Dave Cokin

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/30/08

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 06/30/08

WHAT CAN THIS MAN POSSIBLY BE THINKING?

Ken Griffey went 1/5 Sunday as the Reds defeated the Indians. Junior is now on a 2/24 skid and he’s all the way down to a meager .234 BA with only nine HR. Yet there he is, still hitting third for the Reds on a regular basis. There’s no question that Griffey is an all-time great who’s a cinch first ballot Hall of Famer. But the numbers that will get Griffey to Cooperstown have already been registered. Fact is, he’s not so hot anymore.

So why does Reds skipper Dusty Baker stubbornly refuse to move Griffey out of the all important #3 hole in the Cincy lineup? The answer is pretty clear, as it’s not like this is something new for Dusty. He loves his veterans and prefers to live in the past rather than recognize the present.

I can’t see Baker being back at the Reds helm next season. I’d have never given him the job in the first place, as I’ve long regarded Baker as one of the worst managers I’ve ever seen. He might run a great clubhouse and bring some positive intangibles to the position, but he’s a brutally inept game manager. The bad news for Dusty is that Walt Jocketty is now the GM, and I would strongly doubt that he’ll be bringing Baker back for another year. Jocketty spent all those years running the show in St. Louis with Tony LaRussa calling the shots in the dugout. Comparing LaRussa to Baker is akin to watching a thoroughbred horse run six furlongs, and then viewing a donkey covering the same course. The difference is unmistakable.

SURGING VETERANS

Tough times in 2008 for a couple of productive performers named Jim Thome and Adrian Beltre. But both may be awakening from virtual season-long slumbers.

Thome missed some action this past week as the White Sox couldn’t use the DH while they were in LA. But Thome went deep on Sunday against the Cubs, and he’s starting to get pretty hot. Thome is now 12/36 recently with three HR. He’s also scored 12 runs in driven in eight more in that stretch.

Beltre also went long on Sunday, and the Mariners 3B is now on a 16/37 hot streak. He also has a couple of steals in that run, indicating he’s feeling pretty healthy right now.

Neither Thome nor Beltre figure to be great assets in the batting average category, but they can make hay in other categories. Thome is in the middle of a very potent White Sox lineup, so his power and production could be very valuable. As for Beltre, he’s a good bet to contribute in four categories, particularly given his history of strong second halves.

Thome and Beltre aren’t likely to be available in any deep leagues, but both players look like viable trade targets that might not cost all that much. Explore the possibilities.

NOTABLE CALLUP

I’ll start with Texas 1B Chris Davis, who’s supposedly just up for a little bit. But with Hank Blalock unable to shake the wrist issues that are keeping him sidelined, Davis may stick around for awhile. Davis is a pure power hitter. He projects as a future 40 HR producer, especially playing for the Rangers. Davis probably won’t be a big BA type. He’s got a long swing and he’ll get nothing but air on a frequent basis, especially early on as his strike zone recognition isn’t the best. But his power is undeniable, and that makes him a great keeper league grab. As for annual leagues, I wouldn’t use a top waiver claim on Davis, as the Rangers have stated he’s going back down once Blalock is ready to play. But if you can Davis cheap, he’ll be worth using against righties for his HR potential.

The Rangers have also brought up pitcher Warner Madrigal. He’s not worth chasing right now, as Madrigal will be used exclusively in middle relief for the Rangers. But there’s a good chance he’ll be closing for Texas by next season, as that’s what the converted position player has been doing down on the farm. Madrigal has some nice numbers at AA/AAA this season, including 14 saves. Put him on your watch list as I would think he could get a chance to close some games late this year, especially if C.J. Wilson can’t shake his erratic tendencies.

Finally, there’s Roger Bernadina, who takes over in Washington’s OF for the injured Lastings Milledge. Bernadina will likely get most of the starts the next couple weeks at a minimum, and maybe longer depending on how long Milledge has to reside on the DL. Bernadina probably won’t hit for much of an average. But he does have quite a bit of speed, so he could be a source of some cheap steals for anyone hurting in the category.

Feedback and questions are always encouraged. Leave yours here if that function is available, or drop me a line at: espnradio1100@gmail.com

Tags: Baker, Beltre, Bernadina, Blalock, Davis, Griffey, Jocketty, LaRussa, Madrigal, Milledge, Thome, Wilson

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/27/08

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 06/29/08

PITCHERS ON THE RISE

There were some terrific pitching performances turned in Thursday, and I wanted to focus on a quartet of hurlers who got gold stars for yesterday’s work. Plus, in each case, I have to believe each member of this group has a good chance to be really productive as the season wears on. And in each case, it’s a pitcher who’s currently retaining free agent status in at least a decent percentage of deep fantasy leagues. But I’m pretty sure that’s not going to be the case for much longer.

I’ll start with Matt Garza, who had a great game for the Rays as they once again rolled past the Marlins. Garza was close to perfect in his eight innings of work. The only hit against him was a solo blast by Hanley Ramirez, and Garza racked up 10 K’s in this scintillating performance.

Garza has top of the rotation stuff and in the minds of many observers, it’s always been a matter of when rather than if Garza becomes a star attraction. It looks as though the answer has come, as Garza is starting to put together some dominating efforts. Garza’s inconsistency this season can be blamed to some extent on injury, as he opened the season hurt and then got dinged up again a few weeks later. But of late, the Garza I expected to see all along has begun to surface. In his last two starts, he’s gotten the K rate way up, with 18 whiffs recorded in just his last 15 innings. That’s the key stat for Garza. He’s got lots of swings and misses in his arsenal, but even his good earlier efforts this season weren’t seeing him notching strong strikeout numbers. The fact he is now indicates that Garza has found his groove. He’s got a couple of tough assignment coming up, but I’m confident that Garza is going to start amassing some very attractive numbers, and that he’s a must grab in any format where he’s still available.

Wandy Rodriguez was superb Thursday night as pitched the Astros past the Rangers. Rodriguez was terrific at home last season, but was an inexplicable disaster on the road. This season, it’s all coming together for the talented Houston southpaw. His overall ERA is now 2.58 following the latest sterling effort. And at home, Rodriguez is more unhittable than ever. He’s got a sensational 1.89 ERA at the Maid, so he’s an automatic start in any home game. Moreover, Wandy has 51 strikeouts in his 59 innings of work.

