Dave Cokin

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/31/08

MANNY ON THE MOVE?

Sure looks that way. Baseball insider Will Carroll is reporting that there's an imminent deal involving the Red Sox, Marlins and Pirates. The two big names involved are Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay, and the trade would have Manny moving to Miami with Bay heading to Boston. The Pirates would land Jeremy Hermida and there would be a handful of prospects switching organizations as well. If the deal has indeed been agreed upon by all three parties, there are two potential hurdles that still must be cleared. Bud Selig would still have to sign off on the deal, although I don't see that as anything more than a technicality since it's not really a cash deal. The other obstacle is dicier.

I know Manny has declared his desire to be traded as he no longer can stand all the mental anguish he's getting from the Red Sox brass. I guess that's why he's decided to let down his teammates by dogging it on the field. Makes sense to me. But this is Manny Ramirez we're talking about. Seriously, would anyone be totally shocked if, at the very last minute, Manny decided he didn't want to leave Fenway and vetoed the deal? I'm aware that seems like an impossibility at this point. With anyone else, I don't think it would even be a remote consideration. But with this guy, ya never know. It's Manny.

I'll hold off on sizing up the winners and losers in the deal till it's officially consummated. In the meantime, my best advice is to fire up baseballprospectus.com. That's where you'll find Will Carroll, and he'll have the latest on this impending transaction as it happens. Also, don't forget to catch Will every Tuesday at 2PM Pacific as he joins me for some great baseball talk on ESPN1100 in Las Vegas.

PUDGE IN PINSTRIPES

The Yankees continue to do all kinds of maneuvering. They made two more trades on Wednesday. The one that's worth talking about was with the Tigers, as catcher Pudge Rodriguez heads to the Bronx in exchange for reliever Kyle Farnsworth.

The Yankees are basically renting Pudge, as he's a free agent after this season. I'd be surprised if the Yankees make any real attempt to sign him long term, as they already have a lengthy contract in place with injured Jorge Posada. But Rodriguez is a great acquisition for the balance of this season. No knock on Jose Molina, an excellent defender who's probably been better than hoped for subbing for Posada. But Pudge is a big game veteran who's also a terrific clubhouse presence. He doesn't have much power these days, though the average is still more than respectable. The main assets Pudge will bring to the Yankees fall into the intangible category, and on that note, he's a terrific addition.

Farnsworth is much maligned, but he's been good more often than not this season, and the Tigers need all the help they can get for their dreadful bullpen. I'm of the opinion that Farnsworth has actually become a little underrated over the years. He's constantly trashed by media and fans alike, but that's more a result of getting overhyped early in his career. Add in the occasional mental meltdown and the guy's a walking bullseye.

Farnsworth did indeed look like a star in the making way back when. He had a great year in '01 with the Cubs, but couldn't maintain the momentum. Farnsworth emerged from relative anonymity again in 2005, when he racked up 16 saves along with some awesome peripherals pitching for both Detroit and Atlanta. But again he couldn't make it last, and he's drifted back to a less significant role the last few seasons.

I think there's a real chance Farnsworth could end up in a key role for Detroit, and that might end up including the ninth inning. The Tigers finally figured out that Todd Jones wasn't the answer, and I would think erratic Fernando Rodney is on a very short leash. Farnsworth got roughed up in his last outing for the Yankees, but he'd been on a really impressive month-long role prior to that, so look for him to get some important work for the Tigers.

HUH?

The Yankees made another deal Wednesday, and this one is so weird I couldn't even come up with one of my lousy captions. The Yanks somehow managed to get an undisclosed amount of cash plus a minor leaguer from Houston for LaTroy Hawkins.

It's not like Ed Wade sold the farm to get Hawkins. Actually, the Astros GM doesn't have a farm to sell, as the Houston organization is more like a barren wasteland. And it's getting worse thanks to their meddlesome owner who one would think might have learned something about baseball after being in the game this long. If anything, the Astros should be trying to add prospects to fortify their organization. Instead, they deal one away for a pitcher who's at the end of the line.

The Yankees get 2B Matt Cusick in this deal. Cusick is probably not more than a marginal prospect. He's had a decent year at LoA Lexington. Cusick's ceiling is probably a big league backup infielder, and he might not even be that. But at worst, he's looking like a good organizational player, and guys like that actually have value even if they never get past AAA. From that standpoint, this deal is another win for the Yankees. Meanwhile, the best news for Astros fans is that the Houston Rockets are a pretty good basketball team.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/30/08

THE TRADE THAT MUST BE MADE

The defending champion Boston Red Sox are in trouble. There's simply no question in my mind that the Manny Ramirez situation is now beyond repair and he needs to be dealt immediately.

Popular opinion is that the Red Sox should hold onto Manny for what they hope is another spot in the post-season and a chance to grab their third World Series championship in the last five years. Or their third in the last 90 years for those who can't stand the Red Sox. I'm an unabashed fan of this team, so one might think I'd be all for keeping Ramirez until the season's over, in hopes that his production outweighs the other issues. After watching their last several games, I'm now convinced that the Red Sox will not make the playoffs if they fail to get Manny out of Boston as quickly as possible.

