Dave Cokin

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 7/10/09

It’s time for my NL first half awards rundown. Unlike the AL, where I thought the choices were clear cut, only the NL MVP is a cinch. The other three selections required lots of thought and analysis, and compelling arguments can be made for players other then the ones I went with. Here’s the rundown.

MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals. Simply stated, Pujols is the best player in the game, and that’s a declaration that can’t even be debated. He’s on his way to a possible Triple Crown run, and even by Pujols standards, this is a remarkable performance. Pujols has a chance to eclipse Roger Maris as the single season HR leader outside of the steroid era, he’s driving in runs at a phenomenal clip, and he’s even stealing bases. Plus, Pujols has played outstanding defense for the Redbirds. It’s a privilege to be able to watch one of the best players ever on a daily basis.

Cy Young: Dan Haren, Diamondbacks. Actually, this one is so close it may come down to Haren’s start tonight against the Marlins. There are several NL starters having tremendous campaigns, with Haren and Tim Lincecum at the top of the heap. Lincecum is the more spectacular pitcher. It seems only a matter of time before he throws a no-hitter. But I feel Haren has had the best first half this year. He has an amazing 16 quality starts already, he leads the league in ERA and WHIP and Haren is permitting a phenomenally low .194 average thus far. So I’m going with Haren for my first half Cy by the slimmest of margins over Lincecum, and if Haren has a bad game tonight, I might change my mind.

NL Position Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus, Cardinals. Another tough choice, but a strong surge over the past month gets Rasmus to the top of the list. No question he’s benefiting from hitting ahead of Pujols, but Rasmus is also taking advantage of the opportunity. He’s still got work to do against lefties, but Rasmus has a huge ceiling and really looks as though he’s heading for stardom.

NL Rookie of the Year Pitcher: Randy Wells, Cubs. Unquestionably a shocker. Wells was basically brought up to the big club as an emergency starter and figured to back in Iowa before long. Instead, he’s sitting at 4-3 and could just as easily be 10-1. Wells has been that good. He’s not blessed with great stuff, but Wells really knows how to grind and is extremely efficient. It’s been a lousy first half for the Cubs, but Wells has been their silver lining, and he’s very possibly the main reason the team is still in the hunt in the NL Central.
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The Blue Jays appear to be toast at this point. Management has sent the message they don’t think the team can win and are ready to break them up, and the result is a team that’s got very little focus right now. The Orioles have been capable at home and I like their chances of grabbing a win tonight.

I’m taking my personal All-Star hiatus and won’t be blogging until next Thursday. The free plays will remain up on a daily basis, however. Just call 1-888-567-7660 for those opinions. Meanwhile, enjoy the break!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 7/9/09

We’re at the halfway mark of the season, so it’s time for my first half awards. I’ll hand out four in each league, MVP, Cy Young plus two Rookies of the Year, one for a position player, one for a pitcher. Today I’ll concentrate on the American League, and the NL will follow tomorrow.

AL MVP: Torii Hunter, Angels. The Halos are just one game out of first in the AL West. They’d be looking at a much greater deficit without the immense contributions of Hunter. He’s having a phenomenal season. He’s on pace for what would be by far his best offensive campaign. Hunter remains a superb defender and he’s won at least a couple of games with his glove. There’s probably not a better clubhouse guy in all of baseball. Considering the enormous problems on the Angels pitching staff, they’re still in great shape to win their division yet again, and Hunter is clearly the biggest reason why.

AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Royals. Sure, he’s leveled off a little since his mind boggling April. But Greinke remains the clear choice for the top AL pitcher at the halfway mark. He’s got a great shot at the pitching Triple Crown, as he’s just one win behind league leader Tim Wakefield, he’s got a commanding lead in ERA and only Justin Verlander has more strikeouts. All that while pitching on a woeful team. Greinke is an easy choice for the first half AL Cy Young.

AL Rookie Position Player of the Year: Elvis Andrus, Rangers. He’s been okay offensively, which was the main concern for Andrus coming into the season. Defensively, Andrus is already a star. He’s transformed the Texas infield with his amazing range, and that in turn has provided a huge boost to the Rangers pitching. Andrus won’t turn 21 until next month, and his ceiling is incredibly high. I really think we’re seeing the birth of a superstar here, as his bat will get better with experience and he’s the best defensive SS I’ve seen come into the majors in years.

