Dave Cokin

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/08/08

RED SOX TRADE STARTER FOR RELIEVER

Okay, not really. But sort of. In effect, what the Red Sox are doing is trading in starter Justin Masterson for reliever Justin Masterson. Boston has recalled Clay Buchholz from Pawtucket and he's going back onto the rotation. Masterson is heading down for a few short stints out of the bullpen with the idea of a quick recall, probably shortly after the break.

Buchholz didn't do well in his most recent AAA outing, but was razor sharp before that. He's made an alteration to his delivery that should lessen his chances of getting hurt, and Buchholz remains the Red Sox prospect with the highest ceiling, as his stuff is legit top of the rotation quality.

Masterson has done some good work with the parent club. There's sure nothing wrong with 4-3, 3.67. But given the issues that Boston is having with their bullpen, Masterson will be more valuable to them for this season pitching in relief. He's been lights out vs. righty hitters, limiting them to a meager .170 BA, so look for Masterson to be the key situational reliever from the starboard side. As for his future, it's still as a starter, and Masterson will head to camp next spring looking to nail down a permanent rotation spot.

This is another smart move by Red Sox management. Why bother to trade a prospect when the better move is to use one of their own? The Red Sox aren't about to repeat the Eric Gagne blunder from last season and it appears they won't be dealing for pitching unless it becomes absolutely necessary. Considering there are some other very live arms at Pawtucket and Portland, I don't see that worst case scenario arising.

From a fantasy standpoint, Masterson won't have any value other than as a roster filler in deep AL-only leagues. But Buchholz should be tabbed in all deep league formats. I'm confident he'll put up more than respectable numbers, with his good starts far outnumbering the bad ones.

COULD THE MARLINS BE BUYERS?

It seems ridiculous considering they appeared to give up on the season before it began, but the Florida Marlins are 1.5 games out of first place in the NL East and have a genuine shot to win the division.

The Marlins have a terrific, power-laden offense. There are home threats throughout the lineup and skipper Fredi Gonzalez continues to push the right buttons as he makes use of his entire roster as well as anyone.

The question for the Marlins is whether their pitching can hold up. Ricky Nolasco has been nothing short of sensational lately and is establishing himself as a true #1 starter. I don't consider this run to be a fluke, and recommended him as a fantasy pickup some time ago.

Beyond Nolasco, there are several question marks. The southpaw tandem of Scott Olsen and Andrew Miller remain highly erratic. The Marlins are about to make a pair of changes at the back of the rotation. Well regarded prospect Chris Volstad and returning veteran Josh Johnson will take over the #4-5 slots, with Mark Hendrickson and Ryan Tucker heading to the bullpen. The Marlins are also hopeful of getting Anibal Sanchez and Sergio Mitre back from the DL sometime in late July or early August.

There are clearly lots of options for Gonzalez to try. But what would benefit the Marlins the most would be a solid #3-type that they can count on for six or seven competitive innings on a regular basis. Florida has plenty of prospects with decent ceilings. They should strongly consider packaging a pair for that veteran mid-rotation guy as they have a real chance to make the playoffs.

Of course, that might mean adding a few dollars to their payroll, and that's the stumbling block. This team hates spending any money, and I'm of the belief they won't do anything to increase their chances of getting to the NL post-season. I hope I'm wrong on that count, as I think the Marlins are a pretty amazing story. I just don't see their ownership as caring about anything other than stuffing their pockets with as much cash as possible.

From a fantasy vantage point, I would not claim any of the Florida arms aside from Nolasco, who certainly figures to be long gone already in any quality league. The rest of the hurlers listed are just too volatile for my liking. But if you're looking for a bat or two, scan the scrap heap in your loop and see what Marlins may still be sitting out there. And if you spot the name Cody Ross on that list, grab him immediately. Ross is not a big BA guy, but he's got loads of power and he's blazing hot right now!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/07/08

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 07/07/08

BREWERS ROLL THE DICE

The Milwaukee Brewers haven’t won anything in ages, but they’ve got a legitimate shot at October play this year. They took a huge step in that direction by acting first in the C.C. Sabathia sweepstakes. Milwaukee took the plunge by giving up their best prospect and three other players (according to unofficial reports) to, in effect, rent Sabathia for the rest of this season.

Sabathia, a free agent come season’s end, will almost certainly not be a Brewer in 2009. The same can likely be said for Ben Sheets, and perhaps Prince Fielder. The former is in his contract walk year, and the latter doesn’t seem to have any real interest in committing long term to the Brewers. Bearing that in mind, the Brewers decided that they have what amounts to a small window where they have a real shot at capturing a spot in the NL playoffs, and they decided to go for it.