The Red Sox are completely devoid of their usual spirit right now. For all their talent, they're actually pretty lousy at this point. And there's no question that this all revolves around Manny Ramirez. He's been in the middle of every problem the team has had this season. The lowlights include a dugout row with the always intense Kevin Youkilis, an altercation with the team's 60+ year old traveling secretary over some comp tickets, and Manny's public comments regarding his future with the team that managed to offend the entire organization.

That's just the off the field stuff. On the field, he's flat out dogging it. He's been jogging to first base on ground balls and his play in the outfield has been pathetic. In the past, Manny could always rely on his teammates to defend him publicly. Now, even David Ortiz, his best friend on the team, has been reduced to saying all the right things, but it's apparent to anyone listening he's just offering require lip service.

Manny Ramirez is a great player. He's got Hall of Fame credentials if he never plays another game, and despite the advancing years and a not so athletic body, Manny can still rake with the best, especially when it counts. But he's outlived his usefulness with the Red Sox, and now he needs to go. Not at the end of the season, but right now.

I'm pretty sure Theo Epstein and the Red Sox brain trust feel the same way, and that's why I'll predict that if Ramirez will be wearing another uniform at this time next week.

DONE DEAL #1

First, the Yankees swap with the Pirates. The Yankees gave up a quartet of prospects for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. I don't think this deal is as awful for Pittsburgh as most believe, but it's still a clear win for the Yankees.

Nady has played over his head this season for the Pirates. He's just not this good and I fully expect his production to drop as he moves to the AL East. He'll be facing tougher pitching down the stretch. He's still a nice add for the Yankees, but I actually feel Marte is the more important acquisition. Marte can not only excel as a situational lefty, he's shown he's entirely capable of being a very strong seventh or eighth inning setup type, and he can also close in a pinch. The New York bullpen, a real concern when they moved Joba Chamberlain to the rotation, is now an unquestioned strength.

The Pirates got four players in this deal. Jose Tabata is the centerpiece. His stock has tumbled this year as he's shown some real immaturity playing in AA at Trenton. Tabata's numbers are lousy, his conditioning has been criticized and he's had at least two incidents that cast him in a bad light. The good news is that Tabata is still just 19 years old, and he's got talent. But he's not showing much pop in his bat and there are definite question marks now arising about Tabata that weren't previously there.

Jeffrey Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf and Dan McCutchen are the three pitchers obtained by the Pirates in this trade. Ohlendorf probably has the highest ceiling of the three, with some legit potential as a late inning reliever. Karstens is a back of the rotation type, and I'll say McCutchen is probably about the same.

The consensus is that the Yankees made the Pirates the best offer, so they took it. They shouldn't have. The team sucks again, they don't have much in the way of high end prospects and they could have kept Nady through next season for a very reasonable salary. I don't think they got killed in this deal because I don't consider Nady a big star, but it's still an indication that the Pirates don't really care about winning.

DONE DEAL #2

What is up with Ned Colletti? The GM of the Dodgers has a thing for middle-aged veterans, doesn't he? The latest senior citizen to make the trek west is Casey Blake, who will turn 35 in August.

Unlike Colletti's inane big money off season signings that have actually hurt the team, this deal is actually not bad at all for the Dodgers. Blake's not a superstar, but he's a clutch performer and fills a big need at 3B. And he didn't cost much in terms of prospects.

Jon Meloan was rated the #8 Dodgers prospect by Baseball America prior to the season, but his stock has fallen substantially. Part of the problem is that the Dodgers decided to make him a starting pitcher despite the fact he clearly seems better suited to bullpen work. It hasn't worked. Meloan struggled all season here in Las Vegas, and his velocity also dropped. Meloan has a flawed delivery and he's an elbow injury waiting to happen pitching multiple innings. The Indians have already moved Meloan back to relief at Buffalo, so maybe he can regain his prospect status in the process.

Carlos Santana is intriguing. Coming into the season, he looked like a catcher with legit big league defensive ability, but a very questionable bat. A good season at Hi-A Inland Empire has changed that thinking somewhat. I'm taking his improvement with a grain of salt, as he put up the numbers in a very hitter-friendly league, but Santana is now a guy to keep an eye on.

I'd rate this as a good deal for both teams. The Dodgers get a 3B they can count on for the playoff drive, and the Indians get a couple of interesting prospects for a veteran who really didn't figure in their future.

DONE DEAL #3

Last but not least, the blockbuster. The Braves sent Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.

First, a quick take on Marek. He was the #6 rated BA prospect in the highly regarded Angels organization, so he's got potential. It appears to be mostly as a bullpen set up type, but considering how valuable those components are these days, Marek is more than just a throw-in.

Kotchman is a terrific defender who will hit for average and his power is increasing. There's no reason Kotchman can't become a perennial .300, 20 HR performer. That's not All Star level, but it's sure solid.

Teixeira is the big bat the Halos have coveted to offer assistance and protection for Vlad Guerrero. At first glance, he's just what the doctor ordered for the Angels attack.