I don’t see any reason Rodriguez can’t be a plus performer in all four starting pitcher categories the rest of the way. He’s a candidate to have the occasional road meltdown, but his fantasy owners will be able to tolerate those showings as long as he puts up the great lines at home, and Wandy is a great bet to accomplish that.

One of the strongest indicators that a pitcher has arrived is when he can win even without his best stuff. That’s what happened with Scott Baker Thursday. The Twins right-hander was not on top of his game against the Padres, and was hit hard early. But he found a way to settle down, and managed to complete six innings while giving up just three runs. Baker got the win in yet another quality start. He’s one of the best under the radar pitchers in the game right now. Baker has surrendered three or fewer runs in all but one of his starts for the entire season.

It’s additionally notable that Baker is flashing an improved K/IP ratio. On the season, it reads 52/63. That means he’s now at the point where he’s a four-category producer, and that means there’s simply no reason for Scott Baker to be unowned in any deep format.

Finally, there’s Cardinals righty Todd Wellemeyer, who came back from a stint on the sidelines due to some elbow tenderness to smoke the Tigers Thursday in five shutout innings of work. Wellemeyer is the big shocker on this short list. Garza, Rodriguez and Baker have all been well-regarded to some extent prior to their recent breakout showings. But Wellemeyer is a definite surprise.

The reality is that Wellemeyer has been really outstanding this season for St. Louis. Take away the one start where he probably should not have gone because of the bad elbow, and the numbers are startling. 85 IP, 69 hits, just 26 ER, with a nifty 25/65 BB/K ratio. Those are numbers almost any pitcher would be happy with, and I’m convinced after watching Wellemeyer work a few times that he’s not a fluke. So once again, check the wire in your league and see if he’s still out there.

Filling out the rotation with a fourth or fifth fantasy starter who can actually be an asset rather than a stopgap can be the big difference between contending for league title or simply residing in also-ran territory. I’d make the move on any of the pitchers listed here without hesitation.

That’s a wrap for this week. I’ll return Monday with a look at the weekend’s diamond action. In the meantime, feel free to send your comments and questions to me at: espnradio1100@gmail.com

Tags: Baker, Garza, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Wellemeyer

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/26/08

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 06/26/08

THE PIERRE PRINCIPLE

You’re probably familiar with “The Peter Principle” already, and if you’re not, look it up. In baseball, this theory of incompetence can often be found working to near-perfection with managers who insist on putting a speed guy at the top of the order just because he hits mostly singles and steals lots of bases. I’ve always considered this to be mostly a dumb concept, and the aptly named Juan Pierre thus serves as the perfect example of a bad idea put into action.

Pierre has been in the big leagues since 2000. He’s a lifetime .300 hitter and he’s stolen over 400 bases. He’s served almost exclusively as a leadoff hitter with the Rockies, Marlins, Cubs and now the Dodgers. It drives me a little bit nuts that he gets automatically penciled in as the #1 hitter wherever he goes. He’s never belonged in that slot, and he never will.

The argument presented in defense of Pierre leading off is his ability to turn singles into doubles, thus somehow qualifying him as a catalyst who can ignite a big inning. That simply isn’t the case.

My belief has always been that the individual getting the most at bats should be a player who can get on base a high percentage of the time, and who can also produce runs when given the opportunity. Pierre owns a lifetime on-base percentage of .347 and he at .331 over the last four years. That’s just not good enough for the player getting the most AB in a team’s lineup. Pierre doesn’t walk nearly enough to justify his reputation as a rally starter, and he’s hardly the guy you want hitting when there are men on base to bring home.

This is not meant to say that there’s anything wrong with getting a top notch base stealer in the leadoff slot. But that’s a bonus. The fact is that the Oakland A’s will get more overall production hitting Mark Ellis leadoff than the Dodgers will with Pierre. That’s because, despite a mediocre .250 neighborhood BA, Ellis gets on base more frequently than Pierre, and he’s also a better hitter with men on base.

I’m of the opinion that there’s simply no excuse for not putting statistical analysis at work in assembling a daily lineup. I believe in good instincts as much as the next guy, but numbers don’t lie. Giving away outs by sticking with the anachronistic belief that the Juan Pierres of the world are good leadoff hitters are just a little bit clueless. It’s the Pierre Principle at work.

FANTASY FODDER

Some quick hits from fantasy land. Mike Cameron remains available in a high percentage of leagues. Cameron won’t ever win any batting titles, but he’s a valuable fantasy performer. He’s a great bet to whack 25 homers and steal 15-20 bases, plus Cameron will post solid numbers in both runs and RBI. This despite missing the first 25 games of the year while on suspension. The BA won’t likely be pretty, but he’s an asset in the other four 5×5 categories. Cameron is must have material in any deep league, so if he’s still somehow unclaimed in your league, get him in your lineup.

Adam Lind belted a homer for the Blue Jays in their Wednesday loss to the Reds. It looks as though Lind is going to get a chance for regular AB with Cito Gaston at the helm. Right now, Lind is hitting ninth, but he’ll get moved to a more attractive lineup spot if he produces, as the Blue Jays desperately need some sock. Lind has flunked a couple of previous trials, but he’s got the skill set to hit in bigs, and he’s got good power. Put Lind on your radar screen.

Jeff Keppinger has returned from his knee injury and will be the everyday SS for the Reds. Keppinger will likely provide a really nice BA, but not a whole lot more. He’s got negligible power and doesn’t steal many bases. Yet he’s highly recommended by several “experts” at the various fantasy sites. I have no idea why, as he’s a plus performer in only one category. That makes Keppinger a fantasy backup, someone worth owning only if an owner has injuries or is really weak at a specific position. I guess he’s okay as a free agent pickup, but trading for Keppinger seems silly to me. You can probably get the same production out of Joe Inglett as long he’s playing every day for Toronto. The difference is I can almost guarantee Inglett is widely available, and you won’t have to deal to get him.

Finally, some needless advice, but I’ll toss it out anyway. If you still own Bronson Arroyo in hopes he relocates his 2006 level, here’s what you should do. Stop reading this blog immediately, go directly to your fantasy team roster and put Arroyo on waivers. And the next time Bronson gets your attention with a sparkling performance, ignore the temptation and stay as far away from him as possible. While it’s true that Arroyo is very capable of stringing together a handful of good starts, the reality is that when he’s off his game, he gets totally destroyed. In the real baseball world, that one bad start is no big deal. If Arroyo can be decent half the time, he’s an okay fit for the back of a team’s rotation. But because his meltdowns are astonishingly awful for the most part, he’s a massive liability in fantasy baseball. Act accordingly and let someone else pay for the tease next time.

