor, Blue Jays: I don’t think he’s anything more than a back of the rotation lefty, but everyone seems to have him even higher than I do.

21. Jared Mitchell, Astros: Great athlete, but very raw. ‘Stros are going for offense, and Mitchell would likely be a quick sign.

22. Mat Hobgood, Twins: I was thinking Mike Trout here, but Twins went for OF’s each of the last two drafts, so I’ll guess power pitcher here.

23. Mike Trout, White Sox: Reports are Chisox want an athletic OF, so if Trout is still around, he should be the pick.

24. Eric Arnett, Angels: Stock has risen considerably this year, and Halos will take a pitcher with one of their back to back picks.

25. Everett Williams, Angels: I was torn between Matt Davidson and Williams, decided to opt for the athletic OF.

26. Garrett Gould, Brewers: Uptick in velocity has attracted scouts as he already owns a plus curve. Brewers need pitching prospects.

27. Max Stassi, Mariners: I’m pretty sure Mariners will take a catcher here, and Stassi’s power is a selling point.

28. Tony Sanchez, Red Sox: Bosox will gladly grab BC receiver, but if a big bonus demand star drops because of money concerns, Red Sox won’t back away.

29. David Renfroe, Yankees: Same story as Red Sox, Yanks will snatch up lingering big bonus potential studs. Renfroe has all the tools and NYY needs to draft a future replacement for Jeter.

30. Wil Myers, Rays: Highest ceiling of any catcher in the draft, but scouts are divided as to whether he can actually play that position. But his bat alone gets him into the first round.

31. Jiovanni Mier, Cubs: Like Red Sox and Yankees, Cubs are hoping to land a bigger fish who drops due to big dollar demands. Mier has speed and a big league SS glove, bat is a big question.

32. A.J. Pollock, Rockies: Fits the Rockies profile, college kid, great makeup, and his stock rose this season.

I’ll have some thoughts on what actually took place in the draft in tomorrow’s blog.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/8/09

The waiting finally ended for one of the game’s most exciting pitching prospects, and that’s the headliner for this week’s rundown of top rookie recalls.

The Atlanta Braves caught a little heat when they didn’t bring Tommy Hanson up to start the season. They got a little more criticism, and I’d say it was justified when they opted to send out Jo Jo Reyes for several starts rather than recall Hanson. There were raised eyebrows everywhere when they jumped Kris Medlen to the big club ahead of Hanson, although at least that move was somewhat justified with Medlen tearing it up at Gwinnett. But the waiting finally came to an end this week as the Braves decided the timing was right and Tommy Hanson is now officially a major league pitcher.

Hanson’s debut probably was fine, even though his pitching line wasn’t very attractive. He gave up three homers and seven runs, one of them unearned, in six innings of work. But he also allowed only six hits and one walk while notching five K’s, and you have to figure there were some butterflies pitching for the very first time in front of an excited crowd in Atlanta.

There doesn’t seem to be much doubt that Hanson is a future staff ace. He’s got the arsenal, that’s for sure. Mid-90’s fastball with lots of movement, good curve, improving changeup. His slider is just plain nasty, and the improvement over the past year with that pitch is why Hanson suddenly vaulted from a mid-level prospect to what the Braves are hoping will be their next John Smoltz. Whether he can reach that zenith is something we’ll have to debate down the road. But Hanson certainly looks like a legit top of the rotation starter with a very high ceiling.

The waiting also finally ended for Andrew McCutchen, and there won’t be any feeling out process for this rookie. Thanks to the inane Nate McLouth deal with the Braves, McCutchen is now the starting CF for the Bucs and they’re hoping he’ll be their leadoff hitter for the next three years. I know the Pirates are saying the next ten years, but actually it’s only three. If he turns out to be a good player, which I think he will, the Pirates will then trade him for some more fringy prospects and explain to their 18 remaining fans that they’re building for the future.

McCutchen appears to be a legit four-tool star. He doesn’t have much power, and I really don’t see that aspect of his game developing to any great extent. But he does most everything else pretty well and he’s a very exciting player. I don’t rate him quite as high as some analysts as I’m not sure he’ll be a big BA type, but even if he never becomes an All Star, he’s got a good chance to be a really solid leadoff hitter for many years.