AL Rookie Pitcher of the Year: Andrew Bailey, Athletics. Talk about a huge surprise, it can’t get much more amazing than Bailey. He was 5-9, 4.32 pitching in AA last season and was just another body in spring training. But the A’s saw enough to promote him to the big club, and Bailey has put together a spectacular season to date. Four wins, nine saves since stepping into the role of closer, terrific ERA and WHIP and 57 K’s in only 48.2 IP. He’s probably been a little bit on the fortunate side, and could decline some as the season wears on, but Bailey’s first half makes him a clear cut winner.
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Manny Parra has been a huge disappointment for the Brewers this season. Coming off a very promising rookie campaign, they were counting on big things from the lefty. But he couldn’t find the strike zone, lost his confidence and eventually had to be optioned out. Parra is now back with the big club off his best effort of the season, a seven inning whitewash at Round Rock where he gave up just two hits and two walks. Obviously, he wasn’t facing Albert Pujols there, and he will here. But with Joel Pineiro on the mound for the Cardinals, I’m willing to give Parra a shot and I’ll back the Brewers.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 7/8/09

I have no idea whether J.P. Ricciardi is a poker player, but if he is, I’ll wager he’s not very good. The Toronto Blue Jays GM sure doesn’t know much about making the most of the cards he’s dealt himself, and he’s way too open when it comes to expressing his thoughts. If you let everyone at the poker table know what you’ve got, you’re toast. And so it goes with running a baseball team, but that’s clearly a lesson Ricciardi still hasn’t learned.

The Blue Jays are operating at a disadvantage in the rugged AL East. Competing with the deep pockets of the Yankees and Red Sox sure isn’t easy. But the fact is that the Tampa Bay Rays have molded themselves into a legitimate contender, and now that they have real baseball people in place, the long downtrodden Orioles are not far away from making a major move of their own. Meanwhile, it’s getting ugly in Toronto. The Blue Jays shocked lots of observers, including me, with their fast start. But it was clear to me it wouldn’t last, and I can see this team coming unhinged in the season’s second half.

I put the blame for this squarely on Ricciardi. He’s made some very bad gambles over the past few seasons, and he’s now left with a mediocre major league roster and a farm system that’s not exactly loaded with top prospects. Ricciardi overpaid to keep Vernon Wells, he made a terrible mistake in giving monster money to B. J. Ryan and beyond that, he keeps sticking his entire foot into his mouth.

There was the ridiculous commentary on Adam Dunn last season, where he ripped a player he didn’t know personally for a perceived lack of passion, and then had to apologize for the diatribe shortly thereafter. I was shocked that a General Manager would get involved in discussing another team’s player in a public forum. That’s just dumb.

It’s also not very smart to announce to the world that you’re ready to deal your best player. Roy Halladay is one of the game’s top pitchers, and I don’t necessarily disagree with the decision to make him available. But doing so publicly is silly and counterproductive. Now that he’s declared to all concerned that Halladay is on the market, he’s operating at a disadvantage. To me, it’s the same thing as playing a hand of poker and showing your cards while everyone else at the table has theirs hidden. You simply can’t win playing the game that way.

Now that Ricciardi has put Halladay on the auction block, he’s virtually forced himself to accept whatever the best offer is, as chances are now very strong that Halladay will want out of Toronto. Ricciardi would have been much better off by quietly exploring the possibilities without tipping his hand. Instead, he has likely boxed himself into a corner and may well be in the process of further alienating an already diminishing fan base.
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The Mets continue to get destroyed, and I’m not buying Oliver Perez as their savior. Hiroki Kuroda is the more reliable pitcher, the Dodgers are obviously in way better form and the Mets fans have completely turned on their team. The home team is a fade till they figure a way out of their funk, so I’ll back the Dodgers tonight.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 7/7/09

I try to keep my analysis strictly objective, and I think I do a pretty good job of keeping any bias out of the equation. But at the same time, I’ve never made any secret of the fact I’m a lifelong Red Sox fan. New England born and bred, and thoroughly obsessed with everything pertaining to my team. I definitely pull for the Patriots, Celtics and Bruins as well, but for me the center stage always belongs to the Red Sox. Always has, always will.