Feel free to leave your feedback right here or fire off an email with your questions and comments to: espnradio1100@gmail.com.

Tags: Arroyo, Cameron, Ellis, Inglett, Keppinger, Lind, Pierre

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/25/08

NEXT UP ON THE FIRING LINE?

It's been a rough run for the skippers lately, with changes made in Seattle and Toronto as well as with the Mets. We've also seen a GM get pink slipped, as Bill Bavasi just lost his gig with the Mariners. These things usually happen in bunches, and I'm pretty sure the guillotine is poised to fall on another suit. All indications are that J.P. Ricciardi is not long for the Blue Jays GM position.

I felt Ricciardi was on the hot seat prior to the season starting. Let's just say he hasn't delivered on his promises in Toronto. When he first got the job, Ricciardi claimed he'd be able to produce a low-cost winner. While it's true the Blue Jays weren't bad playing small ball with the bucks, I'm not one who's going to be overly impressed with okay. I don't think it's that tough to push buttons and produce a middle of the road type team year after year. Winning is another story.

Ricciardi was afforded the opportunity to spend some serious money following the 2006 season, and he basically blew his wad on a closer with one great season in that role under his belt. And when B.J. Ryan subsequently hurt his elbow and was rendered useless in 2007 as the Blue Jays meandered their way through another uneventful year, I marked Ricciardi down as a GM on thin ice coming into this season.

It's gotten worse for Ricciardi. The Blue Jays are in the AL East cellar despite some legit quality pitching. The problem is their offense, and as Ricciardi didn't spend wisely to upgrade the attack, he has to bear the brunt of the blame.

Ricciardi's verbal attack on Adam Dunn last week has a good shot to be the final nail in the coffin. It's one thing to call out one of your own players. Going after someone else's personnel is taboo, and in this case, I would have to say it's largely unfounded. One can only assume Ricciardi reached his conclusions on Dunn not being a great lover of baseball based on conversations he's had with other people. Maybe it's true. But whether it is or it isn't, Ricciardi was way out of line with his commentary.

The hiring of Cito Gaston as the replacement for deposed manager John Gibbons would appear to be another harbinger of things to come. Word is that Gaston was not Ricciardi's choice, and if that's accurate info, it's now just a matter of time before there's a new GM calling the shots in Toronto.

SHEFF BACK WITH A BANG

Gary Sheffield finally got back into action and celebrated his return with a HR as the Tigers lost to the Cardinals Tuesday night. Sheffield is probably a good bet to get hurt again, as the body is starting to fall apart. His poor early season effort off a previous DL stint added to the fact he just hasn't been playing means Sheffield is widely available. If your fantasy team has room for a speculative pickup, here's your guy. I would not drop anyone productive to get him, but on the off chance he manages to stay healthy for even a little bit, the power spike makes tabbing Sheffield worthwhile. Just don't expect the old Sheffield to resurface, and be prepared to cast him aside when the next injury occurs.

SANCHEZ STRIKES AGAIN

Jonathan Sanchez had another terrific outing for the Giants Tuesday night and got the win over the Indians. That's seven out of eight quality starts for the southpaw since he altered his lengthy windup, and the result has been much improved command with no loss of velocity.

Sanchez has always had a live arm, but there was growing doubt he's never get enough control to become a viable force as a starter. It certainly looks as though he's figured things out. He's got great value as a fantasy pitcher as well, thanks to a terrific strikeout rate. Now that he's also becoming an ERA asset, he should be owned in all formats. On the off chance he's available in any deep leagues, get him right away.

JUST A MIRAGE

Don't get fooled by the recent surge from Twins 3B Brian Buscher. He's definitely hot right now, as Buscher is hitting .368 with an amazing 13RBI in just 38 AB since taking over as the primary hot corner starter from Mike Lamb. But there's nothing to indicate this is anything more than a hot run by a mediocre big leaguer. Buscher doesn't have much power or speed and projects as a .260 type. That renders him mostly useless as a fantasy commodity. He's a better defender than Lamb, so I suspect Buscher holds the job for the Twins, but he's not worth of rostering in anything other than deep AL-only leagues.

TROT REDUCED TO CRAWL

Trot Nixon hit fifth for the Mets Tuesday night as they were humiliated at Shea by the lowly Mariners. The result by itself was shocking enough. But beyond that, what the heck is Trot Nixon doing hitting in the #5 hole for any major league team? What, Charlie Manuel doesn't have access to Nixon's baseball card?

Nixon was a solid performer for the Red Sox in the early part of the decade. From 2001-2003, Nixon belted 79 homers and was a bona fide threat against most righty pitchers. He was never a stud vs. southpaws. But on balance, Trot was a really good RF and the fans in Boston liked his style.

That was forever ago. Nixon has been besieged by injuries since his halcyon days, and is no longer a major league caliber player. He has no power, with just three HR in more than 300 AB last season, and he's been simply terrible since getting signed by the Mets. I understand the Mets are short in the OF right now because of injuries. But there's simply no rationale for batting Nixon fifth under any circumstances.

Feel free to add your feedback and ask questions right here or address them to me at:espnradio1100@gmail.com

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/24/08

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 06/24/08

TRADE TALK HEATING UP

I have no idea what the GM’s around the game are talking about, but I know the rumor mill is churning as far as the media and fans are concerned. It’s late June, and that means it’s time to start the buzz about which names will be moving where as the trade talks heat up. This is always more hype than substance, as the true blockbusters are few and far between these days. But it’s still loads of fun to speculate on which stars could be on the move, so I may as well get in on the chatter.

The two biggest names on the burner are without question last year’s AL Cy Young winner and the ‘07 NL runner up for MVP. C.C. Sabathia and Matt Holliday are the hottest commodities possibly up for grabs. Sabathia got off to a terrible start this season, and there was some genuine concern that the workload he accrued last season might have taken its toll. Those worries have been thoroughly dashed, as Sabathia has been rock solid over his last dozen starts. Holliday is not putting up the same power numbers he did a year ago, but all his indicators are in place, meaning it’s likely just a matter of time before he starts sending balls into orbit.