Gordon Beckham didn’t figure to spend much time in the minors when the White Sox drafted him in last year’s first round. That turned out to be an accurate assessment, as Beckham excelled in brief stops at three levels before getting the call to join the big club. He’s still looking for that first big league hit, but there don’t seem to be any worries about that part of his game. Beckham is playing 3B for now with the White Sox, although I would expect his future to be at 2B. I’m not sure whether Beckham sticks with the big club this time around, as he could probably use a little more seasoning at AAA where he had only 29 AB, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t start on Opening Day next season.

Vin Mazzaro is enjoying one of those absolute dream debuts for the Oakland A’s. Mazzaro has made two starts, worked 13.2 IP and still hasn’t allowed a single run. Mazzaro has shot up the Oakland prospect chart over the last season. His first two campaigns after getting drafted in the third round of the 2005 draft were forgettable. But Mazzaro put it together last year at Midland, capturing Texas League Pitcher of the Year honors while going 12-3. He struggled some at the end of the season with AAA Sacramento, but solved that level this season and now he’s off to a sensational start with the big club. I haven’t seen Mazzaro pitch yet, but off the scouting reports, he’s more than a fringe prospect. Mazzaro doesn’t have dominating stuff but now that he’s figured out how to command his pitches, projecting him as a solid mid-rotation type doesn’t seem outlandish.

Matt Maloney also had a sharp debut this week, as the Reds rookie southpaw had a nice opening effort against the Cubs. Maloney’s stuff looks pretty ordinary, so he’ll have to fit the crafty southpaw mode to succeed in the majors. He’s got four pitches he can throw for strikes and locating them will be the determining factor as to whether Maloney can stick. He’s a flyball pitcher and has been susceptible to home runs, which is cause for concern with G.A.B. as his home park. The Reds have a very good nucleus of young starting pitching, so my guess is that Maloney settles into a bullpen role of some type. At best, he’s likely a back of the rotation starter.

Jess Todd was progressing well as a starter in the Cardinals organization, but he’s suddenly exploded after being moved to the bullpen. Todd racked up 11 saves and whiffed 32 batters in only 24.1 IP at AAA before getting called up way ahead of whatever schedule he may have been on as a starter. I really like this move by St. Louis. Todd may have been good enough to become a big league starter, but he really seems like a prototype closer in terms of his approach. Todd is basically always on the attack and had no desire to nibble as a starter. Here’s the ball, try and hit it. He either doesn’t have a changeup or just doesn’t want to throw it. Todd’s big league debut was less than sensational, but I think he will get a real shot to stick with the Cards right now. I think he’s already moved ahead of Chris Perez and I’d rate Todd as a better prospect than Jason Motte. He could well be closing for the Cards by next season.

Will Venable is the newest San Diego Padre, and the Friar are hoping the power Venable has displayed in the minors this season turns out to be for real. Venable belted 12 long balls at Portland, so despite only hitting .260, the power-starved Padres decided to give him a shot with the big club. Venable’s ceiling is probably a little limited. He’s already 26, having garnered a great degree at Princeton, where he starred in both baseball and basketball. Venable is the son of a big leaguer and his smarts will help him exceed his natural talent. I would not be surprised if Venable struggles at first, but his pedigree and brains suggest that if the Padres give him a legit chance, he can become a serviceable corner outfielder. Considering their current OF situation, there’s no reason for the Padres not to give Venable every chance to nail down a regular job.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/5/09

It’s College Baseball’s version of the Sweet 16 as the Super Regionals get underway today. I’ll run through my choices to win each of them, with a trip to Omaha for the College World Series the reward for the eight survivors.

Arkansas @ Florida State: I really don’t think there’s much to choose between these two teams in terms of talent, but the site is huge. There may not be a bigger home field advantage in college baseball than Tallahassee and that gets me on the Seminoles to get to the CWS. But I do think the Hogs can give them a battle. Florida State in three games.

Virginia @ Mississippi: The Cavaliers are blazing hot. They beat Stephen Strasburg to open the tournament and then proceeded to eliminate favored UC Irvine. As I noted last week, this Virginia team can really hit and they’re on a huge roll. Ole Miss got yeoman work from their ace on two days rest to survive the Regional, but fatigue often shows up in the next start. I think Virginia is the better team, and I believe they will sweep the Rebels even though this is in Oxford.