I would have loved to be at Fenway Park on Monday evening to welcome home Nomar Garciaparra. Before the injuries started piling up, Nomar was on his way to a Hall of Fame career. One can’t help but wonder what kind of numbers he’d have put up had he been able to stay healthy. The trade of Nomar to the Cubs back in the summer of 2004 was an extremely unpopular one among most Red Sox fans. Personally, I said the day the trade was made that this was a great move by Theo Epstein, as Nomar was no longer happy in Boston (he’d turned down an extension prior to the season) and there were strong rumblings that he’d become a bit of a problem in the clubhouse. Shortly before the deal, the Red Sox and Yankees played an amazing extra inning game. You may recall the incredible catch of a foul ball by Derek Jeter, where he went crashing into the stands. That took place in that particular game. Some fans might also recall that there was a great camera shot of the Boston dugout where every player was perched on the railing, with one exception. Nomar Garciaparra was seated by himself on the dugout bench. I knew that day that it was time for the Red Sox to deal him, and I was not at all surprised when a trade was consummated shortly thereafter. Plus, that Red Sox team needed a defensive upgrade and acquiring Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz was a stroke of genius by Epstein. That said, saying goodbye to Nomar Garciaparra still wasn’t easy.

The appearance at Fenway last night was the first by Nomar since that trade nearly five years ago. The ovation accorded him by the Red Sox faithful was awesome. Say what you might about Red Sox fans, the one thing that cannot be denied is we remember our own. Unless they leave Boston to sign with the Yankees, which is unacceptable.

And speaking of Yankee fans, what’s with the booing of Andy Pettitte yesterday. Really? What, he hasn’t won enough big games for you guys over the years? I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by this display of ignorance, as the same “fans” actually booed Mariano Rivera early last season after he blew a couple of saves. And there’s the difference between NYY and Red Sox fans. When David Ortiz was struggling through his epic slump earlier this season, there were virtually no catcalls or boos, just encouragement for one of the franchise’s most beloved players ever. I guess Yankee fans hold their players to a different standard.
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I’m sure this particular column will infuriate some Yankee fans, and I don’t want to send anyone off feeling angry. So here’s an awesome joke that ya gotta love, courtesy of my good friend John Cranton.
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A man was at the country club for his weekly round of golf. He began his round with an eagle on the first hole and a birdie on the second.. On the third hole he had just scored his first ever hole-in-one when his cell phone rang. It was a doctor notifying him that his wife had just been in a terrible accident and was in critical condition and in the ICU.

The man told the doctor to inform his wife where he was and that he’d be there as soon as possible. As he hung up he realized he was leaving what was shaping up to be his best ever round of golf.

He decided to get in a couple of more holes before heading to the hospital. He ended up playing all eighteen, finishing his round shooting a personal best 61, shattering the club record by five strokes and beating his previous best game by more than 10. He was jubilant….

Then he remembered his wife. Feeling guilty he dashed to the hospital. He saw the doctor in the corridor and asked about his wife’s condition.

The doctor glared at him and shouted, “You went ahead and finished your round of golf didn’t you!” “I hope you’re proud of yourself! While you were out for the past four hours enjoying yourself at the country club your wife has been languishing in the ICU!

It’s just as well you went ahead and finished that round because it will be more than likely your last! For the rest of her life she will require round the clock care, and you will be her care giver!”

The man was feeling so guilty he broke down and sobbed.

The doctor snickered and said, “I’m just f*cking with you. She’s dead. What’d you shoot?”
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Big series opening tonight between the Cardinals and Brewers. Yovanni Gallardo is pitching great ball for Milwaukee, but Adam Wainwright has been solid as well for the Cardinals. The Brewers have not been especially dominant at home this season, while the Redbirds sport a winning road record. Tough game for sure, but I see some value at the price with the road underdog Cardinals.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 7/6/09

I guess this is where I’m supposed to build my case for the guys I feel may have been snubbed for inclusion in this year’s All-Star Exhibition Game. Fact is, I just don’t care. Don’t get me wrong, I think the All-Star break is fun. The HR Derby, or whatever it’s called these days, is a hoot. And the game itself is a pleasant enough diversion. It’s just not a real game, and everyone except Bud Selig and a few other sadly out of touch folks knows this to be true. Unfortunately, Bud decreed a few years back that this game must have some meaning, so now we have an absurd scenario where home field advantage for the World Series hinges on the outcome of the All-Star Exhibition Game.