Sabathia is a free agent following this season, and the Yankees will be strong favorites to spend the big bucks and sign him up. It’s almost assured that he won’t be back in Cleveland, although the Indians are putting up the brave front. But the fact is they are long shots to retain Sabathia’s services as his contract demands will be more than the Indians have shown they’re willing to spend. But I’m not sold on the fact Cleveland will deal Sabathia, even though they certainly could use an influx of top talent in their farm system. First off, we’re seeing less teams willing to mortgage the future than we used to, particularly for a short term rental. That clearly limits the number of teams that will line up for a chance to deal for the big southpaw.

Holliday would be a different story as he’s under contract through next season. A team that’s in contention would be far less hesitant to move top prospects armed with the knowledge they’d at least get the rest of this season plus all of next year to make a pennant run with Holliday in the lineup.

As for the Indians and Rockies offering their stars, I suspect both will at least be listening. Cleveland is in contention in the AL Central right now, but they’re incredibly beat up, and their remaining in the race is not an automatic at this point. As for the Rockies, the fact they made it to the World Series gives them a little more freedom to deal a big name like Holliday, as the fan fallout wouldn’t be catastrophic. And if the Rockies were to use the dollars they’re saving on Holliday to sign other stars to long term contracts, it would probably be a good move.

My guess is that Holliday is the more likely player to get moved this season, with the key being his contract already running through 2009. I see Sabathia being a tougher sell. The Indians won’t give him away and I suspect they won’t get what they’re looking for in a deal for the soon to be free agent.

Xavier Nady and Jason Bay of the Pirates are going to get mentioned frequently. But with the Pirates having an actual shot to get to .500, moving both players would be a p.r. nightmare for them. This franchise needs to send a positive sign to their long suffering fans. Bay has rebounded smartly from a poor 2007 campaign, and while Nady has been terrific this year for the Bucs, he’s the far more movable player as the fans won’t be as disenchanted if the Pirates can reap some future rewards in a deal.

The Mariners made a ridiculous deal with the Orioles to obtain Erik Bedard. Seattle is obviously out of the pennant race already, and their farm system is atrocious. But with interim management in place in the wake of the recent firings, I’m not sure we’ll see them doing anything earthshaking. However, there’s no question they should explore all avenues as far as dealing Bedard is concerned. I just don’t know if the temps have the power to make any major moves.

Any team that trades for Ken Griffey is nuts. Junior is one of the all-time greats, but he’s a shadow of his old self at this point. Plus, he can be had for nothing at season’s end as he certainly doesn’t figure to be getting a new contract from the Reds. But no team is going to deal a prospect of note for Griffey, and I doubt the Reds will just give him away. However, there’s another Red who could very well be moved. Adam Dunn is just about done with this franchise, and he’s an ideal DH for an AL team in need of power. And that brings me full circle to the Indians. The poor performance and subsequent injury to Travis Hafner has left a gaping power hole in the Indians lineup. The AL Central is there for the taking. If I’m running the show in Cleveland, I deal for Dunn, keep Sabathia and try for another shot in the AL playoffs. The window for the Indians is starting to close anyway, so why not take a chance and go for it right now?

TWO HEADS ARE NOT BETTER THAN ONE

The Angels are sure to enjoy the luxury of having two starting caliber shortstops on the roster now that Erick Aybar is back from the DL. Maicer Izturis still figures to get a few more starts than Aybar overall, but the bottom line is that is pretty much guaranteed to significantly reduce the fantasy value of both players. Best advice? If you’re in a Yahoo league where you alter the daily lineup right up to game time, try and get both players on your roster if you’ve presently got either Izturis or Aybar. That way you can start the one that’s playing and bench the one that’s not. If that’s not a possibility, you’re going to have to put up with some empty nights when the SS you own is sitting in the bench.

Speaking of shortstops, the Orioles have decided to dump Freddie Bynum and replace him with journeyman Alex Cintron. Cintron is a pretty good hitter, albeit sans much power or speed. But if you’re stuck for a fourth MI, he’s not the world’s worst option and he’s likely available everywhere. Whether or not Cintron can maintain the healthy BA playing every day is questionable as he’s been a utility guy for too long. But I would not be surprised to see a quick spike in his numbers as he’s no doubt excited about getting a chance to now play every day. Cintron might therefore work well as an emergency pickup.

Feedback and questions are encouraged. You can leave yours right here or of that option is not available, drop me a line at:espnradio1100@gmail.com

Tags: Aybar, Bay, Bedard, Bynum, Cintron, Dunn, Griffey, Holliday, Izturis, Nady, Sabathia

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/23/08

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball 06/23/08

MONDAY SLEEPER SEARCH

Time to rundown the possible sleepers who sizzled the past seven days. These players each came through with a week strong enough to earn a Top 50 overall player rating at Yahoo!, while also managing to retain free agency in most deep leagues. In order to keep things organized, I’m going to list them in order with their rating in parentheses next to their name, with comments on each player to follow.

(3) Jeff Baker has actually been hotter much longer than just the past week. Baker is on a 22/50 rampage that includes five HR. He’s also scored 15 runs, driven in 12, and even managed to steal a base. It’s very reminiscent of a monster run Baker put together after being recalled for the final month of the 2006 season.

Based on this four-week surge, Baker would seem to be worth rostering everywhere. But the reality is that it may be all downhill from here for Baker. The big issue is about to become playing time. Troy Tulowitzki is already back from the DL, and Clint Barmes is about to rejoin the Rockies. That means Baker will be heading to a reserve role, and it figures to stay that way for him unless Barmes comes back cold or someone else gets hurt. The other option for Baker is RF, where he could well grab starts against lefties in a platoon as Brad Hawpe is having a lousy season and often struggles against southpaws.

Baker should at least be a safe option this week, as the Rockies are visiting Kansas City and Detroit, meaning they get to use a DH. That’s good news for Baker. I’d go ahead and grab him in hopes that he stays hot and forces his way into expanded duty. But that’s far from a sure thing.

(16) Jose Bautista is surprisingly still floating around in lots of 10 and 12-team leagues. The depth of quality at 3B undoubtedly has quite a bit to do with this. Bautista has always been a tease, in that he looks like a guy who ought to be a borderline star, but he’s been an extremely streaky performer for the Pirates.

But Bautista may finally be figuring things out. He’s 40/128 in this extended run. 20 runs, 7 HR, 25 RBI to go with that big BA is pretty impressive. I’ve pushed Bautista past a handful of 3B who aren’t available in virtually any deep league. Simply stated, if Bautista is still available in your league, I think you’ve got to pick him up.

