ALL THREE SIDES WIN IN MANNY SWEEPSTAKES
It's finally over. The eternal on-again, off-again marriage between Manny Ramirez and the Boston Red Sox has at last come to an end. The divorce decree was finalized Thursday in a three-way deal involving the Red Sox, Dodgers and Pirates. The Dodgers received custody of the child in the dispute (Manny), the Red Sox got a very strong replacement in Jason Bay, and the Pirates continued to rebuild their horribly depleted organization with four prospects.
My immediate take on the trade is that Boston is the big winner, and it's not close. I stated this on my radio show as soon as the deal was announced, and was immediately trashed via phone calls and text messages. The response was virtually unanimous that the Dodgers were the big winners, the Pirates were complete idiots (again) and the Red Sox were dead as far as this season is concerned, as Manny is irreplaceable. It's my contention that the listeners will be proven wrong on all counts.
First, let's examine the Manny-Bay comparison. While there is no question whatsoever that Ramirez is an all-time great hitter, his best days are behind him. He's still very productive and when he gets hot, there's no way to contain him. But those monster runs aren't as frequent as they used to be. Manny is still a high level offensive performer, but he's not quite elite anymore. He's 36, he's terrible defensively and I don't see how it's possible not to factor into the equation his sporadic tantrums. These were easy to overlook when Manny was delivering incredible offensive numbers, but that's not the case these days.
Over the last four seasons, Ramirez has delivered a .301 BA, with per season production numbers of 85 runs, 30 HR and 101 RBI. Over that same four-year span, Jason Bay has a .281 BA, with 90 runs, 28 HR and 90 RBI. That's not exactly a huge difference statistically. Cut the comparison to just the last three seasons, and it gets even closer with Manny beating Bay in only the batting average category.
There's more. Bay is 29 years old. He costs way less than Manny. Bay is hardly Gold Glove material in LF, but he's better with the glove than Ramirez. And there are no attitude issues. The only question I have about Bay is whether he'll be up to flourishing under the glare of the demanding New England media and the always intense Red Sox Nation. Manny was always huge in the clutch and Bay will have to prove he doesn't fold under pressure. That's something we'll all find out about shortly. This is virgin territory for Bay and it's pointless to guess how he'll react to his first real exposure to the center stage.
The Dodgers are getting Ramirez for the rest of this season at no cost. The Red Sox are paying the $7 million balance due on his salary for this year, and Manny is now a free agent at the end of the campaign. I can't knock the LA brain trust for this move. The Dodgers had to do something to get some pure power into that feeble attack, and all it cost was two prospects. I don't see much possibility that Ramirez will stay with the Dodgers past this season. His asking price will be huge and with the Dodgers already saddled with some monster contracts for their mostly non-productive veterans, they're simply not going to be able to afford Manny. But he's a gift horse for the rest of this year, and could very well be the force that gets the Dodgers past the Diamondbacks in the ghastly NL West.
As for the Pirates, they got what they needed, and that's more bodies. I understand the angst of the long-suffering Bucs faithful. At first glance, it looks like they simply gave away their best player yet again. But the truth is that they weren't going to win anything with Jason Bay, and the real need for this team is to rebuild the entire organization. The Pirates need quantity right now more than anything else. They need to get way more talented at each level of their farm system, and the way to do that is by moving their highest-price big league names, loading up on prospects and drafting much better than they have.
In this deal, the Pirates picked up Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen from Boston. They also obtained Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris from the Dodgers. That's actually a pretty good haul.
Moss and LaRoche are big league ready right now. Moss is not likely to be a big star, but there's nothing wrong with a .270, 20 HR type who's also a very solid defender. LaRoche has all the tools to become a big producer in the middle of the order. His main issue is finding a way to stay healthy and get the experience he needs to reach his offensive potential. Hansen has been a pretty substantial flop to date, but he's got a killer slider and still projects as a legitimate closer. I think his problem is between the ears at this point, and a move to a less obsessed locale should be a big benefit. Morris is 18 months removed from TJS on his elbow and has started to show signs of life at Lo-A. He's strictly wait and see material right now, but Morris was a first-rounder back in '06, so there's clearly some potential there.
My contention that Boston was the big winner in this deal is based on the fact that they were able to land a very high caliber player in Bay despite the fact everyone knew they trying to unload Manny. That's a helluva deadline score under those circumstances. But I also like how this shakes out for the Dodgers and Pirates.
For once, I simply have no one that I can criticize with conviction. Except the masses who, as usual, managed to come up with a knee-jerk reaction with no factual data to support their opinion.
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