This is, I truly believe, the single dumbest thing in the history of sports. I’ll challenge anyone to find something that tops it. I didn’t think it was possible for anyone to come up with an idea more absurd than the ridiculous NFL tuck rule, or college football’s insane taunting penalty (which officials en masse somehow have construed to include virtually any celebration of a touchdown). Bud Selig managed to accomplish this feat following the All-Star tie a few years ago, which only Bud and a few others got all hung up over. The result is that we now have importance attached to a completely insignificant event that is still played like an exhibition. Not only that, but the fans actually get to choose who starts. Like I said, if you can find anything in sports that’s sillier than this, let me know about it.

The irony here is that Selig apparently hasn’t figured out that thanks to Interleague play, the All-Star Exhibition Game is less interesting than it’s ever been. At least there was some intrigue back in the days where the entire 162 game schedule was contested within each individual league. Now, thanks to Interleague action, we get to find out which league is genuinely better on a year to year basis. It’s a far better barometer than one stupid game where the idea is to make sure everyone plays.

So like I said, this was supposed to be the piece where I dissected the selections of the fans and the reserves selected by the managers. But the truth is I can’t pretend to care about any of this. I imagine I’ll watch like I always do, but my primary interest will be on the HR thing on Monday, plus the player intros on Tuesday, which are always pretty cool. After that, well, wake me when the real games get started on Thursday. No matter how you slice it, this one doesn’t count.
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Big series for the Rangers and Angels with things being so close right now in the AL West. The scheduling dynamics here favor the Halos, and they’re also out to avenge the recent series loss at Texas. The Angels are also absolutely clobbering the ball right now and Vlad Guerrero is suddenly getting hot. With Weaver throwing the opener, I will side with the Angels.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 7/3/09

Prior to the start of the 2009 baseball season, I was of the opinion that the Chicago White Sox were going to have a rough time of it, and that they’d be lucky to win 75 games. Considering that I made a pick on every one of the 30 Major League teams, I was obviously going to get several of them wrong. I think it’s pretty safe to say the White Sox are well on their way to a prominent spot on the list of teams I missed on, and it’s looking as though it’s going to be by a wide margin.

Mark Buehrle’s impressive win over the Royals on Thursday night made it six straight wins for the Chisox. They’re now within 2.5 games of the division leading Tigers, and as the campaign hits the midway point, the White Sox are starting to look like the team to beat in the AL Central.

It’s not that this team is without flaws. The offense is only fair, and I’m fairly certain GM Kenny Williams will be on the lookout for another bat as the trade deadline nears. But even if Williams strikes out on that count, I like the chances of this team making a strong run for the division crown and a place in the playoffs.

The key is clearly the outstanding starting pitching the White Sox are getting. Buehrle is doing his usual. He’s seldom spectacular but nearly always reliable, and at 8-2 with an ERA just over 3.00, Buehrle has likely earned a spot on the AL All-Star team. But Buehrle is far from the only tough hurler in this rotation, as the White Sox are currently fielding a top four rotation that’s about as solid as it gets.

Gavin Floyd broke from the gate slowly, but has come on like gangbusters. Over his last eight starts covering 58.1 innings, Floyd has allowed just nine earned runs, and well under one baserunner per inning. He’s given up just 38 hits in that span, with 15 walks, and he’s whiffed 46 hitters.

Jose Contreras was so bad early in the season that it really looked like he might be all done. But Contreras has relocated his stuff and has been amazing over his last five starts since rejoining the big club. In 37.1 IP, Contreras has surrendered only 24 hits and 5 BB, which is kind of ridiculous. His K rate is back up to where it was a couple years ago, which is shocking, and he’s given up only nine earned runs in those last five appearances.