(27) Grant Balfour had quite a week out of the bullpen for Tampa Bay. Balfour grabbed a pair of wins and overmatched nearly every hitter he faced with a two-pitch arsenal that was basically unhittable. There’s no real reason to obtain Balfour, unfortunately, unless you reside in a very deep AL-only league where he might have some value. But as hot as he’s been, Balfour is strictly a setup type for now and he’s still behind Dan Wheeler as an insurance closer should anything else happen to Troy Percival. That pretty much renders Balfour useless in the normal 5×5 format.

(43) Eric Patterson only had eight AB the past week for the Cubs, but the rookie OF made the most of them. Five hits, a homer and a steal pushed him way up the ratings ladder. But I can’t see much reason to go after Patterson. His playing time figures to be fairly limited. Put Patterson in the emergency only column.

(46) Russell Branyan continues to amaze. He’s now homered 10 times in just 70 AB. Branyan has also whiffed 26 times in that stretch. But the power is undeniable and he’s also added 14 R and 17 RBI.

Branyan is not widely available in any format thanks to this incredible hot streak. So this is directed to those who already own him. If you’re in that category, shop him heavily. Look, I’m a great believer in anything being possible, so I will agree it’s possible this extraordinary roll continues for Branyan. But his history says it won’t, and the ridiculous K rate is a huge indicator that it won’t. Branyan’s value can’t possibly be higher than it is right now. Trade him, as a correction to the norm seems inevitable to me.

(49) Brandon Boggs went wild when he first got called up by the Rangers earlier this year. He came out of the gate with a 15/39 run that got plenty of fantasy attention. But Boggs settled down pretty quickly and hadn’t done much until a mini-surge this past week. Don’t read much into it. Boggs is a reserve OF for the Rangers and will return to that role as soon as Milton Bradley is healthy enough to resume regular activity. No reason to go after Boggs, and even if he plays regularly, he’s got limited upside.

(50) Jorge De La Rosa has been close to spectacular in his last two starts for the Rockies. 11 IP, 5H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 18 K! A search party needs to be put together immediately to find out who abducted the real De La Rosa, as this pitcher has to be an impostor with those amazing numbers. Mark this down as a complete fluke. De La Rosa is not a big strikeout type and in fact he’s never been more than a fringe big leaguer. There’s no reason to add De La Rosa, even as a quick fix.

Feedback and questions should be addressed to me at: espnradio1100@gmail.com. Back with more on Tuesday!

Tags: Baker, Balfour, Barmes, Bautista, Boggs, Bradley, Branyan, De La Rosa, Hawpe, Patterson, Percival, Tulowitzki, Wheeler

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/20/08

NEW SKIPPERS, NEW ATTITUDE?

Two managerial firings in the last few days means two new decision makers in the dugout for a couple of teams. Willie Randolph is out for the Mets and Jerry Manuel is in. Seattle made the expected maneuver yesterday, with Jim Riggleman taking over for the beleaguered John McLaren. Both new skippers are carrying the interim tag, but we’ve seen many occasions where some improved play can lead to the new manager getting the temp label removed.

I like Manuel’s chances of invigorating the Mets. Let’s face it, this team just never recovered from the September ‘07 meltdown. Not only didn’t they play well this season under Randolph, they didn’t appear to be having any fun. The dugout shots usually showed the Mets players just sitting around, and there was a general malaise that was rather obvious. The Mets I saw Wednesday night as they rallied to beat the Angels were a completely different entity. There was a sense of excitement throughout the game, with players moving to the steps or the railing to get closer to the action. When they came back in the ninth inning against stud Halos closer Francisco Rodriguez to force extra frames, they were pumped up and winning it in the tenth was big for this team.

Manuel has a rep as a laid back individual, and that’s not a bad thing at all for the Mets. This team has played under a cloud all season. Having an easy going guy running the show will alleviate some of the pressure, and I expect the Mets to loosen up and start playing much improved baseball.

Riggleman’s situation in Seattle doesn’t conjure up nearly the same sense of optimism. I believe he’ll create an increased sense of urgency, as this is clearly a team that needs a guy who’s willing to crack the whip. But beyond the Hernandez/Bedard combo at the top of the rotation and flamethrowing Brandon Morrow emerging as a bullpen anchor, there’s not much to get excited about for fans of the Mariners. The offense is still going to be substandard and the back of the rotation is terrible. Add in the fact that the Mariners have an interim GM as well, and it’s a real long shot that Riggleman manages the team past this season.

DEJESUS DELIVERING

Big things were predicted for David DeJesus when he first arrived on the scene in Kansas City. DeJesus looked like a prototypical leadoff hitter in the making. Decent power, lots of speed and an ability to put the ball into play that would translate into a very solid OBP.

But in roughly four seasons as the primary CF for the Royals, DeJesus never improved on his rookie numbers. Not that he was a disaster by any means, he just stayed the same. Heading into this season, it seemed simple enough to pencil DeJesus in for a .280 BA, a handful of homers and steals and close to 100 runs batting in the first slot. Not great, not horrible. Just kind of in between.

That may be changing to some extent. DeJesus is on pace for his best season. He’s on pace to deliver perhaps as many as 20 HR, looks like a good bet to hit .300 and he’s actually turning into what the Royals envisioned from him as he was making his way through the system. About the only area where DeJesus isn’t progressing is on the bases, where he’s still only a 50% base stealer. Apparently, this is something he just doesn’t have the knack for and it’s now doubtful he’ll ever turn into a real threat in that category.

But I like the more aggressive approach DeJesus is otherwise flashing and suspect he could be nice under the radar target in deep fantasy leagues. He’s not likely to be found on any waiver wires, but I don’t think he’d be that tough to obtain, particularly if you can get him included as an extra piece in a multi-player swap. Explore the possibilities.

HARANG GETTING BANGED

Aaron Harang had another poor outing on Thursday. He’s been written up as a great buy low candidate by fantasy analysts at numerous sites, but I’m going to have to stray from that popular viewpoint and play devil’s advocate.

There are lots of things to like about Harang and off his last two seasons, the buy low tag seems applicable. But I’m seeing signs of decline. Without intending to denigrate those who plunge headlong into statistics to arrive at their conclusions, I don’t think there’s anything more revealing that watching a pitcher to determine whether a sudden rise or fall from that individual’s norm is legit or just a fluke.