But I actually don't like this deal at all for the Angels and consider it a dumb gamble. Here's why. The Angels were a cinch to win the AL West before making this deal. There's no way anyone in that division even makes a run at them. Teixeira is a free agent at season's end and his asking price will be huge. I'm sure the Angels made this trade with the thought that they'll sign Tex. But what if they don't? If that's the case, they just dealt away a very productive 1B with his best years ahead of him for a guy who could, in effect, be an upgrade for as few as three games, depending on what happens to this team in the playoffs.

Sorry, but that makes no sense to me. I'm putting the check mark next to the Braves on this trade.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/24/08

LATEST ON LIRIANO

Just in case you missed it, here's the line from Tuesday's effort by Francisco Liriano. 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K. That's nine straight wins for Liriano at Rochester and he's allowed a grand total of one run in his last five starts, covering 35 IP.

Yet I still read inane comments from guys who ought to know better, such as ESPN's Rick Sutcliffe, preaching patience and writing that the Twins just don't have a spot for Liriano right now. They don't have a spot for him? Really? The Twins just got swept by the Yankees, and gave up 25 runs in the three losses.

I'm really disappointed that guys with potential clout such as Sutcliffe are refusing to criticize the Twins for what is an obvious and blatant cost-cutting maneuver in keeping Liriano at AAA. They're either not doing their homework or simply don't know any better. Neither excuse is acceptable.

THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS HAVE NO CLUE

Congrats are in order for Nats GM Jim Bowden, who managed to make an already pathetic team even worse thanks to a silly trade with the Diamondbacks. The Nationals decided to ship reliever Jon Rauch off to Arizona for prospect Emilio Bonifacio. This deal makes no sense for Washington.

Rauch has turned himself into a very solid reliever who seems comfortable in any situation. He did a nice job setting up the last couple years for the Nationals and stepped right into the closer role earlier this season when Chad Cordero got hurt. Rauch is also a plus performer from a fiscal standpoint. He's under contract through next season, along with an option for 2010 at less than $2 million. In other words, a quality performer at a bargain price.

As for Bonifacio, he's gotten quite a bit of hype this year as a supposed top prospect. I'm not sure where this started, but I don't think he's anything close to what some people seem to think. Bonifacio has loads of speed, but he's not a great base stealer in terms of percentage. He has no power, and I'm not going to get excited over a .300 BA at Tucson, which is a hitter's heaven. He projects as a possible starter at 2B, although my guess is he'll have more of a career as a utility type player.

This is a really good deal for the Diamondbacks. They picked up a reliable bullpen arm in Rauch who should really help them in their quest for a division title. Rauch won't cost them anything of note in dollars, and they didn't have to overpay in terms of talent to get him. Hats off to 'Zona GM Josh Byrnes for getting this one done. As for the Nationals, it's just one more reason they're doomed to bottom feeder status not only now, but for the foreseeable future.

I'M AN IDIOT

In yesterday's column, I mentioned that I thought Cubs 2B Mike Fontenot was worth grabbing in deep fantasy leagues as he's been very hot lately and figured to be getting the starts against most righties. WRONG! I completely forgot about Alfonso Soriano coming back from his injury, which means Mark DeRosa moves back to his former role as the keystone regular. And that means Fontenot goes back to spending most of his time in the dugout.

RUMOR MILL

The trade deadline is now one week away, and while I believe we've seen the last of the blockbuster deals, there are going to be some small trades made by contenders looking to shore up potential problem areas, particularly where some depth may be needed.

As predicted here earlier, I still don't see the Red Sox trading for a bullpen arm. That belief got fortified considerably Wednesday when Justin Masterson was masterful in a perfect stint against the Mariners. But the Red Sox may very well be about to pull the trigger on a deal with the White Sox that would bring Juan Uribe to Beantown. The Pale Hose want to move Uribe to anyone willing to absorb his salary and won't ask for much in return. Boston needs a backup SS for Jed Lowrie with Julio Lugo sidelined and the team appearing to have pretty much lost faith in Alex Cora.

Speaking of the Mariners, they're reportedly very eager to get Adrian Beltre out of town. In terms of bang for the buck, Beltre has been a monster flop for the M's. In truth, Beltre is a good player. He's not a big BA guy, but he's got good power, ample speed and plays tight defense at the hot corner. But Beltre's incredible 2004 campaign stamped him as a superstar in the minds of the Mariners and they gave him a contract reserved for future Cooperstown residents and Beltre just isn't that level.

My thoughts are that Seattle will have to eat some of Beltre's contract if they're serious about dealing him. If they're willing to do that, he's a valuable trading chip that could bet the Mariners a desperately needed prospect or two. Beltre is a perfect fit for the Twins, and they've got the perfect prospect to deal the Mariners in exciting OF Ben Revere. And the Twins would probably bite if the Mariners are indeed willing to absorb some of the Beltre dollars. Another possibility could still be Milwaukee, as 3B has been a problem for the Brewers all season. But the recent surge of Bill Hall could be changing their mindset.

