Dave Cokin

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/14/09

Anytime there’s an athlete in his mid-40’s still performing at a high level in a big league team sport, it’s pretty big news. When that player also happens to be among the most respected individuals in his chosen field of endeavor, the story gets even better. Jamie Moyer certainly fit that bill coming into this spring following his huge contributions to the Phillies as they won the 2008 World Series, so it was no surprise when Moyer became the focus of a seemingly endless number of uplifting articles and columns this spring. And make no mistake, it was all deserved. In addition to having a tremendous campaign at the age of 45, Moyer is one of the good guys. There’s no cloud of suspicion surrounding the veteran lefty, he’s always been heavily involved in community efforts and charitable ventures and is basically everything we’d all like to see in a star athlete.

Now for the bad news. After an outstanding 2008 performance at the age of 45, Jamie Moyer is getting pounded at the age of 46. The overall numbers following yesterday’s lopsided loss to the Dodgers are really bad. In 35.1 IP, Moyer has allowed 52 hits and 32 runs. His ratios are down from where they normally have been and he’s given up a whopping 11 home runs already. That’s a rough start for anyone, but for a pitcher pushing the age envelope as Moyer is, it’s even more alarming.

Moyer has had a couple of other years where it looked as though the sand had run out of the hourglass. He was mostly horrendous in 2004 while still with the Mariners. Moyer was just 7-13 that season, his ERA was a bloated 5.21 and he surrendered an astounding 44 HR. The general consensus was that he was shot, but Moyer not only persevered, he flourished in a strong 2005 comeback campaign, fashioning a strong 13-7 slate with very acceptable numbers right down the line.

2006 was not a great year for Moyer, either, as he again gave up too many homers and ended up posting a 5.01 ERA. But those numbers were a bit skewed, as Moyer took a beating in his bad games, but still managed to be on his game often enough to close the season at a very respectable 14-12.

This season, however, has been a different story. Moyer has just one quality start in his seven appearances. His walk rate, while not terrible, is up a bit from the norm. That’s not good for anyone, but it’s amplified for someone like Moyer who simply has to command his soft stuff to survive. The 11 homers permitted in such a small number of innings is the biggest concern. 35 IP and 11 HR is a very bad indicator. Maybe it’s just a blip for the ultimate crafty southpaw, but the form charts indicate there’s a good chance that’s not the case, especially with the age being a factor that simply cannot be dismissed.

The Phillies are in a tough spot with Moyer. He’s been so good for so long there’s naturally going to be a reluctance to pull him from the starting rotation. I don’t by any means disagree with that thought process. Moyer has earned a long leash. Nevertheless, I would think that Moyer’s next two starts are going to be closely monitored. He’s scheduled to work at Cincinnati next Tuesday and would then take on the Yankees the following Sunday. I think Moyer is going to have to show some improvement or manager Charlie Manuel will have no choice and will have to give strong consideration to removing Moyer from his regular turn.

As for speculating on Moyer’s future, I would not be surprised at all if he simply walked away from the millions he’s got coming on his current contract that runs through next season. I don’t get the vibe that they’d have to tear the uniform off Moyer is the pitcher himself feels he’s no longer a positive contributor to his team.

Hopefully, all this is merely premature conjecture. Maybe it turns out to be a blip and the Jamie Moyer we’ve grown used to seeing will be back to baffling hitters half his age with his assortment of changeups. But the realist in me has a feeling that’s not the case. It’s one time where I definitely am hoping to be completely wrong in my assessment.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/13/09

There have been a handful of great brother pitching combos throughout the history of baseball. Dizzy and Daffy Dean immediately come to mind, as do the Niekros, Phil and Joe. Gaylord and Jim Perry are right there as well. Each of those sets of brothers featured a stud that made it all the way to the Hall of Fame and the less heralded family member was no slouch, either.

The best pitcher of the past 25 years, in my opinion, is part of a big league brother act as well. That is, of course, Greg Maddux, who should be elected to the Hall of Fame unanimously in his first year of eligibility. That won’t happen, because some lamebrain will leave Maddux off the ballot for the most illogical reason possible. I’ll save that for another day, probably right around the date where this year’s new members are inducted at Cooperstown.

The other Maddux brother didn’t enjoy the same level of success as a big league hurler as did the other second fiddles. Mike Maddux spent 15 seasons in the bigs, pitching for ten teams, and compiled a respectable 39-37 record, working mostly out of the bullpen. But it’s become crystal clear that Mike’s true calling is in teaching the art of pitching to others.

Mike Maddux may be on his way to fashioning a Hall of Fame level career as a pitching coach. What Maddux did in Milwaukee was mighty impressive. What he’s already accomplishing with the Texas Rangers boggles the mind. The Rangers are sitting atop the AL West, and while their offense rightfully gets a great deal of attention, the Rangers are in the penthouse right now because of their pitching. That is quite astounding when one considers just how inept this staff has been for the last several seasons. I know Rangers owner Tom Hicks had to shell out some big bucks to lure Maddux south from Milwaukee. Turns out Hicks got himself a real bargain this time.