In Harang’s case, I think those looking at his still impressive BB/K rate and therefore concluding he’s just getting unlucky are not seeing the real story. True enough, Harang is right on pace as far as his walks and  strikeouts are concerned. In his last seven appearances, Harang has worked 36.1 IP (one of those outings was a four inning bullpen stint in a marathon game where Cincy ran out of relievers). His BB/K rate in those games is a superb 7/35. But he’s also given up an alarming 56 hits in that span. And he’s also allowed 27 earned runs in that stretch, which is pretty awful.

I’m not seeing the same Aaron Harang I’ve see the last two seasons. He’s down the middle on way to many pitches. So while his control is as good as ever, his command clearly is not as he’s wild in the strike zone. The velocity is okay, so he’s still going to get his swings and misses, thus the K rate is being maintained. But unless he can once again start hitting the corners or better yet, start getting hitters to flail at pitches out of the strike zone, continued trouble looms for Harang.

From a fantasy standpoint, if you own Harang, you have to keep him and hope for the best. But if you’re not saddled with him, I wouldn’t be actively pursuing him.  Buying low is a great philosophy if there’s a big spike possibly forthcoming, but in Harang’s case I’m just seeing that as a real likelihood right now.

FELIPE LOPEZ SIGHTING

Turn back the clock to 2005, and Felipe Lopez was one hot commodity. The numbers were almost staggering. .291/97/23/85/15 made him a prized middle infielder and he was a popular early selection in ‘06 drafts. While there was some decrease that season, Lopez still maintained big value thanks to 44 steals. Last season Lopez fell off in all categories, and even his 24 SB couldn’t prevent him from getting cast to the scrap heap in many leagues.

Lopez has had only negative value this season. He’s not hitting for average, there’s no power and he’s only got four steals. Plus, he’s hitting seventh on a bad Washington offense. So how come I’m writing about Felipe Lopez today? Well, there are some signs of life all of a sudden. Lopez homered Thursday and now owns a ten-game hitting streak.

I wouldn’t race to the free agent pool to obtain Lopez just yet unless you’re lucky enough to have room for a speculative pickup that you don’t have to play every day. Personally, I just picked him up in my 15-team mixed league, but all I had to give up was Yuniesky Betancourt and his totally empty .280 BA. It’s a nothing to lose proposition for me, and I happen to have a big enough lead in that league to go ahead and take some end of the roster shots.

But I would definitely start monitoring Lopez to see if the steals begin to reappear. If they do, he’s a decent target, especially with 2B/SS/OF eligibility.

Feedback and questions are encouraged. Drop me a line at espnradio1100@gmail.com. I’ll be back with more Hardcore Monday morning. Enjoy the weekend!

Tags: Betancourt, DeJesus, Harang, Lopez, Manuel, McLaren, Randolph, Riggleman

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/19/08

NEVER GIVE UP THE SHIP!

The headline above pertains to the apparent thought process of Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy. Sabean is the GM who decided Barry Zito was worth a boatload of money and gave it to him in a widely criticized signing back in December 2006. Bochy is the manager of the Giants who keeps sending Zito out to the mound every fifth day despite his astonishingly awful numbers.

Barry Zito made his big league debut for the Oakland A's back in 2000 and was nothing short of sensational from the outset. Through the completion of the 2002 campaign, Zito was an amazing 47-17. His ERA was less than 3.00, he averaged about 8K's for every 9 innings of work and his patented curve was the best in the game. It really appeared as though Zito was on his way to an incredible career that would certainly culminate with his enshrinement in Cooperstown five years following his retirement.

When Zito struggled for the first few months of the 2003 season, there was no real cause for concern. Despite a somewhat shocking 8-10 ledger heading into the last couple months of the campaign, it wasn't as though Zito was getting lit up. The ERA was still well above average, and opposing hitters weren't hitting him any better than they had previously. When the lefty closed the year with 6-2 stretch run, everyone assumed it was back to business as usual. But the fact is there was at least one minor warning sign. Zito's strikeout rate took a big drop that year. And as it's turned out, that seemingly insignificant blip turned out to be a harbinger of things to come.

From the end of the 2003 season through the completion of his tenure in Oakland, Zito was a decent middle of the rotation starter. 41-34 over his last three years with the A's, a 3.99 ERA, and 200+ innings each year. There's nothing at all wrong with those numbers. Zito had settled into a role and was doing well enough as what amounts to a prototypical #3 starter. An innings eater who never missed a start, and would usually do well enough to give his team a chance to win the game.

Everyone knew Zito was finished with the A's following the '06 season. Oakland never pays big dollars to retain talent, and they certainly weren't about to break from tradition to give Zito ace money in light of his now established status as a middling lefty starter. Zito figured to get a decent contract from some team, as he was still a worthwhile commodity. But the Giants evidently saw something no other organization did, as they opened the vault for Zito, signing him to a seven-year, $126 million contract with an option for an eighth year. That's not just a big contract. It was an historically big contract, the highest for any pitcher in the history of the game!

Why the Giants made this move was beyond comprehension when it happened. A desperation move to try and get Barry Bonds one more shot at a World Series as his days in San Francisco wound down? I sure don't have the answer. All I know is that, like most analysts, I thought Sabean had lost his mind and that this move might eventually cost him his job.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to be on target with that last comment. The Giants have already seen a major change at the top, with longtime head honcho Peter Magowan forced out a couple of months ago. That almost certainly means sweeping changes this off-season, and I'll be astounded if Sabean is still the Giants GM by the end of this calendar year.

As for Zito, it's been a disaster. His 11-13, 4.53 2007 showing was worse than it looked. Career high ERA, career low K's and just a further decline from where he had been the last few years. Sadly, the Giants would be ecstatic with even those numbers now. Following another horrid outing Tuesday in which the Giants pinch-hit for Zito in the second inning, he's 2-11. The ERA is now 6.32, the WHIP is 1.93, and the BB/K ratio is a brutally bad 48/40.

Yet Bochy keeps sending Zito out for his regular turns. That means he's either blind to what's painfully clear, or Bochy is under orders from above to leave Zito in the rotation. Take your pick. Either choice is unacceptable. There may be no solution to this dilemma. If it were me, I'd try Zito in the bullpen for awhile. Maybe he can find some kind of role there, even if it's as a situational lefty. That's not going to get the Giants $126 million worth, but it's better than nothing, right? Either that or just cut him, because it's 100% that no one is trading for Zito and that monster contract.

Or maybe Zito could just retire. I realize he's not an old man, and I'm sure he's doing his best. But he's just plain awful at this point. Walking away from those monster bucks wouldn't be easy, but shouldn't professional pride enter the picture at some point? I don't see how he can look his teammates in the eye right now.