But the most interesting relocation for Beltre would be a return to the Dodgers. I haven't heard this one mentioned, but why not? Beltre loved playing at Dodgers Stadium, the team has the prospects to effect a trade and they could really use a guy like Beltre at 3B. No knock on the kids that have manned that spot throughout the season, but Beltre would be a huge upgrade. I really feel as though LA would win their division if they could this type of deal happen!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/23/08

TRADE TALK

Time to weigh in on a couple more deals that have transpired over the last several days. I'll start with the Phillies-A's swap involving Joe Blanton and then move on to yesterday's trade between the Padres and Astros with Randy Wolf changing uniforms.

The Phillies lost out on the CC Sabathia rental sweepstakes. I guess they felt they had to do something, so they opted to give up way too much for Blanton, who's nothing more than a back of the rotation innings eater. Blanton was overhyped from the get go after being drafted in the first round of the 2002 draft. I've got plenty of respect for A's GM Billy Beane, but it's also a fact that too many baseball analysts fall all over themselves at every prospect Beane goes after.

Blanton has never been anything overwhelming at any level as a pro. Good enough, but hardly great. My first in person look at Blanton came when he threw at Cashman Field while a member of the A's Sacramento AAA affiliate, and he was then what he is now. Sturdy, gritty and smart enough to get by without anything in his arsenal that's dominating. That's been good enough for him to chisel out mostly average numbers in a great pitchers park in Oakland. I wouldn't say this bodes well for him throwing in that bandbox in Philly.

Had the Phillies parted with a cheap package including perhaps one decent prospect and a couple of organizational types, I might understand better what they're doing. Blanton is an upgrade at the back of the rotation from the eminently hittable Adam Eaton. But he's at best a #4 starter, and there's no way I part with the trio the Phils sent Oakland's way in this deal. 2B Adrian Cardenas and LHP Josh Outman are high-end prospects, and OF Matt Spencer remains intriguing, although his pro numbers to date aren't impressive.

Cardenas is a steal for the A's. He's making nice strides following a great high school career in Miami, and with Mark Ellis likely out of Oakland by next season, the keystone position should be in the hands of Cardenas by the 2010 season. He was the #2 rated prospect in the Philly organization prior to this season and he's performed nicely at High-A.

Outman began the season as the #4 Phillies prospect. The lefty did some good work at AA Reading, and has a good chance to get a big league look sometime in 2009. Outman projects as a #3 starter down the road.

As for Spencer, he's somewhat of a disappointment so far after being taken in the third round of the '07 draft. His stock has therefore dropped, but he's still an interesting player, as the power tool is there. If he can figure out the strike zone, Spencer could still have a bright future.

It's my opinion that the Phillies either panicked after losing out to the Brewers for Sabathia, or they're seeing something in Blanton that I'm not. Regardless, I think they gave up WAY too much and I love this deal for the A's.

Next up, a mostly nothing deal between the Padres and Astros. Randy Wolf can't get through a full season without either getting hurt or slamming into the proverbial wall at mid-season. Wolf is right in typical form this year. He started off pitching really well, but has come unhinged over the last several weeks. In his last seven starts, Wolf has a nasty 6.94 ERA and a close to disastrous 1.91 WHIP.

The 'Stros didn't give up much for Wolf. Chad Reineke is a fringe big league prospect who probably ends up as no more than a middle inning type who bounces between the bigs and the bushes. He's been stalled at AAA Round Rock with very ordinary numbers.

I'd give the Astros the edge in this deal as Wolf is at least a proven big leaguer who can be pretty effective in spurts. I doubt that will ever be said about Reineke.

Quick question. I'm not exactly bullish on anything the Astros have done since Ed Wade took over the puppet reigns as their GM. But can anyone explain to me just what the hell Kevin Towers is doing in San Diego? Seriously, every time this team makes any kind of move the first word that comes to my mind is "huh?"

FANTASY FODDER

If you play in a deep mixed league, the following players are worth grabbing right now if available. None of them are world beaters, all of them are useful.

Joel Hanrahan will probably get the first opportunity for the saves Jon Rauch will leave behind in Washington. Rauch was traded Wednesday, heading off to Arizona to fortify the Diamondbacks bullpen. I'll cover that trade tomorrow. Meanwhile, it looks like Hanrahan gets first dibs as closing for the Nats. He's the most prototypical closer on the staff, as he's got the power heater, and he's been pretty solid lately. Saul Rivera and Luis Ayala could be in the mix. But the fact Rivera pitched the eighth inning Wednesday at San Francisco with the Nats down multiple runs is an indicator he's staying in a setup role. As for Ayala, he's been pretty lousy and has yet to approach the level he displayed before his assorted injuries. So it looks like Hanrahan's job to lose.

Willie Harris is on a huge roll for the Nationals. He's 28/76 over the last month with five long balls and Harris has excellent speed. Add in the fact the Nats have a load of injuries and Harris has 2B/3B/OF eligibility and he's a must grab in any deep format. Ride him while he's hot.