I can’t argue with the thought process here. While the Brewers have some really talented young offensive talent in place, with or without Fielder, they don’t have a wealth of genuine young pitching talent. Manny Parra is the real deal, and injured Yovani Gallardo is a future ace. But beyond those two, there aren’t many arms of note on the way through the system and the current staff minus Sheets would be a sieve. Offense is great, but it’s pitching and defense that win titles. That means the one real shot for Milwaukee is right now, and they decided to roll those dice.

The Indians have been among the biggest flops in the game this year. They were one win short of a spot in the World Series last year, but this season they’re at the bottom of the AL Central. Their two best offensive players, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, were both underperforming at an alarming rate before going down with injuries. Fausto Carmona also got hurt, and he wasn’t pitching like he did last year before the injury occurred. The Cleveland bullpen has been mostly miserable. In fact, aside from the Cy Young caliber first half turned in by Cliff Lee, it’s been almost all bad for the Tribe.

The Indians also have little to get excited about in their farm system. Adam Miller remained their top prospect coming into this season, but he can’t seem to stay healthy, and his stock has started to slide. Beyond Miller, there’s a potential power source in Beau Mills and a handful of mid-level prospects, but very little that stands out.

This deal remedies that situation to at least some extent. Matt LaPorta is a star in the making. He’s got all the tools to become a first-rate corner outfielder, and could arrive in the bigs as a regular by sometime next season. Taylor Green has substantial upside as well. A third baseman, Green has already mastered the strike zone in his brief professional career, and he’s got okay power. LaPorta is much closer to the majors right now than Green, but both qualify as everyday players in the future.

The two pitchers reportedly included don’t generate the same excitement. Rob Bryson has accumulated some eye-opening strikeout numbers at Low-A, but he’s a two-pitch type who is already throwing mostly relief at the bottom end of the minor league food chain. I’d classify Bryson as a low-end prospect. Zack Jackson is simply a body for the organization. He’s had a couple of cups of big league coffee, but Jackson is getting annihilated at AAA this year, and does not project as a major league pitcher.

I like the deal for both sides. The Brewers would not have needed to make this deal had Gallardo not gotten hurt. But he did, and it left a gaping hole in the Milwaukee rotation. The team is configured to make a run in the soft NL right now, and they decided to go for the brass ring. I agree with that thought process. The Indians were going to lose Sabathia anyway, and they managed to snare a legitimate Top 10 prospect in LaPorta. Getting Green in the deal nets them two potential starting position players for what amounts to nothing, and that’s a great move.

I also love the fact that we’re seeing a deal of this magnitude with the trade deadline still more than three weeks away. That’s a good indicator that it’s going to be a freewheeling frenzy as the end of July approaches, and that’s exciting news for any baseball fan!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/03/08

FIRST HALF ALL-FLOPS

Yesterday I did my rundown on my first half All-Stars. The best performer at each position based on actual performance, with no emphasis on perception. Today, it's time for the flip side. These are the biggest 2008 flops by position, and here perception means a ton. These are the performers who have missed their projections by the biggest margins.

C: Victor Martinez, Indians

1B: Richie Sexson, Mariners

2B: Robinson Cano, Yankees

SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

3B: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

LF: Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks

CF: Andruw Jones, Dodgers

RF: Alex Rios, Blue Jays

DH: Travis Hafner, Indians

SP: Brett Myers, Phillies

RP: J.J. Putz, Mariners

Mgr: Willie Randolph, Mets

Toughest call was right field. It's not that Rios has been terrible, but his woeful production has to be mentioned. I went with Sexson and Jones at their respective spots even though I didn't figure either guy would be anything spectacular. But they've both been even worse than I could have imagined. Sexson has actually managed to lose playing time to Miguel Cairo! Cabrera gets the nod at 3B even though he got moved across the diamond. That's because his defense was so pathetic the Tigers couldn't afford to keep him at the hot corner. His offense hasn't been sensational, either. And finally, Randolph gets the call as the skipper of the All-Flop team, as he manged to do so little with the talent on hand he ended up getting canned.

Three-day vacation time with the holiday. Enjoy your Fourth of July and I'll return on Monday with more hardcore. Send your feedback and questions to me at:espnradio1100@gmail.com

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/02/08

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 07/02/08

FIRST HALF ALL STARS

It’s halftime in the big leagues, although the All-Star intermission is still a couple of weeks away. So it’s time to run down the top performers at each position. I imagine some of these picks might raise some eyebrows and create some debate, but my selections are based on the factual data that’s been accumulated to date. Past performance doesn’t count, and neither does reputation. Finally, this is strictly by position. This year, I could easily have fielded a team with only one outfielder. Believe me, leaving off a couple of deserving IF’s wasn’t easy!