I’m fully aware the season is still very young, and it’s far too early for even the most optimistic Texas fan to start planning for the post season. But there’s just no denying that this pitching staff has a much more confident approach under Maddux and the results have been, well, kind of spectacular.

Kevin Millwood is only 3-3, but he’s in superior form. He’s no longer trying to strike everyone out and as a result he’s working deeper into games. All his key numbers are dramatically improved from where they’ve been in his prior three campaigns in Texas. Another veteran, Vicente Padilla, has gotten red hot. Padilla has surrendered a grand total of two hits and one earned run in his last two starts.

The younger members of the staff are flourishing as well. Matt Harrison has suddenly gone from a lefty with so-so stuff and lack of command to a consistent winner. He’s picked up the W in his last three starts, and most impressively, he has walked only two batters in those appearances, am astonishing departure from his prior form. Scott Feldman had never looked like anything more than a fringe big leaguer, but he’s now on a run of four straight very solid efforts. Brandon McCarthy is still erratic and needs to show he can stay healthy. But the once hyped White Sox prospect has racked up three quality starts already. While McCarthy may never be the star some envisioned him becoming, he’s now at least evolving into a decent back of the rotation option.

In the bullpen, Frank Francisco has simply been the best closer in the game for the first six weeks of the season. He’s got a touch of tendinitis and will have to rest for a few days, but should be back very soon. All Francisco has done so far this year is convert every save opportunity and he’s sporting a 0.00 ERA. Rookie Derek Holland was supposed to hone his skills at AAA this season. The Rangers decided it would be a better idea to let him work out of the pen and study under Maddux and the early results have been very positive. Holland earned his first big league win on Tuesday night.

Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan also rates a good deal of credit, as his progressive philosophies are definitely a part of the vast improvement not only on this staff, but throughout the entire organization. But the major props have to go to Mike Maddux, who is once again proving he can take an ordinary or worse staff and make them respectable, and maybe a whole lot more.

The Angels are still the favorites in the AL West. But we’re almost to the quarter pole and it’s the Rangers peering down from the top spot in the division. And with Mike Maddux pushing the pitching buttons for the Rangers, I’m not about to count them out!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/12/09

Another day, another breaking story regarding steroid use. The newest installment in this ongoing saga comes courtesy of ex-big leaguer Lou Merloni. Appearing on Comcast’s “The Baseball Show” on Saturday, Merloni informed listeners that at various times during his tenure with the Red Sox (1998-2003) there were meetings held where doctors would talk with the team about steroid use. Most of the time, they talked about the game’s policy on drugs (actually, there basically wasn’t any at the time at the big league, although there was testing in the minors). The doctors would also discuss the dangers of doing ‘roids.

But the bombshell from Merloni was in regards to one specific meeting where the doctor basically extolled the virtues of steroid use and provided instruction on how to use the drugs properly. Here are some of the verbatim quotes from Merloni that aired on the Saturday show.

“No. He spins it and says, ‘You know what, if you take steroids and sit on the couch all winter long, you can actually get stronger than someone who works out clean. If you’re going to take steroids, one cycle won’t hurt you; abusing steroids, it will.’

“He sat there for one hour and told us how to properly use steroids while I’m with the Boston Red Sox, sitting there with the rest of the organization, and after this, I said, ‘What the heck was that?’

“And everybody on the team was like, ‘What was that?’ And the response we got was, ‘Well, we know guys are taking it, so we want to make sure they’re taking it the right way.’ Where did that come from? That didn’t come from the Players Association.”

Merloni could not remember the precise date or the name of the doctor, but he was crystal clear on the details. He did state that it was not a regular team physician. Merloni has also added that, to his knowledge, the organization never encouraged players to take steroids. But what Merloni did say was that it was “like teaching your teenage daughter about sex education.The organization acknowledged that there were likely players using steroids and basically ‘if you’re gonna use them this is how you use them so you don’t abuse them.’”

Almost needless to say, there was an immediate denial issued by one of the suits. Former Red Sox GM Dan Duquette claimed that the team would never do such a thing. Here’s what Duquette had to say to the Boston Globe.

“It’s ridiculous. It’s totally unfounded,” said Duquette. “Who was the doctor? Tell me who the doctor is? If there was such a doctor he wasn’t in the employ of the Red Sox. We brought in doctors to educate the players on the major league drug policy at the time at the recommendation of major league baseball. This is so ridiculous I hate to even respond to it.”

That’s a pretty defensive stance being taken by Duquette, particularly since Merloni stated that it was NOT a regular team physician. Quite frankly, in light of what we now know was taking place in that time frame, Duquette’s abject denial of any such possibility is patently absurd. This is not to suggest that Merloni is speaking the gospel truth. It was a long time ago and he could be confused about the circumstances under which this apparent meeting took place. But for Duquette to act like Merloni is just making the whole thing up is just plain stupid. There’s no proof either way. But in light of all the information that’s been assembled recently, I find it extremely difficult to simply dismiss what Merloni is claiming. And when one of the execs does exactly that, well, let’s just say that I find it easier to believe the player than the suit.