Cubs 2B Mike Fontenot is now getting most of the starts vs. righties and is worth an end of the roster spot in deep leagues. Fontenot has shown surprising power and he's hit .353 over roughly the last month. Considering the general lack of depth at MI this year, he's a notable scrap heap possibility.

Catchers are always in demand, especially since even the best starters have to sit once or twice a week. That makes surging Mets C Ramon Castro worth monitoring. He's starting to get more playing time of late, and he's putting up some serious numbers when in the lineup. If you're stuck for production behind the dish, Castro could help alleviate the problem.

Finally, there's old pro Eddie Guardado, whose name keeps popping up in trade rumors. He's of little fantasy use as a lefty setup man pitching the eighth inning, but if ends up in St. Louis, he might also end up closing. The Redbirds are really hurting for a ninth inning guy right now, and Everyday Eddie could get a chance to close there if a deal gets made. Keep an eye out to see where he ends up.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/22/08

THE MINNESOTA TWINS ARE FULL OF CRAP

Sorry, but there's simply no other way to phrase it. Acting under the assumption that the brain trust operating the Minnesota Twins aren't just plain stupid, it's blatantly obvious why they're keeping the exceptionally talented Francisco Liriano in Rochester. It's not exactly a secret that the Twins are all about money, and are satisfied with just maintaining respectability on the field. They do just enough to make sure they don't stink, but always manage to avoid spending the necessary dollars to win. The fact they're in contention again this year is more by accident than design.

I'll explain in just a little bit why the Twins are lying through their teeth about why they've still got Liriano pitching to AAA hitters. First, let's examine the case for Liriano being with the parent team. We already know that Liriano is a great pitcher. In 2006, he absolutely dominated at the highest level. 12-3, 2.16. A 1.00 WHIP. 144 K's in only 121 IP. He may very well have been the best pitcher in all of baseball for most of that season. So there's simply no doubting what he's capable of doing.

Unfortunately, Liriano also blew out his elbow along the way and ended up missing the 2007 season. He managed to get enough people out in this season's spring training to earn a spot on the parent team's roster coming out of camp. But virtually every spring training scouting report said that Liriano wasn't really ready and needed more rehab time. His fastball wasn't moving and he seemed to not want to throw his breaking pitches. Clearly, Liriano wasn't right, but the Twins threw him to the wolves and watched him get lit up. Thus, there were no complaints from anyone when Liriano got sent out for minor league work.

The assumption was that when and if Liriano got it back together he'd be quickly promoted and given back his spot in the Twins rotation. That time arrived a couple of weeks ago, but thus far the phone in Rochester hasn't rung. Liriano is now totally dominating the International League. His pitching line for his last four starts reads as follows: 28 IP, 17 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 32 K.

Numbers like those Liriano is posting would be enough to warrant a recall even if he'd never pitched a major league inning in his life. The fact that this was arguably the best pitcher in the game in 2006 makes the Twins refusal to call him back to the big club downright absurd...until we see how keeping him in Rochester might save skinflint Carl Pohlad a few bucks in arbitration money next season.

Right now, Francisco Liriano has two years and 45 days of major league service time. Most players need three full years to qualify for salary arbitration. But the top 17% of those players with between two and three years of service time qualify as what is known as "Super Twos." Once Liriano qualifies for arbitration, the Twins will have to pay him much more than he's making right now. Thus, the longer they keep him down on the farm, the less chance Liriano has of being one of those Super Twos, and the Twins get him for 2009 for next to nothing in terms of dollars.

Make no mistake, the 2009 bucks are the ONLY reason Francisco Liriano is not pitching in the major leagues right now. His agent knows this and is investigating the plausibility of filing a grievance against the Twins with the Players Association. My guess is that the Twins will recall Liriano within 24 hours of a grievance being filed and will then claim that they were just making sure he was ready. In other words, another lie.

Anyone who believes the Twins claim that they just don't need Liriano right now is either dumb or gullible. Liriano is a potential staff ace. He's good enough right now to start for any team in the major leagues. He's certainly good enough to be ahead of such notables as Nick Blackburn, Livan Hernandez and Glenn Perkins. He's also better than Kevin Slowey and at least on a par with Scott Baker. Those are the present Minnesota starters. The Twins claim otherwise, but the numbers don't lie. Check them for yourself. Blackburn is a good looking rookie, but the better offenses have hammered him. Hernandez is nothing more than an innings eater and his ratios, not to mention his ERA, are pretty horrendous. Perkins is benefiting from an unusually fortunate opposing BA on balls put into play. The manure coming out of the mouths of Twins management is laughable to anyone willing to do a minimal amount of research.

I really feel as though Liriano has a completely justifiable case against the Twins and I hope his agent follows through on the threat to file a grievance. Owners like Carl Pohlad are a blight on the game and anything that exposes his type is okay with me.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/21/08

SECOND HALF PREDICTIONS, PART TWO

The National League is clearly the second-rate outfit in the bigs. Another All-Star game loss, and more significantly, the NL got absolutely crushed once again in interleague play. But the bottom line is that they still get four teams into the playoffs and one of them will have the opportunity to grab the brass ring in the 2008 World Series. Here's how I see the balance of the campaign unfolding.