C: Russell Martin, Dodgers

1B: Lance Berkman, Astros

2B: Ian Kinsler, Rangers

SS: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins

3B: Chipper Jones, Braves

LF: Carlos Quentin, White Sox

CF: Josh Hamilton, Rangers

RF: J.D. Drew, Red Sox

DH: Milton Bradley, Rangers

SP: Cliff Lee, Indians

RP: Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mgr: Joe Madden, Rays

Okay, there’s my list. The toughest decisions were at 2B and 3B, along with the RF slot. Leaving off Chase Utley or Dan Uggla at the keystone along with Alex Rodriguez at the hot corner was really difficult. Drew seems an unlikely choice in RF, but he’s among the leaders in all the key categories, and he belongs.

Got a good argument with any of these choices? I’d like to hear ‘em. Drop me a line at espnradio1100@gmail.com or just leave your feedback here is the function is available.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/01/08

MORE THAN RAYS OF HOPE

I thought the Tampa Bay Rays would be pretty good this season. They were one of my best Over the Win Total proposition opinions. I don't consider this to be brilliant thinking on my part, as it seemed like a fairly obvious play.

The Rays have been stockpiling an outstanding array of prospects who are now maturing into big league quality performers. The top of the rotation is really strong with Scott Kazmir and James Shields and I felt that Matt Garza had to rate among the best #3 starters in the game. I wasn't as sure about their bullpen, but liked the look of their everyday lineup. So it wasn't a stretch for me to opine that the Rays would not only easily surpass the projected win total, but I believed they had a great shot at posting their first-ever winning record.

But did I think for even one second that the Rays would be in first place in the powerful AL East on July 1, 2008? Of course I didn't! Everyone who knows me is fully aware that I'm a diehard Boston Red Sox fan. And I have to admit that I'm starting to worry more than just a little bit about what I thought would be a fairly easy road to another divisional crown. The Rays are for real and they don't appear to ready to fade away.

I would still make Boston the favorite to win the division. They've got great depth, they're going to get David Ortiz back soon (hopefully), and if need be, they'll deal another prospect or two from their loaded far system for that stretch drive piece that puts them over the top.

But as a fan of not just the Red Sox, but also of the game itself, I'm really excited about the rise of the Rays. Tampa Bay is at the head of the class, but they're not the only long dormant franchise that's showing signs of legitimate life. Make no mistake, that's a good thing for the game and I hope it continues.

ROLEN ROLLIN'

Scott Rolen is loving life in Toronto these days. The Blue Jays aren't having a good year, but Rolen has regained his health and he's knocking the cover off the ball right now. Three more hits Monday night for the perennial Gold Glove 3B, giving him 13 safeties in his last 32 AB. Rolen has also flashed some power in this surge with three long balls.

The only question with Rolen is his ability to stay off the DL the rest of the way, as he's been a far too frequent visitor to the shelf the last few years. But with the occasional day off and a little luck, Rolen could be in for a big second half. He's very capable of hitting above .280 with good power. Not exactly stud fantasy numbers, but very useful in any format.

SELL HIGH SIGNAL

Jhonny Peralta went 5/5 Monday for the Indians, including a home run. Peralta has gotten blazing hit lately for the Tribe, and he's now on a 18/41 rampage. But that was his first homer in the streak, so it's not as though he's getting much attention. The long ball Monday is a good sign, as is the fact he's now hitting cleanup for the Indians.

I'm not particularly high on Peralta. He's never been able to figure out the strike zone with any consistency, and he gets pull-crazy too often. He's realistically a .260, 20 HR type. That's not awful for a SS, but Peralta has continued to be overvalued in annual drafts.

I'm pretty confident this latest Peralta run is temporary, but there are enough believers out there to almost guarantee his status as a sell-high candidate. On the flip side, I would not target Peralta as a trade target. The current sizzle is tantalizing, but I see it as more fool's gold than the real deal.

EMPTY AURILIA

Speaking of hot streaks, it's hard not to notice what Rich Aurilia has been doing for the Giants lately. He's on fire, going 21/55 recently, and Aurilia is now over .290 for the season.

But there's just no production to speak of for the veteran utilityman. Aurilia doesn't have the big power stroke anymore. He's done okay in the RBI category with 31 so far in just over 200 AB. That's not a great pace, but it's decent. But thanks to the mostly inept San Francisco attack, Aurilia has crossed home plate only 14 times all year. Add in the fact that he drove himself in six of those occasions with a homer, and the lack of runs scored is staggering.

Aurilia qualifies as eligible at all four IF positions, so he's got some backup value in really deep leagues. But even if he maintains his high BA, which I would deem as unlikely, it's hard to to get excited about anyone hitting toward the back part of the Giants lineup.

CLOSING THINGS OUT

This is the time of the season where there always seems to be some turbulence at the closer post, and it's happening again this year. I'll delve into some ninth-inning possibilities tomorrow.