More fascinating to me than this story is the response of the fans. The Boston Globe feedback on this story is overwhelmingly anti-Merloni. The feedback is mostly idiotic, with the overriding sentiment being that he’s making this up to somehow get some attention for himself. These are undoubtedly the same fans who, if they’re in attendance for the next Red Sox-Yankees game at Fenway, would be booing Alex Rodriguez until their lungs blew out. In other words, if it happened somewhere else, it must be true, but that could never have happened here and therefore must be false. It’s the Barry Bonds syndrome. The whole country is pretty well convinced Bonds was ‘roided to the gills, with the exception of San Francisco, where they still love the guy and wish the Giants would resign him. The ardent anti-Bonds faction would certainly include Boston’s baseball-obsessed fans. But nothing so unseemly could ever take place with our beloved Red Sox, right? Uh, yeah, it could and in fact I’m sure it did. Just like it did to some extent everywhere else. The righteous indignation from Red Sox Nation is a joke. The lack of any semblance of objectivity renders the comments meaningless. Note that I am a card-carrying member of Red Sox Nation. I’m now hoping they can find a way to divide the Nation into two groups. Those with functioning brains and those without. I will always love the Bosox, but I’m not about to play the role of a moron in denial on this issue.

Meanwhile, Merloni has been busy backpedaling since Saturday, and I’m sure he’s getting some heat from some ex-teammates who wish he’d kept quiet. He might also be worried about his job. Sorry, Lou, but there’s really no way to backtrack at this point. You shot from the hip and once the bullets leave the chamber, there’s no way to retrieve them.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/11/09

Mondays will be dedicated to capsule reports on recent big league recalls, and there are several players to take a look at this week. Three high-end prospects stand out from the rest, so I’ll focus on that trio but won’t ignore the others.

Chris Coghlan has been promoted to the Marlins thanks to a huge start at AAA New Orleans. Coghlan was just mashing with the Zephyrs, hitting .344 with three HR and nine SB. The speed is no surprise, but the improved power is probably what really accelerated Coghlan’s ascension to the big club. He’s an intriguing prospect, with the ability to play both 2B and 3B along with LF. That versatility will serve the 36th overall 2006 draftee well. Given the Marlins dependence on youth, I thought he might make the team out of spring training, but Coghlan ended up at New Orleans as Emilio Bonifacio got off to a shocking start. But Coghlan is the much better player, and I would expect him to get a strong opportunity to nail down a starting role.

Jonathon Niese is back up with the Mets, and the lefty did very well in his first ‘09 big league start. Baseball America listed Niese as the #3 prospect in the Mets organization this spring, so he’s clearly got potential, but I’m not sure he’s ready for the majors just yet, despite his solid effort against the Pirates on Friday. Niese has a good sinking fastball, but his secondary pitches still need work. He also seems to have a little hitch in his delivery at times, where he bends his back more than he ought to, and this could lead to problems repeating his pitches. I would call Niese a work in progress at this point, but it looks as though he’ll get a chance to stick in the Mets rotation.

Daniel Bard has been called up by the Red Sox. Whether this is a cup of coffee or a permanent recall remains to be seen, but Bard is a very high end bullpen prospect. Bard was a first round supplemental in ‘06, and was an utter disaster as a starter in the low minors. But when the Red Sox moved him to the pen, Bard took off. He regularly throws in the high 90’s and occasionally hits triple digits. He’s got a nasty sink to the heater as well. Bard also throws a slider, but it’s not a great pitch yet and is used more as a setup pitch than anything else. Bard doesn’t have a changeup right now. He’s good enough to get by with the one dominant pitch right now, as he’s simply been overmatching minor league competition. Bard is obviously not going to be closing in Boston with Papelbon on the scene, but that’s his future. I wonder if the Red Sox may be showcasing Bard as a prelude to offering him as trade bait for a big time rental come deadline time.

Also getting a look are Shane Robinson, Xavier Paul, Randy Wells, Joaquin Arias, Jeff Gray and Jose Ascanio.

Robinson will serve as a backup OF for St Louis while Rick Ankiel recovers from that frightening collision with the wall that took place last week. Robinson is a fourth OF type with good speed. He’s done well at AAA this season after being a bit overmatched at that level last season.

Paul is an overachiever who doesn’t appear to have any standout tools, but is just a solid player. He’s enhanced his big league value by dramatically increasing his steals. Paul is not rated by anyone as a high end prospect, but he keeps finding ways to succeed at each progressive level. So although he profiles as a backup, he just might be one of those guys who continues to outperform the scouting reports and eventually earns a regular gig.