All in all, the Zito signing now rates as the worst in baseball history, considering the cost and results. I suppose it's always possible Zito will find some magic potion and regain his command and his ability to pitch at the big league level. But I sure wouldn't bet on it.

GONZALEZ SAVES THE DAY

Mike Gonzalez finally made it back to a major league mound Wednesday night and nailed down the save for the Braves as they topped the Rangers. His elbow miseries behind him, the gritty southpaw's return could not come at a better time for the Braves, as their staff has been ravaged by injuries. Gonzalez is a must-grab in all formats for any owner in need of closer help.

KOLOSSAL KUBEL

Pardon the spelling, but Twins DH/OF Jason Kubel rates some kind of sensational header right now. He's on fire. Kubel was a monster prospect a few years back following a breakout 2004 campaign at both the AA and AAA levels. But a serious knee injury kayoed him for all of 2005, and Kubel has never approached the stardom predicted for him since his return. That may be changing at long last.

Granted, it's a small sample, but Kubel is absolutely killing the ball right now. He's 14 for his last 39 with four homers with 10 runs scored and 10 RBI. Maybe this is just a hot surge and Kubel goes right back to where he's been the last couple years. But if he's finally found his swing again, watch out. This is a guy who was pegged as a .290+ hitter with 25-30 HR potential to boot. If Kubel is available in your league, take the plunge. You can always cast him back to the heap if this turns out to be a fluke. But if it's the start of something substantial, you'll have scored yourself a major bargain that could pay big dividends the rest of the season. Definitely worth the gamble.

Address your feedback and questions to me at: espnradio1100@gmail.com. I'll be back tomorrow with a feature on a talented semi-bust who's tracking toward a career year and is absolutely worth pursuing!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/18/08

OVERACHIEVING ORIOLES

I’m pretty confident about my opinions as a rule, and that’s particularly true when it comes to baseball. But that sure doesn’t mean that I’m right all the time! One of my strongest 2008 predictions was that the Baltimore Orioles would spend the season residing at the bottom of the AL East. That wasn’t exactly going out on a limb, either. About the only people not picking the O’s as cellar dwellers were those missing the boat on how improved the Tampa Bay Rays were going to be.

Here we are, nearing the midway point of the season, and the Orioles are not in last place, but they’re also sporting a winning record, and that’s a huge surprise to me. Baltimore is now 35-34 after another thrilling win on Tuesday night.

If you take a gander at their roster, it’s really hard to comprehend what’s taking place with this team. They’re simply not very good on paper. Their best starting pitcher is Jeremy Guthrie. He’s certainly an adequate big leaguer, but definitely not an ace. The closer, George Sherrill, was tabbed long ago as a situational lefty and that’s about it. After slamming the door on the Astros Tuesday evening, Sherrill is now 23/25 in save opportunities and barring a sudden collapse over the next couple weeks, he’ll be wearing an All-Star uniform shortly. The O’s have only one .300 hitter on the roster, utility IF Alex Cintron, and he’s only gotten a handful of AB’s off the bench. The Orioles lack a big HR threat, and although they do have several players with decent power, there’s no one who strikes fear into opposition pitchers.

So how are the O’s getting it done? Two stats stand out. After accruing a pathetic 13-31 mark in one-run contests last season, the Orioles are a robust 16-10 this year.  More importantly, this team simply doesn’t quit. Te Tuesday victory over the Astros marked the 16th time this season that Baltimore has overcome a two-run deficit to win. That’s almost half their overall victories, which is a pretty staggering percentage.

For those who don’t think managers make that much of a difference, think again. Dave Trembley has not only been pushing all the right buttons, but he’s also instilled a sense of pride in this team. The Orioles are fundamentally sound, and they’re a very enthusiastic bunch.  I watch as many games as I’m able to, and it’s easy to see how much fun this team is having at the ballpark almost every day.

The Orioles could well end up at the bottom of the AL East when the dust settles. They simply don’t have as much talent as any of the other teams in that sector. But if eventually do sink back to the cellar, it won’t be for a lack of effort. They’re one of the best stories of the ‘08 season to date.

SWEET SWINGING SWEENEY

Ryan Sweeney enjoyed another big game for Oakland Tuesday night, and is stamping himself as a viable fantasy performer as he continues to play well. Sweeney was doing well prior to a stint on the disabled list. He’s picked right where he left off since returning, and then some. Sweeney is now hitting .307, and he’s stealing bases and scoring a load of runs thanks to a move to the #2 hole in the A’s lineup.

This isn’t a fluke. Sweeney was the top rated prospect in the White Sox organization heading into 2007. He didn’t live up to billing in a very limited trial last season, and GM Kenny Williams went big name hunting this winter, including Sweeney in a three for one swap with the A’s that landed the Chisox Nick Swisher. It’s too early to close the file on this trade, but early returns indicate that Oakland’s Billy Beane got the best out of the latest riverboat gamble concocted by Williams.

Sweeney is not likely to be a big power guy at any point, but I envision him as 15-HR type eventually. Add in a consistent .280-.300 BA and 20-25 SB and you’ve got yourself a rock solid everyday OF who won’t hurt anyone’s fantasy roster, either. If he’s available and you’re in need of a fifth OF, go get him.

TEAHEN TUMBLING

Heading into the 2007 season, Mark Teahen was star in the making for the Royals. Teahen was lights out down the 2006 stretch run, and loomed as a considerable five-tool threat who could function at a variety of positions. In just under 400 ‘06 AB, Teahen hot .290, blasted 18 long balls and swiped 10 bags. In that this was just his second year with substantial big league opportunities, Teahen became a somewhat coveted mid-round fantasy grab in the 2007 drafts.

He wasn’t awful by any stretch last season for the Royals, but Teahen was nevertheless somewhat of a disappointment. The .285 BA was acceptable, as were the 13 SB. But only seven HR and 60 RBI was way below expectations, and was unacceptable for a corner OF.

Coming into this season, Teahen was no longer a hot commodity, but he was still looked upon as a decent later round grab who wouldn’t hurt. Nearly midway through this season, it now appears even those hopes for Teahen are being dashed. He’s hitting just .252 with six home runs and a paltry two stolen bases.