The NL East has a great shot to be a thrilling three-team chase to the finish line. As the rosters stand at this point, I think the Mets are the least likely to finish on top. The starting pitching should be good enough, but there are gaping holes elsewhere. The Mets have some real defensive issues, especially at the two corner outfield spots, and I'm also not sold on their bullpen. The Marlins have lived off the long ball all year and they're a phenomenal success story. But the staff is suspect, I don't like their defense and the lack of experience figures to be a stumbling block. That leaves the Phillies as my favorite to capture this sector. They're far from perfect to be sure. But they've got some monster second-half split offensive performers and loads of quality depth.

The NL Central is where the real action is. Right now, the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals are playing the best ball in the league. I don't know how the Redbirds are doing it. The pitching staff is just not very good and it's testament to some great managing by Tony LaRussa that they're in this thing. I can't see it lasting all year, but if Chris Carpenter can contribute over the last six weeks or so, maybe they can pull it off. But the reality is the other two contenders are better. Both the Cubs and Brewers have dynamic offenses and ample starting pitching. Each team has questions in the bullpen as well. I'm going with the Cubs to win it by a whisker, but won't be surprised if Milwaukee edges them for the title.

The NL West stinks. Arizona and LA are the best of this bad lot, and both have loads of problems. The Diamondbacks aren't much offensively and the bullpen is beginning to wear down after doing surprisingly well for a few months. The Dodgers have become a better team since they lost Juan Pierre to injury and reduced playing time for Andruw Jones. That is not surprising news. I give LA a slim edge here as I believe they have a deeper staff and perhaps the better manager. Neither team is a legitimate playoff squad, but one of them has to make it.

Mark me down for the Phillies, Cubs and Dodgers as division winners, with the Brewers nailing down the Wild Card berth.

I'm back on Tuesday with some thoughts on what is turning into a pitifully laughable, yet not at all surprising fiasco involving one of the cheapest outfits in the game.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/18/08

SECOND HALF PREDICTIONS

I can be guilty of getting a little over the top at times when it comes to baseball. It's by far my favorite sport from a strictly fan standpoint, and I'll admit that a meaningless game between the Pirates and Rockies can easily hold my interest. That's how much I love the game.

But there's no reason to resort to phony hype when it comes to getting geared up at the prospect of some phenomenal divisional races taking place over the next ten weeks. It just doesn't get much better than it is right now for big league baseball fans, and it's so good that I'm expecting even the casual fans to have more than a passing interest as things continue to heat up. The fact we're seeing some real trades of substance well before the deadline just adds to the excitement.

It's my job to make predictions as to what's going to happen, so my columns today and tomorrow are all about which teams I expect to come out on top in their respective races.

I'll start in the AL East, where the Red Sox managed to sneak past the amazing Rays on the final day of action prior to the break. Tampa Bay has an excellent chance to reclaim the top perch this weekend, as they're back home while the Bosox have a difficult set at Anaheim. But Boston remains the team to beat in this sector and I'm confident they'll end finishing on top. The impending return of David Ortiz is huge, and I believe the dicey bullpen will get things together down the stretch. Most importantly, the Red Sox are the most dominant team in the division. They've got a vastly superior run differential as compared to the Rays, and they're clearly at an advantage in terms of big game experience. Tampa Bay has the pitching to hang in, however, and I don't expect them to fall out of the race. As for the Yankees, there are just too many ifs in the starting rotation, and they've got some real injury issues as well. It looks to me as though the amazing run of consecutive post-season appearances by the Yanks will finally come to an end.

The White Sox are the team to beat in the AL Central. They have the most reliable starting pitching, a deep and talented bullpen and a daunting attack that actually figures to get better over the next few weeks. Minnesota is a legit dark horse, however, as they've got a great skipper in Ron Gardenhire and a very sound fundamental squad. But the Twins won't add anyone in a trade, and for the life of me, I cannot believe they haven't recalled Francisco Liriano yet. He's dominating at AAA and is the best pitcher in the organization, their one legit #1. Scott Baker is a star on the rise and I like the Slowey-Perkins-Blackburn trio. But Livan Hernandez is terrible, and keeping Liriano in the minors is just plain stupid. The Tigers have all kinds of offense, but the pitching is unreliable beyond Justin Verlander, and their lack of reliable arms will doom them in the long run.

The Angels are going to win the AL West. The only thing th at could do them in would be a rash of injuries. Barring that, they have a terrific staff, they play solid defense, and the offense, while still lacking power, is better than average. Oakland has enough to hang in, but I worry about their bullpen and the offense is pretty shaky. The Rangers have a great offense, probably the best in baseball, and it gets even better shortly as injured Hank Blalock returns to play 3B. But Texas cannot pitch at all, and they're not very good defensively. Plus, they figure to wear down playing so many lengthy games in that brutal heat.

When the dust clears at the beginning of October, I've got the Red Sox, White Sox and Angels holding up as division champs. And I'm going to forecast that Tampa Bay actually pulls off the miracle and makes the playoffs as the wild card.