John Danks has gotten his act together after a very disappointing first two months. Over his last four outings, Danks has worked 28.1 innings. He’s allowed only 17 hits and six ER, with a stellar 8/26 BB/K ratio. Danks is now back to where he was for most of the 2008 season, and that’s bad news for opposing hitters.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that the staff can maintain what they’re doing right now. But it’s not impossible, either. Danks is legit, Contreras is still nasty as long as he’s healthy, and Floyd is simply turning out to be a better pitcher than I thought he’d be. And while the offense is not by any means awesome, it’s also not terrible. Jim Thome and Paul Konerko can still rake pretty well, Jermaine Dye is just plain underrated and emerging superstar Alexei Ramirez has really found his stroke after scuffling through April and May. Rookie Gordon Beckham has gotten red hot, and old pro Scott Podsednik has been wreaking havoc in the leadoff spot since making his way back to the White Sox.

Finally, there’s Ozzie Guillen. He may be gruff, foul-mouthed, prone to belittling his players on occasion, and most certainly not being everyone’s cup of tea. But his players perform for him, and Guillen has a knack for pressing the right buttons. He’ll never be invited to join the Diplomatic Corps, but Ozzie can flat out manage a baseball team. And the more I see of the White Sox, the more I’m starting to think Ozzie Guillen and his gang might still be playing baseball come October.
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Homer Bailey walked the proverbial tightrope in his first start back in the bigs. In fairness, he was a little hamstrung by Tim McClelland’s ultra-tight strike zone. But Bailey is going to have to show that he can control his pitch count and throw strikes if he’s going to win at this level. Joel Pineiro usually keeps his team in the game, and I’m going to have to look the Cardinals way to get the best of the Reds tonight.

The free opinions for Saturday and Sunday can be found on a recorded message at 1-888-567-7660. Meanwhile, here’s wishing everyone a happy and healthy Independence Day weekend!

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 7/2/09

The New York Mets are an absolute mess. Sure, they’re only two games out of the lead in the stunningly mediocre NL East. They’re just one game under .500 at 38-39 despite an unending rash of injuries and an embarrassing display of fundamental blunders that have cost them a handful of wins. But don’t be misled. This is a team with all kinds of problems, and as it turns out, their presence in a monster market where demands for immediate success could prove to be a gigantic headache for management.

I’m of the opinion that the Mets are in need of a substantial overhaul, which is a viewpoint that’s at odds with most observers, particularly those who may be too close to the scene to really see what’s happening here. The easy explanation for the mediocrity presently on display is to blame the injuries to key personnel and to also point to glaring mistakes that have taken place on the field. I’ll buy that to a certain extent. Yes, the Mets would likely be atop their division with a healthy roster. The Luis Castillo dropped pop fly cost them a game. The Daniel Murphy fly ball calamity was brutal. Ryan Church missing third base was a disaster. Mariano Rivera’s first career RBI on a walk courtesy of closer Francisco Rodriguez was a head shaker that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. But all those events simply provide a convenient smokescreen for what’s really going on here. The fact is, the Mets have a multitude of woes and while they may be a playoff contender at the midway point of the 2009 season, they’re not a very good team and there’s precious little help on the way.

Putting it bluntly, the Mets farm system stinks. AAA Buffalo is hideous. They can’t hit, nor can they pitch. Things aren’t much better at AA Binghamton. There are only two big time prospects in the entire organization at this point. Fernando Martinez is the only consensus Top 50 guy, and he’s already with the big club. Wilmer Flores is the only other Mets farmhand who might have a really high ceiling, and that’s not at all a unanimous opinion among scouts. Flores is only 17, so there’s loads of room for growth. But he’s shown no power and he has below average speed. The rest of the organization is littered with prospects who have not lived up to prior billing or simply weren’t that special to begin with. In other words, if the Mets are hoping for help from within, they may as well forget it. The talent just isn’t there.

I’m making a short story long here, so I’ll just get to the point, and point the finger at the real culprit who has to shoulder the blame for the mess that is the Mets right now. That would be Omar Minaya, who I’ve long believed to be the most overrated GM in the business. For reasons I’ve never comprehended, Minaya has earned a rep as a tremendously sharp operator. I can’t see it. I gave Minaya a pass for the catastrophic Bartolo Colon deal back when Minaya was running the Expos. The franchise was in shambles and Minaya decided to completely mortgage the future in a desperate attempt to save the team with a quick fix. Under the circumstances, even though it was a really awful trade, there were mitigating conditions.