Wells is a converted catcher who has already gone much farther than expected. He was a 38th round draft choice in 2002. He didn’t hit at all and moved from behind the dish to the mound after not pitching in high school or junior college. His story is therefore kind of amazing. Wells got a cup of coffee in the bigs last season and did a good job in his first start with the Cubs last Friday. His repertoire is mostly a fastball and slider with an occasional changeup. Wells was pitching well at AAA Iowa, but it should be noted that he was there for the third straight season and wasn’t anything special in ‘07 or ‘08. I can’t see Wells being good enough to stay in a big league rotation, but he might stick as a long reliever.

Joaquin Arias is likely up for just a few days with the Rangers, and will probably head back down when Josh Hamilton returns in a couple days. Arias has been up with the big club previously and in fact owns a .314 BA in 121 AB. He’s had injury problems but still profiles as a big league semi-regular somewhere down the road. But it’s not likely to be in Texas with Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus locking down the middle infield spots. By the way, Arias was the player to be named later in the huge Arod-Soriano deal a few years ago.

Gray is a temp addition to the Oakland bullpen. He’s rated as a fringe prospect at best, and his minor league numbers have been pedestrian.

Ascanio has been up in the past and has shown glimpses of potential, but he’s been unable to maintain any consistency. Interestingly, the Cubs decided to move him into the Iowa rotation this season. Ascanio hasn’t been working deep into games, but he’s 1-1, with an eye-popping 1.01 ERA, so the Cubs decided to reward him with a recall. Ascanio is not very big, but throws hard. In spite of the minor league numbers, he still profiles as a long reliever and based on his history, the surge at Iowa may just be a fluke.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/8/09

The big story in baseball is obviously the 50-game Manny Ramirez suspension following the Dodger superstar’s positive drug test. Sorry, I’m just not going to get too worked up over this. There’s zero question in my mind that performance enhancing drugs are very prevalent in every sport, and Manny was simply dumb enough to get caught. For those who just can’t believe this happened, wake up. The only surprise is that he got caught.

Look, it’s really pretty simple. There’s a ton of money, fame and incredible perks that go with life for any big league athlete, and that’s regardless of the sport. Anyone who really believes that all the players are going to play by the rules is being pretty naive. If there’s an edge to be had, a good percentage of the participants are going to take the risk, and it’s a pretty low risk at that. Put in mandatory blood testing and maybe then you’ll see a big drop in the percentage of players operating outside the rules. Until that time, forget about it.

By the way, if you think this use of performance enhancers is limited to the adult sports world, your head is completely embedded in the sand. It’s rampant at the high school level, where there is virtually no safeguarding because of the expense and the time that would be involved.

Anyway, that’s all I’ve got to say on the latest “Manny Being Manny” episode. I’d rather write about what’s happening on the field.
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The first managerial casualty of the new season is Bob Melvin, who got canned by the Diamondbacks on Thursday. In fact, it’s going to be a whole new brain trust in the Snakes dugout. Hitting coach Rick Schu was also axed and pitching coach Bryan Price resigned.

I’m a little surprised Price is out, although it appears as though that was his decision rather than one made by the organization. The Arizona pitching is clearly not the problem.

But the offense has been absolutely hideous and while it’s easy to make the staff seem like scapegoats for poor on-field performances, I think these moves have some justification. Fact is, the Diamondbacks have one of the least disciplined lineups I’ve ever seen. This is a team loaded with swing and miss types and whatever approach Schu was taking was clearly not getting through to his players. Justin Upton seems to be putting it all together, but several other highly regarded prospects have either stayed in neutral or regressed. A change in offensive philosophy is desperately needed or the Diamondbacks will continue to flounder.

Melvin bears the brunt of the responsibility for what, at least in appearance, seems to be a thoroughly uninspired team. The Diamondbacks just don’t come across as the most fired up team in the world, and they look like they need a good kick in the butt. That’s just an observation on my part that has no real basis other than the eye test, but without first hand knowledge of what the clubhouse situation is like, that’s all I’ve got so I’ll go with it.

A.J. Hinch is the new skipper. Hinch is just 34 years old and not that far removed from his playing days. He sure fits the description of the typical manager, as he was a catcher who bounced around for several years at both the minor and major league levels. Jack Howell takes over as hitting coach and reports are that Mel Stottlemyre, Jr will be the new pitching coach.

The Diamondbacks will thus have one of the youngest and least experienced big league staffs I’ve ever seen running the show. But I like the idea of new blood over tired retreads, so ‘Zona fans should be pretty excited about the overhaul. I also like the fact that management didn’t drag their feet. The team is off to a lousy start, but they’re hardly out of it, and by making the big moves now, the D-Backs should have a chance to get back in the hunt.

Imploding a staff to this extent is usually a move made out of desperation and often fails miserably. But I feel as though this major move makes sense, and I like the direction the Diamondbacks have taken. We’ll see whether it pays off over the next several months.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/7/09

You never can tell with prospects. Sometimes they live up to billing, sometimes they never develop. Some are underrated to begin with, but figure things out and earn their chance to play at the highest level. Then there are my personal favorites, the grinders who were overlooked but persevere and eventually get their chance in the show. And there are also the guys who literally come out of nowhere. The last few days have seen a handful of call-ups by various teams, and it’s a group that includes players from each of the categories I just mentioned.