The National League looks tougher to call in my opinion. But I'll give it my best shot in tomorrow's piece!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/11/08

RON WASHINGTON IS AN IDIOT

Well, not really. Actually, Ron Washington has done a nice job managing the Texas Rangers this season. He nearly got fired when the team got off to a terrible start, but he's managed to lead the Rangers all the way to the right side of .500 despite no pitching and a lousy defense. So, kudos to the Texas skipper for that accomplishment.

But Washington has to be held responsible for a ridiculous bit of strategy in the Thursday night loss to the Angels. His "by the book" decision to have Ian Kinsler bunt in the bottom of the 11th inning was flat out moronic and may very well have cost the Rangers the game.

Here's the situation. Texas is trailing 11-10 going to the home half of the 11th. The #8 hitter in their lineup is leading off, and gets on against Halos closer Francisco Rodriguez. The #9 hitter is up next, so it's a no-brainer to sacrifice. The Rangers catch a break when the Angels botch the play defensively, and now Texas has runners at first and second, nobody out. Kinsler steps in, and there's no doubt in my mind Washington will eschew bunting, as Kinsler is the hottest hitter in the game right now. A 22-game hitting streak intact, and he's at the top of the leader board in virtually every offensive category. There's no way I'm taking the bat out of this guy's hands, as he might just win the game with one swing. But that's exactly what Ron Washington did, as he incredibly had Kinsler sacrificing. First pitch, he pops up for an easy out, and the next hitter knocks into a game-ending double play.

We'll never know what would have happened had Kinsler swung away. But to deprive him of the opportunity and allow the Angels to get the hottest hitter in the league right back into the dugout with no chance to do some real damage is inane.

I can guarantee you Washington will get ripped to shreds by the fans and media on this one, and in this case it's completely deserved. It's probably the single dumbest managerial decision I've seen all season.

AMAZING METS

Just in case you missed it, the Mets are on a roll heading toward the break. And two of their hottest producers are players who are probably getting overlooked in almost every fantasy league.

First, there's Endy Chavez. His 11-game hitting streak ended Thursday as Chavez made an out in his only plate appearance. But Endy is still 18/45 of late, and give his ability to steal the occasional base, he's worth tracking.

Then there's the amazing Fernando Tatis. This guy is literally back from the baseball grave. Tatis was an emerging star in the late 1990's, but he just seemed to lose it in a big way, and eventually found himself completely out of the game in 2004 and 2005. The past two seasons saw Tatis get a cup of coffee with the Orioles, but most of his time was in the minors.

When Tatis got recalled by the Mets from New Orleans earlier this year, it barely got any notice, and with good reason, as he figured to be little more than a fill-in for the Mets. But lo and behold, Fernando Tatis is not only playing pretty regularly, he's hitting the daylights out of the ball. Since June 24, Tatis has gone 18/42 and he's flashing some substantial power as well.

I would definitely consider rostering either of these players in any deep league. Chavez can help with BA and speed, Tatis in the production categories. Plus, with the injuries to Moises Alou and Ryan Church, it appears that both players will be playing with a good deal of frequency. Tatis in particular is intriguing as he's a streak hitter and he's currently on fire.

VACATION TIME

The upcoming All-Star break means a few days off for this observer, at least as far as this column is concerned. I'll return next Thursday as the teams get back into action. Meanwhile, have fun with the big exhibition game that insanely rewards the winner with the home field edge in the World Series.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/10/08

SCRAP HEAP DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH

One of my personal fantasy baseball rules is to get the most plate appearances possible. Accomplish that feat, and you're almost certain to always contend in whatever type of league you're involved with. The rationale is pretty obvious. The more chances you get, the better the opportunity to cash in. Simple enough.

That's why I have trouble comprehending how any regular leadoff hitter can be sitting in the free agent pool in any reasonably deep league. This makes no sense at all to me. If nothing else, leadoff hitters are good for scoring runs, which is always the most overlooked category in typical 5x5 leagues.

That brings me to Atlanta rookie OF Gregor Blanco, who's widely available and has some real value in any deep league format. Blanco is hitting first for the Braves, and he's playing every day. He doesn't have any power, but Blanco has the capability of hitting for a decent if unspectacular BA. If you have the flexibility to platoon him as a fifth or sixth OF, even better. The main thing about Blanco is that he's going to get his owners solid production in runs scored, and he's also a good base stealer.

How about a lightning in a bottle candidate? These are players who probably don't offer a great deal of long term upside, but if you can isolate them in favorable situations, they're well worth owning for as long as they stay hot. As an example, owners who took a stab at Milwaukee 3B Russell Branyan reaped a quick bonanza. The streaky Branyan went wild for a few weeks, and anyone who rostered him garnered some monster power numbers along the way. Branyan is now in the midst of a regression to his norm, and his value is plummeting. But just getting on board with a hot hitter for a couple weeks can make a huge difference when it comes to contending for a league championship.

That brings me to Wes Bankston. The Oakland 1B/DH is getting a shot to play virtually every day right now, and I think he's worth pursuing short term. Bankston was once a pretty hot prospect in the Tampa Bay organization. His progress stalled thanks to a slew of injuries, and he was probably a little over hyped at any rate. But Bankston has done some good work since getting called up by the A's, and I think he's worth a speculative pickup in hopes of reaping a quick reward.