No such excuses for the succession of bad moves Minaya has made with the Mets. He wildly overpaid for Carlos Beltran, who’s a good player but is not a superstar outside of fantasy baseball. He basically outbid himself for the services of Pedro Martinez, giving him a huge four-year deal when no one else was even considering offering a contract of that length for that kind of money. He took the bait on Oliver Perez, and then incredibly resigned him this winter for big bucks, despite the fact that Perez has firmly established himself as nothing more than an erratic .500 pitcher. There’s plenty more, but I don’t want to turn this piece into a book. But I can’t omit Minaya’s destruction of the farm system, as he’s given away draft picks and has now left himself with almost nothing of note to offer should he be looking to deal this summer.

The only argument I’ll accept on the other side is that Minaya’s hands are tied. He works in a market that won’t tolerate the idea of building properly if that means being a mid-pack entry for a couple of years. But the truth is that the Mets ARE a mid-pack entry at this juncture and I can’t see much reason for realistic optimism. It’s not just the injuries, nor is it a run of bizarre mistakes that have cost them some games, nor is it the two September collapses of the past two seasons. The problems for this team go much deeper than that, and until they’re recognized and properly addressed, I can’t see the Mets as anything more than pretenders who continue to fall short of unrealistic expectations.
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There’s not much to cheer about for Padres fans, but the team is getting some outstanding pitching from two unexpected sources. Kevin Correia and Chad Gaudin have been doing some outstanding work lately, and Correia looks for another good start today. Wandy Rodriguez won’t be easy for the punchless Padres to solve, but San Diego is at least respectable at home and I give them a decent shot at a win in today’s series finale.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 7/1/09

I can hardly believe I’m saying this, but the Pittsburgh Pirates may actually have made a smart deal on Tuesday. The Bucs completed a four-player swap with the Washington Nationals, and for once the eternally woeful Pirates have a chance to win a deal.

Let’s be clear that the key player in the trade, Lastings Milledge, is anything but a sure thing. He’s had maturity issues at every stop and he’s not exactly the most fundamentally sound player you’ll ever see. But Milledge also has all kinds of talent, and if his mind ever catches up to his body, the Bucs may have themselves a star. Milledge appeared ready to have a breakout 2009 off the way he wrapped up last season. But he got off to a terrible start, ended up getting sent down by the Nats, and then got hurt.

The downside to Milledge is substantial. Whatever lessons he should have learned by this time have seemingly gone unheeded, and I think that explains why the Nationals were happy to sell him cheap. But there is at least a chance for Milledge to realize what is some pretty vast potential. Given the Pirates current state, and considering how little they gave up in this deal, I think even the disgusted Pittsburgh fan base should be satisfied with this transaction. The fact Jack Wilson and several of the current Pirate players aren’t happy has to be dismissed, as they had a bond with the guys that just got dealt, and therefore they have a built in bias that makes any objectivity doubtful.

As for the other players in the deal, the Pirates also obtained pitcher Joel Hanrahan, while the Nats picked up lefty reliever Sean Burnett and OF Nyjer Morgan. Morgan has come on nicely, and I can see him having some use in Washington. His speed will play well defensively and he can make things happen on the bases. Morgan is limited offensively. He has no power at all, and his average has been dropping as opposing pitchers have begin to figure him out. I don’t see Morgan as much more than a fourth outfielder.

The Nationals probably win the pitcher side of this swap, although it’s hardly a blowout. Burnett has had a decent campaign, as he’s finally stayed healthy, and he looks as though he’s good enough to carve out a niche as a late-inning lefty specialist. I am not especially high on Hanrahan, who’s basically a one-trick pony with a good fastball and not much else. Hanrahan’s control is also an ongoing issue. I’d be surprised if Hanrahan emerges as anything more than a long relief innings eater and my instincts tell me he’s actually more a Quad-A than a big leaguer.