I’ll start with the big name of the bunch, and that’s Matt LaPorta. I’ve already written quite a bit about LaPorta, and the Indians finally decided it was time to bring him up. LaPorta will undoubtedly have some struggles now that he’s with the Tribe, but the hope here is that they’ll let him have an extended opportunity. There’s plenty of improvement needed defensively for LaPorta, but he’s got the stick. Whether LaPorta sticks around once Travis Hafner returns from the DL is questionable, but I feel he’s done all he can do in the minors and should look for permanent housing in the Cleveland area. We’ll see if the Indians agree.

Greg Golson is the prospect with the tools who just hasn’t put it together. Golson was selected 21st overall by the Phillies in 2004 and was obtained by Texas this off-season in a swap for another struggling high pick, John Mayberry, Jr. Golson has a big league glove and he can motor. He’s been stymied by an inability to fine tune his strike zone, and it’s a problem that is not going away. Golson had respectable numbers at AAA Oklahoma City, but the 24 K’s in just 70 AB is the issue once again. Nevertheless, the Rangers have recalled him and he’ll at least stick around till Josh Hamilton returns next week. Just 23, it’s far too soon to give up on Golson, but he now profiles as a fourth OF rather than the star many thought he would be when he was drafted.

The rising prospect is Josh Whitesell, who toiled mostly in anonymity for five years in the Blue Jays organization, only getting as far as AA. But things have changed dramatically for Whitesell since he signed with the Diamondbacks. Whitesell was given shot to play at AAA Tucson last season, and he suddenly blew up, hitting .328 with 26 bombs and 110 RBI. He did so well the D-Backs gave him a September cup of coffee with the big club and he went 2/7 with a pinch-hit homer. Whitesell has been red hot for Reno this year, crushing PCL pitching to the tune of .356 and with the parent team’s offense scuffling badly, Whitesell has gotten the call. He started Wednesday night, hitting fifth and went 0/2 but also drew a pair of walks. I think Whitesell might have a legit chance to take away at bats from struggling Chad Tracy. He’s not noted for his defense, but the D-Backs need bats right now. For those in NL-only roto leagues, keep an eye on Whitesell as he could be an inexpensive source of power.

The grinder is Bobby Scales, who was promoted from Iowa by the Cubs. Scales is 31 and looked like the prototypical minor league lifer. He’s bounced all over the map since being drafted in the 14th round of the ‘99 draft by the Padres. Scales has been an organizational player for the Phillies, Red Sox and Cubs and didn’t figure as a guy who would ever get to the show without a ticket. But a solid 2008 at AAA Iowa got the attention of the Cubs, and his quick start this season, along with some injuries for the big club, have gotten Scales his chance to play Major League Baseball. He’s doubtful to stick full time, and could well be back to Iowa within a week. But the fact Scales plays 2B and both corner OF spots means he’s versatile, he can hit a little with occasional pop, and he’s got a chance to carve out a spot as a utility player somewhere, if not with the Cubs. Good story and congrats to Bobby Scales for not giving up on the dream.

Finally, there’s the player that comes from nowhere and ends up wearing a big league uniform. Say hello to Alfredo Aceves, New York Yankee. Aceves actually got a look last September, and that was a pretty amazing story in itself. Aceves was signed by the Blue Jays back in 2001, but after just a handful of appearances in the DSL, the Jays decided to sell his contract to Yucatan in the Mexican League, and that’s where he’d pitched ever since. Give the Yankees points for this one. Aceves never put up any spectacular stats down Mexico way, but they saw something they liked and inked him to a minor league contract for the 2008 season. All Aceves did was climb a whopping four levels over the course of the season and finished the year with the Yankees. He’s got a five-pitch arsenal and is somewhat of a nibbler, even though he occasionally touches the low 90’s with his fastball. Given the state of the NYY bullpen, Aceves figures to get every chance to stick with the big club this time.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/6/09

The best rivalry in baseball, and for that matter in anything, is the eternal duel between the Red Sox and Yankees. It’s actually never been better than it is right now. As an admitted Red Sox diehard, I’ll have to confess that for most of my life, the rivalry always meant more to “us” than “them”. Let’s face it, the Yankees have always been concerned with winning championships. From a Boston fan’s perspective, since our team wasn’t exactly a title juggernaut for, oh, about 86 years, just finishing ahead of the Yankees in the standings was about as good as it got. That’s really the only thing that got some of us through the winters following the massive October disappointments in 1967, 1975 and 1986. At least the Sox got the pennant in those three seasons, and the Yankees didn’t.

That’s all changed in the last few years. 2004 took care of that. Yankee fans can deny it all they want, and trot out the 26 World Series titles claptrap. Fact is, they haven’t won anything in what, for that franchise, is forever, the Red Sox have two championships and Yankee fans now hate us as much as we hate them.

(For those outside the Red Sox-Yankees circle, we don’t really hate each other personally. But we fake it pretty well. And it’s loads of fun on both sides. Well, at least it’s fun on our side right now.)