Bankston is 10/30 since going into the A's lineup. He's got decent power and I'm liking the fact he's making regular contact, with only three whiffs to date. I don't see Bankston as a long term producer of note. He probably projects as no more than a .260, 20 HR type playing all the time over a full season. But for the time being, he's hitting fifth for the A's. That means lots of RBI opportunities, and he's taking advantage of his chance presently. Bankston may hit the skids not too far down the road, but I'd take a chance at scoring a couple weeks of good stats by picking him up now if you're in need of a spare CI.

Finally, a veteran reliever who's actually having a terrific year and suddenly offers big short term value. That's Octavio Dotel of the White Sox. Dotel has been pretty amazing this season, with a ridiculously high K/IP rate. He's actually been worth owning just for his K numbers, but now he's got a chance to add a few saves with Bobby Jenks off to the DL for a brief time. I would think Jenks will be back right after the break, but there's no guarantee he stays healthy. Dotel is better suited to the ninth inning duties than Scott Linebrink. And after his lights out door slam Wednesday night against the Royals, I suspect Dotel might be jumping past Linebrink for save opportunities till Jenks returns. Waste no time in rostering Dotel, even if it's for no more than a week or two. But even if the save chances don't come, he could still be of more benefit than a soft #5 fantasy starter who doesn't get big strikeout numbers or is an ERA/WHIP liability.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 07/09/08

BREAKING DOWN THE LATEST DEAL

It certainly didn't take long for the Cubs to react to the big swap by their divisional rivals in Milwaukee. The Cubbies swung a six-player swap with Oakland on Tuesday. Here's my breakdown on a deal that makes sense for both teams but will favor the A's in the long run. First, the principals involved. The A's sent pitchers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin to Wrigley for pitcher Sean Gallagher, catcher Josh Donaldson, plus OF's Eric Patterson and Matt Murton.

Rich Harden is obviously the centerpiece of the deal. Harden has dynamic stuff and is a truly dominating pitcher when he's right. The problem for Harden has been staying healthy, and because of the inordinate amount of time he's missed with injuries, he's now basically a five or six inning pitcher. Once Harden gets to about 90 pitches, he's done.

If Harden is able to go out every fifth day and get the Cubs that quality start, they're in great shape. But I'm not sure he'll be able to do that. Harden's velocity fell off in his last two starts, and this has been a portent of things to come as far as his past is concerned. There's a load of risk involved here for the Cubs, and they'd better be keeping their fingers crossed that Harden isn't closing in on yet another trip to the DL.

Gaudin is nothing special, but he's very useful. That's because he's got the ability to serve as a spot starter, while also grabbing innings out of the bullpen. The Cubs pen has been overworked throughout the first half, as manager Lou Piniella has had a quick trigger with virtually the entire staff. Getting a versatile pitcher like Gaudin was a wise move. His numbers might not be sensational, but Gaudin's presence may end up saving the arms of a more important reliever, such as Carlos Marmol.

The primary reason I probably like this deal a little more for the A's is Sean Gallagher, who I feel has a fairly high ceiling. I don't project Gallagher as an ace in the making, but he's a #3 at the least, and perhaps could eventually become a solid #2 starter. Gallagher has fly ball tendencies, which plays well for him pitching in that spacious Oakland ballpark. He's impressed me with his K/IP ratio and I feel he's taken some really positive forward strives this season. The A's are in the hunt in the AL playoff chase, and Gallagher is a nice addition with plenty of potential.

Eric Patterson intrigues me as well. He's gotten a bit of a bad rap because of his older brother Corey, but they're really not the same player. Eric already has a better idea of the strike zone, and while he was a bit overmatched in his big league cameo with the Cubs this year, he's got a good chance to be a regular by next season. Patterson has all kinds of speed and occasional pop, and he's at the stage now where he just needs to refine a few things. Nice pickup for the A's.

Josh Donaldson has stalled badly this season, but has to still be on the screen as a future big league catcher. Certainly his poor offensive numbers at Low-A this year are a big concern. He should be hitting way more at that level than he has. But he was the top position prospect in the Northwest League last year, so he may just be going through some growing pains as a hitter. I'm not going to rule out his chances of being a big league catcher off two bad months, and if he gets himself back on track, Donaldson could turn this trade into a blowout win for the A's.

Matt Murton is the final piece of the puzzle. Murton is a pretty good hitter who I feel still projects as a valuable fourth or fifth outfielder who can thrive as the righty-hitting part of a platoon. There was basically no room for Murton with the Cubs, but he's got a chance to serve more purpose with the A's, as they should immediately garner some benefit from his bat coming off the bench.

I'd rate this trade as roughly even for the rest of the current campaign. I'm not convinced Harden can get the Cubs the 15 or so starts they're hoping for as I'm worried about that recent drop in velocity. As for the overall grade, I really like this deal for the A's, as I'm higher than most on Gallagher.