The Pirates also made a deal with the Yankees, sending Eric Hinske to the Bronx for a couple of lower level prospects. Hinske didn’t have much value with the Pirates, but he could be a nice asset off the bench for the Yankees. They didn’t have to give up much to pry him away from Pittsburgh, as neither OF Eric Fryer nor P Casey Erickson are likely to be big league contributors. Fryer has struggled with the bat at Hi-A and Erickson has a 1.45 WHIP at Low-A and doesn’t seem to miss many bats. It’s clearly a win for the Yankees as at least Hinske can eat up some innings when one of the regulars needs a break. But I also won’t fault the Pirates here, as it’s not like they were going to get anything of substance for Hinske and he was not serving them any notable purpose.
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Just in case you missed it, the Giants won again Tuesday, beating up Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter in the process. The longer the Giants stay in the playoff chase, the more I feel they’re emerging as the favorite in the Matt Holliday sweepstakes. They have the prospects to entice Billy Beane and the A’s, and I believe the Giants might well feel they have a chance to sign Holliday long term, which makes them an even more serious contender to land this summer’s biggest prize.
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Things aren’t exactly going well for the Cubs, but one silver lining for the team has been the pitching of unheralded Randy Wells. He got brought up for what amounted to an emergency start a while back, and proceeded to chisel out a spot in the Cubs rotation. In fact, Wells has been the team’s best pitcher since his arrival. Virgil Vazquez just scored his first big league win in a very solid showing against the Royals, but I’m not a believer and expect the Cubs to nail him tonight. Wells and Cubs are the opinion.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/30/09

At least it was fun while it lasted. I know there are three months still remaining before the curtain comes down on the 2009 regular season. And a quick look at the current standings in the AL West would certainly lead one to believe there’s a great chance for a dynamite three-team duel for the division title between the Angels, Rangers and Mariners. But I can’t help but believe that this race is already over and that what takes place hereafter is little more than a mere formality. The Angels look like a cinch to pull away and win the division in cakewalk fashion.

The Halos were highly vulnerable early thanks to a series of injuries that left them with a very depleted starting rotation. Fact is, I doubt that the starting pitching will be a great source of strength for this team, and with a shaky bullpen, let’s just say that the Angels aren’t exactly built for the playoffs. But I don’t see any way that their three AL West cohorts have the stuff to wrest the title away from the Angels.

The Rangers have gotten unexpectedly good pitching, as Mike Maddux has worked wonders with a very ordinary looking rotation. But he’s not a magician and barring something unforeseen, I have to believe this corps will suffer a second half fade as the innings pile up. Then there’s the Texas offense, which just isn’t producing at anywhere near the level they did a season ago. A healthy return by Josh Hamilton would certainly help, but the Rangers were an amazing offensive entry last year and they just aren’t going to duplicate those numbers this time around. While there’s little question that this is a franchise finally heading in the right direction, they’re still a year away from being legitimate contenders.

Seattle is still on the right side of .500, but I can’t see how that continues much longer. Felix Hernandez has arrived as a dominating #1, but the rest of the rotation is very questionable. Brandon Morrow should continue to improve, but I don’t expect Jason Vargas or Garrett Olson to keep throwing as well as they have. Jarrod Washburn is likely to get dealt, which given the state of the Mariners farm system, seems like a very good idea. Erik Bedard will come back from his latest injury at some point, and he’ll probably look good for a few starts before getting hurt again. Bedard has loads of talent, but he just cannot stay healthy. Even if Seattle maintains a solid rotation, the offense is unlikely to produce enough for them to thrive. The injury to Adrian Beltre is huge. Beltre had really come on following his usual lousy start, and was on 45/137 roll through Sunday’s action. But now it’s off to the operating table for Beltre as he gets his elbow repaired and he won’t be back until September, if at all. Aside from surprising Russell Branyan, there’s precious little power on this team, and the fact is Branyan has never kept it together for an entire season.

As for the Oakland A’s, they’re just about toast already. Matt Holliday will almost certainly be dealt soon as the A’s continue their latest rebuilding procedure. And with that offense that’s currently in in Oakland, let’s just say they need lots of rebuilding.

So it looks to me like clear sailing for the Angels, although I don’t see them having what it takes to win come October.
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Mike Hampton is back from his latest stint on the disabled list to make a start for the Astros. Hampton had been pitching pretty well before getting dinged up physically, and there’s no reason he can’t handle the feeble San Diego offense. Josh Banks makes the start here for the Padres, and he simply hits too many bats with fringy stuff. I can see the heart of the Houston order doing some damage here, and I’ll look for the Astros to win this one.

