SECOND HALF PREDICTIONS, PART TWO
The National League is clearly the second-rate outfit in the bigs. Another All-Star game loss, and more significantly, the NL got absolutely crushed once again in interleague play. But the bottom line is that they still get four teams into the playoffs and one of them will have the opportunity to grab the brass ring in the 2008 World Series. Here's how I see the balance of the campaign unfolding.
The NL East has a great shot to be a thrilling three-team chase to the finish line. As the rosters stand at this point, I think the Mets are the least likely to finish on top. The starting pitching should be good enough, but there are gaping holes elsewhere. The Mets have some real defensive issues, especially at the two corner outfield spots, and I'm also not sold on their bullpen. The Marlins have lived off the long ball all year and they're a phenomenal success story. But the staff is suspect, I don't like their defense and the lack of experience figures to be a stumbling block. That leaves the Phillies as my favorite to capture this sector. They're far from perfect to be sure. But they've got some monster second-half split offensive performers and loads of quality depth.
The NL Central is where the real action is. Right now, the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals are playing the best ball in the league. I don't know how the Redbirds are doing it. The pitching staff is just not very good and it's testament to some great managing by Tony LaRussa that they're in this thing. I can't see it lasting all year, but if Chris Carpenter can contribute over the last six weeks or so, maybe they can pull it off. But the reality is the other two contenders are better. Both the Cubs and Brewers have dynamic offenses and ample starting pitching. Each team has questions in the bullpen as well. I'm going with the Cubs to win it by a whisker, but won't be surprised if Milwaukee edges them for the title.
The NL West stinks. Arizona and LA are the best of this bad lot, and both have loads of problems. The Diamondbacks aren't much offensively and the bullpen is beginning to wear down after doing surprisingly well for a few months. The Dodgers have become a better team since they lost Juan Pierre to injury and reduced playing time for Andruw Jones. That is not surprising news. I give LA a slim edge here as I believe they have a deeper staff and perhaps the better manager. Neither team is a legitimate playoff squad, but one of them has to make it.
Mark me down for the Phillies, Cubs and Dodgers as division winners, with the Brewers nailing down the Wild Card berth.
I'm back on Tuesday with some thoughts on what is turning into a pitifully laughable, yet not at all surprising fiasco involving one of the cheapest outfits in the game.
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