Rice @ LSU: The Owls are another team that needed heroics from their ace on two days rest, and I think they get blown out here. LSU has better starting pitching and superior bullpen, they’re at home and they were sharp last weekend, while Rice had a very difficult Regional. I’ll be surprised if LSU doesn’t sweep this set.

Louisville @ Cal State Fullerton: The Titans are monster favorites to kayo the Cardinals and I can’t find any reason to disagree. Fullerton is clearly one of the two or three best teams in the country, they’re at home and Louisville is just not at their level. Lefty Justin Marks may be good enough to pitch the Cardinals to an upset win in one game, but I’m still siding with Fullerton to sweep.

East Carolina @ North Carolina: I think the Tar Heels can be had, but they drew the right opponent here. The Pirates are obviously a solid team, but they won’t enjoy their sizable home field edge playing at Chapel Hill. North Carolina has much better pitching and East Carolina’s big offense doesn’t play as well on the road, especially in a park where pitching rules. But ECU has a hot lefty that can stifle the Tar Heels lineup for one game, so I’ll call it North Carolina in three.

Southern Mississippi @ Florida: I mentioned last week that the Golden Eagles are playing with a purpose as they want to keep winning for retiring coach Corky Palmer. Florida is very young and I thought they might be vulnerable last week, and I mistakenly tabbed Miami knock off the Gators. Florida got lucky in their opening round game last week, and while they were impressive in beating the ‘Canes, I wonder about their maturity and that could be the intangible factor here. I’ll take a chance and go with underdog Southern Mississippi to win in three games.

TCU @ Texas: Tough break for Jim Schlossnagel’s Horned Frogs as they get stuck on the road against the Longhorns. But could Texas be a bit vulnerable after the wild goings on in the regionals? They had that incredible marathon with Boston College and then needed a spectacular rally to edge past Army to close out the proceedings. I really want to pick TCU here, but I just keep coming back to Texas having the edge on the mound. Could be a great set, lean to the Longhorns in three games.

Clemson @ Arizona State: Mike Leake will be a heavy favorite to win the opener on Saturday, and I don’t see Clemson getting to him. The Sun Devils are going to be a major threat to win it all because of their stud hurler and while Clemson has a fine team, ASU at home looks really solid to me this weekend. Arizona State in two games.

Enjoy the weekend, back on Monday with the prospects report.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/4/09

Here’s a suggestion for anyone who might have occasion to be anywhere in the vicinity of the home offices of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wear galoshes. You’ll most assuredly need them to make your way through all that manure Pirates management continues to spread.

Once again, the Pirates have decided to dump their best player in return for prospects. They did it last season with Jason Bay, landing an assortment of younger players with what I’d call limited at best ceilings. Of course, the Bucs tried to spin that deal as one they needed to make to build their organization. I called b.s. on that one, because Andy LaRoche was the only player they received in the deal that’s even close to blue chip level, and I’m not sold on him ever becoming a star. As for the others, Brandon Moss is a fourth OF, Bryan Morris is a 2006 first round Dodgers selection who has spent more time on the DL than on the field, and Craig Hansen is a former first rounder who just isn’t all that good. I thought it was a terrible deal for the Pirates.

The tradition continued on Wednesday, as the Bucs once again dealt away one of their few really good players. Nate McLouth probably played a little over his head last year, but he’s a very solid guy. Good power, lots of speed, excellent defense. Plus, McLouth was signed through 2011 at an absolute bargain price of $15.75 million. That’s a pittance for a player of his caliber, and the Pirates also held an option on McLouth for 2012. Considering the price, McLouth should have been one of the last players the Pirates would consider dealing. But hey, if they could land a really big time prospect and some good organizational players in a swap, then I’d have no complaints. But they did not accomplish that feat, and I’m left with drawing one of two conclusions. One is that even though they’re not paying McLouth big bucks, the three guys they got from the Braves will cost even less. The other possibility is that they’re simply inept. Or maybe it’s a combination of those two variables.