The cool part of the rivalry is that it has usually extended to the teams themselves. There have been some memorable battles between these two teams over the years. And there may be another one coming the next time they get together.

The Red Sox just completed their second consecutive series sweep against NYY and it got more than a little testy in these two games at the new stadium in the Bronx. Yankees manager Joe Girardi and Red Sox 1B coach Tim Bogar got into a verbal joust as Girardi accused Bogar of stealing signs. Later in the game, Boston’s J.D. Drew got plunked and my suspicions are that it wasn’t purely accidental.

The Jason Bay incident on Tuesday was beyond doubt. Bay homered on Monday and then took Joba Chamberlain deep in a huge first inning explosion by the Sox. Chamberlain later nailed Bay with a pitch. No question this was intentional. Also no question that Chamberlain should be hit with one of those meaningless five-game suspensions, just as Josh Beckett was a couple weeks ago. In any event, the Red Sox have a staff that’s not shy at all about sending messages of their own and I would be surprised if someone in pinstripes doesn’t get one delivered high and inside the next time these teams meet.

It’s not going at all well for Girardi right now. I don’t think he’ll beat Cleveland’s Eric Wedge to the unemployment office (more on that shortly). But the heat is definitely on Girardi, and he seems to be coming a bit unhinged. The pitching has been hideous, the defense has been predictably shaky and now they’ve lost tremendously valuable Jorge Posada to another injury. Posada is the glue on this team, and as mediocre as they’ve been with Jorge in the lineup, it almost has to get worse without him. Plus, the zoo will apparently officially be open for business this weekend with the return of Alex Rodriguez. An inglorious position in the AL East standings, missing the playoffs last season, Joe Torre and the Dodgers winning big in LA… you do the math. Something is going to happen soon, and I can’t see how it won’t be a change in the dugout.

Maybe the Yankees can replace Girardi with the aforementioned Eric Wedge. He figures to be available very soon. The Indians continue to underachieve dramatically, and although it’s clear that Wedge and head honcho Mark Shapiro have a great relationship, they really need to make a change.

The latest in the never ending succession of bizarre and unexplainable Wedge maneuvers came Tuesday when the Indians went with Shin-Soo Choo as their DH against Blue Jays rookie southpaw Brett Cecil. Huh? Choo is about a .240 lifetime hitter vs. lefties, and he’s been slumping the last week or so. Meanwhile, Ryan Garko owns a .317 career BA vs. southpaws, and Garko was riding an eight-game hitting streak going into Tuesday’s action. Since Garko eventually did get into the game as a pinch-hitter, I’ll assume he was okay to DH the entire game. There’s simply no rational explanation I can find for Wedge putting Choo’s name on the lineup card instead of Garko’s. Makes no sense.

I hate to continuously crush the guy, but my observations are that Wedge is a really weak strategist. Peculiar lineup configurations and constantly questionable bullpen decisions are the norm rather than the exception with the Indians. Sorry, but this team needs to make a change quickly if they don’t want to again be playing catch up in the AL Central come July.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/5/09

A full time closer actually only works about 5% of the time. Translated, the typical finisher throws somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 innings over the course of a full season. That represents roughly 5% of the total number of innings the team plays. In essence, the closer works less than almost anyone on the team. But there’s little question, at least in my mind, that the closer has one of the most important jobs in the game.

There is some debate as far as the importance of the closer’s role. After all, the primary function of the closer most of the time is to simply get three outs. From a purely mathematical standpoint, it’s easy to make the argument that closers and their need to be defined as such is wildly overrated. I have also strongly disagreed with that position. The way I see it, they’re the three most important outs, the final three with the game on the line. And there just isn’t any doubt in my mind that the mental edge owned by a team with a dominant closer is an intangible that can’t be measured statistically. Just take a look at the last several World Series winners, and tell me how many of them didn’t have that stone cold finisher.

The lack of a good closer will impact an entire staff. I believe most players function better with defined roles, and when the closer role is up in the air, it seems to frequently have a negative impact on the whole team. The starters feel as though they have to be perfect. The position players often look tight late in games, playing as if any mistake is a disaster that will open the floodgates. The teams with the stud finishers are more relaxed and confident and I’ll go with that team over its opposite number every time.

Closers also carry quite a bit of weight in fantasy baseball. It’s my contention that even the best closers get drafted too early in most leagues. But make no mistake, it’s not a category anyone should simply dismiss, and once that inevitable run begins in any league’s draft, it’s important to join the party and snare at least one good closer.

Of course, there’s no harm in scouring the free agent pools and waiver wires during the season for potential closers. Most teams have that one go to guy that they stay with all season unless an injury occurs. But there are inevitably a handful of teams can’t locate a solid ninth inning finisher and are constantly looking for someone to fill the role. Fantasy owners are thus doing the same thing, trying to fill out the last spot or two on their staffs with someone who looms as a good bet to inherit a closing role at some point.