Dave Cokin's Hardcore Baseball 6/29/09

The first tap out of the 2009 season has taken place. The Cleveland Indians basically tossed in the towel on the campaign with the first of what could be a series of deals designed to improve the team for next year. That’s not a bad idea, as the reality is that this team is simply not good enough to contend at this juncture, so it makes sense to start building for the future.

The one fly in that ointment is that the architects of whatever game plan the Indians have in mind are the same ones that got them into the muck they’re currently mired in. This makes no sense to me. If I’m the owner of a company that’s been failing and I decide it’s time for a new direction, the last people I want directing the overhaul are the same ones that got the company into the sinkhole to begin with.

As for the deal that was consummated over the weekend, the Tribe sent Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for Chris Perez and a player to be named later. It’s not the worst trade of all time for the Indians, but I’ll make the Cardinals a clear cut winner in this swap. DeRosa is a very useful jack of all trades. He can be plugged in virtually anywhere on the field and he’s a damn good hitter. Since the start of the 2006 season, when DeRosa finally earned an everyday role with the Rangers, DeRosa has hit for a solid .289 BA. His power emerged last year when he socked 21 long balls for the Cubs, and he’s on pace to establish new career highs in HR and RBI this season, despite struggling early in the campaign. And the fact is the Indians got him for almost nothing in the off season swap with the Cubs.

Chris Perez has been groomed to be a closer since being drafted in 2006, but he’s yet to establish good enough control to be entrusted with protecting a late lead. He clearly has the stuff to be a finisher but whether he’ll ever master the strike zone is still up in the air. The Indians need the bullpen help, but they’ve got lots of cash tied up in Kerry Wood, and that price tag will make moving Wood difficult. Perez is not a terrible pickup, but the real need for Cleveland is a prospect who can eventually take a spot in their rotation, and that’s not Perez.

It looks to me like the Indians jumped the gun and went for the first offer that came their way. Perez could turn out to be a stud closer down the road, but right now he’s an unknown quantity. DeRosa is an established sure thing. To what should be the surprise of no one, this looks like a clear cut win for the Cardinals.
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The Mets are a bad baseball team right now. They’ve been besieged by injuries and the reality is that they’re becoming more and more of a long shot to remain in contention in the NL East. The rotation is missing a couple of pieces and the offense is nearly devoid of power.

That said, their best player is doing every opposition pitcher he faces a tremendous favor with his new offensive approach. David Wright admits that he’s looking to be more of a gap to gap line drive hitter than a slugger, and I think that’s a huge mistake on his part. Wright’s batting average is up, but his production is down. It’s not like Wright was a feast or famine guy the past several years. He was a .309 career hitter coming into this season, and was a sure bet to be somewhere around the 30 HR mark as well. Add in lots of speed and 40+ doubles four years running, and there’s no question the Mets 3B was established as one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.

Wright is hardly an automatic out this season. But he’s got only four homers and I will guarantee you that every pitcher he’s faced is delighted to not have much fear of Wright nailing him for a four-bagger. Considering the complete lack of power on the Mets right now, Wright’s approach may look okay in the box score, but it’s hurting the team.

There are two solutions to the situation. One is that Wright scraps the current mindset and goes back to pulling the ball more. His BA might drop some, but his production will get back to where it’s supposed to be. The other option is to simply make Wright the leadoff hitter. I know that seems preposterous knowing the power potential Wright owns. But if he’s going to maintain his current approach, he actually is far better suited to that leadoff spot.
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Here’s a look at the free opinion for Monday’s action. The Giants continue to be a major surprise in the NL West. The pitching has been solid, and that’s clearly their primary strength. Of late, they’re getting some timely hitting as well. Tonight it’s their ace, Tim Lincecum, on the mound as they open a set with the Cardinals. Brad Thompson has done serviceable work for the Redbirds, but he’ll be hard pressed to match Lincecum, who’s on a roll. Not much value in the number as Lincecum is a big public pitcher, but I still lean the Giants way tonight.