Here’s the rundown on what Atlanta had to give up to solve their CF dilemma. Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke. Hernandez is the most highly regarded of the trio. Hernandez projects as a leadoff hitter with good speed, although he has a long way to go before he’s ready. He’s hitting well at AA Mississippi, particularly for a kid who’s just 21. His BB rate is still way too low and his stolen base success rate is not so hot. But again, he’s very young and appears to have a good future. Only one problem. The Pirates just called up Andrew McCutchen, who like Hernandez, is a center fielder who projects as a leadoff hitter. So what’s the point of going after another player who’s similar to McCutchen, but probably not as good potentially. I don’t get it.

As for the two pitching prospects, Charlie Morton was with the Braves for much of the 2008 season and got lit up. He’s been very good for AAA Gwinnett so far this season, but Morton is not regarded as a top flight prospect and doesn’t figure as anything more than a back of the rotation type big leaguer. The Bucs already have an abundance of those types. Maybe they’re trying to corner the market on #5 starters.

Locke was a second rounder in 2006 and while he’s still very young at just 21, his progress has been slow and he’s hardly setting the minors on fire. Locke was only 5-12 last season at Low-A Rome, and while the southpaw wasn’t quite as bad as that ledger might indicate, he wasn’t brilliant, either. He’s been just plain bad so far this year at Hi-A Myrtle Beach. 1-4, 5.52 and far too many walks. Maybe Locke gets it together and becomes the mid-rotation starter he was projected as being coming out of high school, but the early returns are not all that encouraging.

Neil Huntington and the Pirates brass can try and sell analysts and fans all they want that this was another move to try and bolster the organization. Sorry, Neil, I’m not biting on that bait. This deal was a steal for the Atlanta Braves and one more reason the Pirates are doomed to maintain their residence at the bottom of the NL Central.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/3/09

There’s no rational explanation for why this keeps happening, but for whatever reason it seems like Josh Hamilton and Edinson Volquez are joined at the hip as far as their baseball fortunes are concerned.

Hamilton and Volquez were the principals in a December 2007 deal, and the similarities between the two players ever since that deal have been downright eerie at times. They were both huge stories in 2008, especially prior to the All-Star break. Hamilton went deep 21 times with 95 RBI heading into the break and then put on one of the most remarkable displays of power the world will ever see in the Home Run Derby (or whatever MLB calls it). His story of a rebound from serious drug addiction has already captured the sports world’s attention, and the performance at Yankee Stadium catapulted Hamilton to the top of the celebrity marquee. Volquez didn’t get the same notice, but the fact is that the Reds righty was the best pitcher in baseball for the first half of the 2008 campaign. He stood 12-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break and was simply dominating hitters with his nasty stuff.

Neither guy had a great All-Star game. Hamilton was probably worn out from the dazzling display the prior night and Volquez ended up having a rough game. Neither player was able to perform at quite the same level down the stretch. Hamilton wore down a bit physically and while his BA held pretty firm, his power and production dipped after the break. Volquez managed to go 5-3 post-break but his ERA was much heftier at 4.60 and he didn’t overmatch hitters like he did in the first half of the season.

As for 2009, it’s been disappointing for both Hamilton and Volquez. The Reds righty started slowly and could not find the strike zone, then got very hot for a few games, but his back flared up and that stuffed the momentum Volquez was gaining. Hamilton’s season has been ever worse. In fact, considering how well the Rangers have played, it’s shocking to note that they’ve done so with very little contribution from Hamilton. His .240/.290/.456/.746 stat line speaks volumes about how far off his game he’s been, and it’s even more disconcerting when factoring in how many scoring opportunities Hamilton has had hitting behind Ian Kinsler and Michael Young.

The weird coincidences continued last night. Hamilton was placed on the DL by the Rangers with what is being called an abdominal strain, but it’s one that could require surgery and he could be out for months if that’s the case. Volquez had just returned from a DL stint as a result of the back issues. He left his return start after only one inning after experiencing numbness in his fingers, and it’s now been determined he’s got elbow tendinitis. There’s no timetable yet on when Volquez will be available, but the likelihood is that he’s gone till at least the break.

File this whole deal under the truth is stranger than fiction file. But hopefully, the similarities will continue in a far more positive fashion later this season. Both Hamilton and Volquez are fabulous talents and every baseball fan should be hoping they both make speedy recoveries and are back at their best before long.