Here’s a look at the teams that have the most questionable closing situations right now. I’ll list the incumbent and the best possibilities to perhaps step in and take over the job.

George Sherrill is no apparently out as the full time closer for Baltimore. There was widespread speculation prior to the season that this might happen, and former closer Chris Ray seemed like the automatic replacement, as he’d done well a couple years ago before getting hurt. Ray has not pitched at all well lately, and I would say Jim Johnson might be most deserving to get the next shot. Danys Baez is a former closer, and he’s actually been effective for the most part this season. But Baez is being used for more than one inning at a time, and is better suited for long relief. Word is it’s going to be a Sherrill/Ray committee for the time being. Either one is risky, but if Ray is available in your league, he’s probably worth a shot. The worst thing that happens is you get a couple of ugly outings and he’s out of the mix. The upside makes it worth the risk.

The Cubs have been going with Kevin Gregg, but the general consensus is that Carlos Marmol eventually takes over. I won’t dwell on this duel, as both pitchers are owned in most leagues and can’t be found on many free agent lists.

The Rockies started the season with Huston Street closing, switched to Manny Corpas and have no gone back to Street. I think Street may have a longer leash this time as Corpas has been really bad. But you might want to keep tabs on Jason Grilli, who I believe would be next in line if Street can’t maintain the job.

Fernando Rodney is doing enough to keep closing for the Tigers, but he’s prone to getting hurt or simply losing his control. Joel Zumaya is finally healthy, Brando Lyon has closed for other teams and Ryan Perry was drafted specifically to close games. It’s too soon for Perry and Lyon basically blew the job with a lousy spring. I’d say Zumaya is worth taking if available right now, as even if he doesn’t close he could score valuable points in other counting categories.

Matt Lindstrom is the man in Florida. I have no idea how secure he is as closer for the Marlins, but I’m just not that high on him. Leo Nunez or Kiko Calero are watch list candidates.

Jose Valverde appears on this list because he’s injured. LaTroy Hawkins is closing in the interim, and he looks secure until Valverde returns.

The Seattle Mariners may have co-closers all season. They’re being very cautious with Brandon Morrow, and I would look for him to continue sharing responsibilities with David Aardsma even after his return from a short stint on the DL. Here’s a name to file, however, as the Mariners have recently converted prospect Phillippe Aumont into a reliever. He’s a prototypical finisher in terms of stuff, and it appears as though Seattle management wants to accelerate his progress through the system. I don’t think he’ll be in the mix this year, but mark Aumont down as someone to perhaps invest in next spring.

The Nationals have no closer at all right now. They took the job away from a badly struggling Joel Hanrahan, and are giving old pro Julian Tavarez a shot for the time being. But word is out that once lefty Joe Beimel finishes his injury rehab, he’s next in line for an audition. Beimel put together three strong seasons as a member of the Dodgers bullpen, and he deserves an opportunity. Whether he can produce for the Nationals as a closer is something we’ll have to find out.

Finally, there’s one name that everyone should be aware of, as he’ll eventually be closing somewhere. Daniel Bard is closing at AAA Pawtucket and he’s absolutely blowing hitters away. Bard is obviously blocked in Boston by Jonathan Papelbon, but he’s going to get to the big club at some point this season, I would think. Even if he can’t close in Boston, he’s going to be worth owning for what should be a huge K rate and he’ll likely vulture a few wins and saves as well. Bard could also be used as prime bait if the Red Sox decide to try and deal at the deadline, as he’s becoming more and more of a prized commodity. And that’s in both fantasy baseball and the real game itself!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 4/5/09

One of the more confusing annual elections in sports is for baseball’s Most Valuable Player. What’s the true criteria for this award? Some voters are convinced the MVP should simply go to the best player in each league, while others believe it rightfully ought to be bestowed upon the players that did the most for their teams.

Personally, I don’t think it should be as tough a call as it’s made out to be. The phenomenal expansion of statistical analysis that’s now available has pretty much cleared up the argument for me. Find the top VORP player and you’ve got your MVP.

VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player. Translated, this is the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same number of team plate appearances. The only flaw in using VORP as a basis for the offensive MVP is that defense is not factored into the rankings. Obviously, this category also excludes pitchers. The hurlers have their own similar system to determine value, which is called WARP. I don’t have a problem with separating position players from pitchers as far as the awards are concerned, by the way.

From a handicapping perspective, these stats are just one more edge the bettor can utilize on a daily basis. I’ve already discussed how valuable tracking BABIP can be when it comes to analyzing pitchers, especially when it’s used in conjunction with BB/K ratios. VORP isn’t nearly as vital, but if you know a key player may be missing a game, it’s sure not a bad thing to have a base that determines how much of an impact that player’s absence is likely to have on the team’s chances of winning.

Here’s a rundown of the top ten VORP players through the season’s first month. Compare this list with your personal top ten. You’ll surely see some obvious candidates on the list, but there are a couple of guys who appear to be seriously underrated among this group.