I think it’s worth noting that Teahen was basically given away by Billy Beane and the A’s back in 2004. Beane just doesn’t send prospects packing, and his leash with potential risers is about as long as you’ll ever see. Yet he was willing to send Teahen off to the Royals in ‘04 and all he was getting in return in a three-team deal that also involved the Astros was reliever Octavio Dotel. What once appeared to be a rare Beane blunder is now looking more and more like another case where he didn’t see what others were seeing, and it turns out his vision was on the money.

My advice to Teahen’s fantasy owners at this point would be to bite the bullet an cut him loose. There are just too many useful fifth or sixth OF types in even deep league free agent pools to retain a guy who just isn’t giving you anything positive right now.

PARRA-LYZING

Manny Parra had another really nice outing for the Brewers Tuesday night. That’s five sharp starts in the last seven tries for Parra. There are still occasional control issues for the hard-throwing southpaw, but they’re becoming more the exception than the norm. Parra has major upside. He’s got a prolific offense behind him, especially when the Brewers are at home. Even when he gets knocked around, Parra will at least likely garner lots of K’s for his fantasy owners, as he’s averaging just short of one punchout per inning.

The BB’s will continue to be a hindrance to his WHIP, and he’ll have a blowup here and there. But he’s going to give you more positives than negatives on balance, and that’s more than enough to make him worthy of back of the rotation fantasy placement in most leagues. He’s even more valuable for those in keeper leagues, as Parra owns legit top of the rotation stuff.

Off this last start, Parra is unlikely to remain unowned in any quality league. If he’s still on the heap in yours, make the move.

Feedback and questions are encouraged! Send yours to me at: espnradio1100@gmail.com

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 06/17/08

BYE, BYE BAVASI

The Seattle Mariners have a Top 10 payroll that’s well in excess of $100 million. They also have the worst record in all of baseball this season. Thus, it was no surprise yesterday when GM Bill Bavasi received the pink slip. This move had been widely speculated for quite some time, with rumors of impending doom for Bavasi circulating back in February immediately following the five for one swap with the Orioles that brought Erik Bedard to the Great Northwest. Bavasi was ripped by virtually every analyst for giving away the store to get Bedard in a deal that appeared to be done out of desperation. The team also overspent badly in the free agent market on the thoroughly mediocre Carlos Silva. Recently, Bavasi re-signed catcher Kenji Johjima to an expensive extension, a huge eyebrow raiser in that the team’s best close to ready prospect is catcher Jeff Clement. I could actually go on for several paragraphs dissecting the litany of pathetic moves made by Bavasi, but why bother? Just take a look at the standings.

The Mariners posted just one winning season under Bavasi’s watch, and most observers felt their  +.500 2007 campaign was more fluke than reality. The 2008 M’s have been a disaster from the outset, replete with reported chemistry issues in the clubhouse and a complete lack of cohesiveness on the field.

GM’s and managers are often sacrificed when the players don’t get the job done. This is not one of those cases. Bavasi made far too many poor decisions and the team he put on the field in Seattle just plain stinks. Sadly, it looks like Mariner fans are in for a very rough stretch in the next few seasons. The minor league system is mostly barren and they’re going to have a tough time moving their high-priced and shopworn veterans. It’s not like there’s going to be a long line for guys like Richie Sexson.

BRONX BUMMER

Chien-Ming Wang is a helluva pitcher, but not much of a baserunner. The talented Yankee right-hander was getting in on the fun Saturday as the Yankees destroyed the Astros, 13-0. But he turned his foot while exploring mostly foreign territory as a baserunner (no DH as this was an Interleague game in an NL stadium) and the Monday test results were bad news for Wang and the Yanks. In addition to a sprained foot, Wang also tore a tendon. That means six weeks on crutches and he’s out till at least September.

This is a huge blow to the team’s playoff chances, but I would not expect GM Brian Cashman to pull a Bavasi and flip the entire farm system for a big name like C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia is a free agent at the end of the season and I do believe the Yanks will go after him hard at that point, but not right now. I’ll rundown the more likely trade targets during today’s baseball hour on the radio show. Listen to ESPNRadio1100 between 2-3PM Pacific for that info.

The Wang injury creates an opportunity for Dan Giese, and this is actually a pretty cool story. Giese has been knocking around the minors since 1999, save for a couple of cups of coffee. He got into eight games late last year with the Giants and actually did very well in a handful of relief innings recently with the Yankees.

What makes the forthcoming start for Giese against the Reds really interesting is that prior to this season, Giese had appeared in 382 games as a pro, and every single one was out of the bullpen. He was moved into the starting rotation several weeks ago down at AAA, and he’s been very impressive. Thus, Giese gets first dibs on the rotation spot previously owned by Wang.

I’m a Red Sox lover, so naturally I can’t stand the Yankees. That said, I hope Giese does well as I always pull for those guys who’ve gotten stuck with the career minor leaguer tag. From a fantasy standpoint, he’s not worthless. Giese seems to have found something this year, and he’s got a big time offense to rely on. He’s also on target to draw Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey as a mound opponent, which gives Giese a great chance to score a win right out of the starting gate.

LIRIANO LOOKS READY!

Francisco Liriano was about the hottest pitching commodity around in 2006 as he exploded upon the scene with the Twins. Liriano was nothing short of amazing as he simply overmatched hitters throughout the campaign. But what was first thought to be a tired arm turned into a significant elbow injury, and the electrifying southpaw had to sit out the entire 2007 season.

Nevertheless, Liriano was a hot target this spring in fantasy drafts, as his rehab appeared to be smooth sailing. He struggled some in spring training for the Twins, but opened the season with the big club. Unfortunately, it became very clear right away that the ‘08 Liriano didn’t have much in common with the ‘06 Liriano and following a few really bad outings, he was sent to the minors to try and put the pieces back together. When he continued to struggle down on the farm, some major worries started to take hold, as there’s a lengthy list of potential star pitchers who’ve never been the same after going under the knife.

Here’s some great news on Liriano. It looks as though he’s on the way back. Over his last four starts at Rochester, Liriano has allowed only 24 baserunners in 25.2 IP and he’s racked up 26 K’s. His last start was the best yet, as he didn’t issue a single walk.

My guess is that the Twins would like Liriano to get a few more good starts in before he’s recalled. But with Nick Blackburn hurt and Livan Hernandez simply horrendous, the timetable for Liriano’s return may get moved up. Check the free agent pool in your league. If he’s available, grab him now. There’s still some gamble involved here, but the upside potential is massive.

Feedback and questions are always encouraged. Send yours to espnradio1100@gamil.com and I’ll definitely try to respond!