Evan Longoria is edging out Kevin Youkilis for the top spot, with Albert Pujols and the strongly rebounding Victor Martinez right behind. Adam Jones, Baltimore’s young sensation is fifth, followed by Ian Kinsler, Raul Ibanez, Aaron Hill and Chase Utley. Manny Ramirez rounds out the top ten.

Then there’s the other end of the spectrum. Yes, there is an LVP to talk about, baseball’s Least Valuable Player thus far this season. And I have to tell you, it’s not even close.

The worst player in the game through the season’s first month, bar none, is San Diego’s Brian Giles. Giles finally managed to hit one out on Sunday in a 1/5 effort against the Dodgers, but he’s been absolutely awful. The bonus is that he’s also playing less than stellar defense.

What makes this really notable is that the Padres were absolutely crushed by almost every sharp analyst I know (and that includes myself) for signing Giles to a new contract last December. It’s true that Giles had a respectable 2008 campaign. He hit .306, and owned a solid .398 OBP. But his production has been dropping off, he’s now 38 years old and considering the decent dollars the apparently cash-poor Padres shelled out, this signing made zero sense. Giles was a free agent following the 2008 campaign, and bringing him back certainly looms as a dumb move by Friars management.

Mark it down as just one more bad decision for a sad sack San Diego organization that has been become even more inept off the field than on it.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 5/1/09

Random thoughts heading into the weekend…

Anyone else shocked at the serious struggles of catchers Geovany Soto and Russell Martin? The Cubs backstop is hitting .111 and there’s speculation his hand injury from late last summer may still be bothering him. As for Martin, this is a mystery. The Dodgers receiver hitting just .205, and just doesn’t seem to be getting good wood on the ball.

Another player who’s really scuffling right now is Milwaukee SS J.J. Hardy. He’s mired in a .156 slump to start the season. Hardy may be out of a job by next season with Alcides Escobar on the way, but his horrendous start to the year could accelerate the transition. Hardy looms as a possible trading chip later this season if the Brewers aren’t contending. But that’s down the road, and right now Milwaukee fans would just like to see Hardy get back to his usual self.

Another incumbent who’s soon to be pushed by a hot Brewers prospect is 3B Bill Hall. Mat Gamel doesn’t have much of a glove, but he can really rake. Gamel is crushing the ball at Nashville thus far. But Hall is also doing a terrific job. Looks like Hall’s Lasik procedure is paying big dividends as he’s showing signs of getting back toward the level he enjoyed back in 2006.

The back end of the Dodgers rotation is now a real concern. Hiroki Kuroda is going to be out longer than anticipated. Eric Stults is a decent stopgap, but it looks as though James McDonald will need to be sent to Albuquerque to refine his control. McDonald was all over the place Thursday and just doesn’t look ready. Jeff Weaver returned to the bigs with a very solid stint in relief of McDonald, and while his role is supposed to be middle relief, my guess is he’ll be starting soon.

I mentioned recently that Brian Burres was not capable of filling the #5 role in the Blue Jays rotation. Apparently the Toronto brass has now arrived at the same conclusion. Burres was shipped back to Las Vegas following his latest disaster. I also took a stab and said the Jays might want to take a chance on AA lefty Fabio Castro, and now it looks as though he might get his shot. Nothing official on the transaction wire but that’s the rumor.

The Astros are one of my favorite organizations to trash, and it looks as though they’re about to give me some more ammunition. Manager Cecil Cooper indicates that they’re going to put Brian Moehler back in the rotation once he completes his injury rehab, which means power arm Felipe Paulino either goes to the bullpen or back to Round Rock. The Astros are nuts. Paulino has done a decent job in his three starts and now that he’s finally healthy, Houston needs to give him a legit shot. It would be one thing if this was Roy Oswalt coming back from an injury to reclaim his spot. It’s not Oswalt. It’s Brian Moehler, for cryin’ out loud. Personally, I love the move as I bet the Under on the Astros win total, so every stupid move they make is fine with me.

A quick Tommy Hanson update. Six scoreless in his latest start at Gwinnet. Hanson has a 9/38 BB/K ratio in 29.2 IP and a 1.69 ERA. Think one of the game’s top two or three pitching prospects might be ready yet, guys?

The Washington Nationals now have Julian Tavarez pitching the ninth inning. That should tell you all you need to know about what is far and away the worst team in the game. The draft (Stephen Strasburg) cannot come soon enough for this pathetic franchise. Yes, they’ll have to pay through the nose for his services. Strasburg might cost as much as $50 million. That’s about $40 million more than the Cubs gave Mark Prior several years ago. But they’re going to have to fork over the dough.

Speaking of the starcrossed Prior, it continues to not go well. He’s now Padres property, and they’re hoping for a miracle comeback at some point. Not gonna happen. Prior threw a bullpen session on Tuesday and came out of it with a sore shoulder. No timetable on when the next attempt takes place. It’s really too bad, as Prior was one of the most electrifying talents I’ve ever seen. Unfortunately, it appears as though it just wasn’t meant to be.

Back at it on Monday, enjoy the weekend!